Alpha Exponent

Assessing businesses for investment
are not investment advice.

[Alpha Exponent @AlphaExponent]

Deepseek the value destroyer

... for hyperscalers wanting to see ROI, Deepseek has reduced the numerator by 95+%, greatly reducing the odds of positive returns

Open-source / open-weight also breaks monopoly pricing power

But for consumers?

The value has shifted to consumers

[Chamath Palihapitiya @chamath]

Let me say the quiet part out loud:

AI model building is a money trap.

What you are seeing here is a feature of modern AI models: there is no bounding law like Moore’s law where advances can be predictably expected. Nor has any model builder adequately publicly explained what to expect sans jargon and BS.

What this means is that it’s very difficult to plan spending programs to create advances and will likely render entire months and possibly years of energy, hardware, R&D, OpEx and CapEx wasted and useless as new innovations are discovered.

Open Source is the clear winner.

Closed source will be forced to keep their best models secret and sell to enterprises OR try and create some incredible consumer app with it.

Having done this before, my lived experience is that this is easier said than done.

Net/net consumers will win, many venture funded efforts will not.

[Alpha Exponent @AlphaExponent]

@gm_mertd We need to hear from Teal

[Alpha Exponent @AlphaExponent]

@teortaxesTex Often it's the abs active param count that matters, no? Feels that there's a soft cap on how low you can go w/o significant degradation

Only do much you can do w/ A3b

But A30b can probably support 1t params nearly as well as 500b

Maybe some log scaling thereafter?

[Alpha Exponent @AlphaExponent]

@Invesquotes Good point

Tho it's valid to believe 1 & also think buying those shares is not a good idea

[Alpha Exponent @AlphaExponent]

@yacineMTB time to turn the tables

[Alpha Exponent @AlphaExponent]

What if the Berkshire bet doesn't pay off?

[David Orr @orrdavid]

Everyone from Paul Tudor Jones to Berkshire Hathaway is panic buying AI stocks.

Never seen anything like that before.

[Alpha Exponent @AlphaExponent]

@moving_charlie @EdmundSimms While the sentiment is understandable, the point may be clearer if explained more along the lines of "running out of real assets", or "issuing an unsustainably high ratio of fiat currency to real assets"

[Alpha Exponent @AlphaExponent]

@BenThePCGuy We see a future where intelligence is a utility like electricity

Intelligence, too cheap to meter

Nut electricity isn't too cheap to meter?

[Alpha Exponent @AlphaExponent]

@joinyellowbrick of $BRK.A

[Alpha Exponent @AlphaExponent]

What better way to maximise hardware usage & sales

Than to give out software for free

Targeted optimizations just the cherry on top

[Lisan al Gaib @scaling01]

Nvidia announcing a 550B model wasn't on my bingo card

They are now the strongest american open-source lab

[Alpha Exponent @AlphaExponent]

Unlikely that it'll only be $GOOG that is cash-constrained

Careful

[*Walter Bloomberg @DeItaone]

ALPHABET ANNOUNCES PROPOSED $80 BILLION EQUITY CAPITAL RAISE TO EXPAND AI INFRASTRUCTURE AND COMPUTE

[Alpha Exponent @AlphaExponent]

Less is more

Economy:  🇰🇵
Army: 🇻🇦
Currency: 🇿🇼
Foreign policy: 🇸🇴

[doomernat @doomernat22]

build your ideal country

Education: 🇳🇴
Economy:🇨🇳
Security: 🇰🇵
Army: 🇷🇺
Health: 🇳🇴
LGBT rights: 🇷🇺
Infrastructure: 🇨🇳
Currency:🇨🇳
Foreign policy: 🇮🇷
Immigration: 🇰🇵
Political system: 🇨🇳
People:🇪🇺

[Alpha Exponent @AlphaExponent]

@wondering_camel The CN RE bubble has already burst - those look to be post-bursting prices, perhaps 30-50% lower vs ATH prices even while incomes advanced

But yes the VN RE bubble is also extremely high & somewhat similar in nature

A controlled deflation would be good for further development

[Alpha Exponent @AlphaExponent]

@investingidiocy @TicketmasterUK use another browser

[Alpha Exponent @AlphaExponent]

It's Europe that is quite far north, not that the US so so far south

Even Miami is 25°, north of the tropics

Tokyo is 35°, Seoul 37°

Tunis (which is ofc in Africa, south of almost all of Europe) is between the two at 36°...!

[Euthenos ♉︎ @Euthenos_]

It's crazy how far south the US is compared to Europe.

How is Chicago further south than ROME. And New York is like Madrid

[Alpha Exponent @AlphaExponent]

@teortaxesTex "People of the same trade seldom meet together... but the conversation ends in a conspiracy against the public, or in some contrivance to raise prices"

- Adam Smith

[Alpha Exponent @AlphaExponent]

@madrush222 True, there's a bit of an in-between state w/ folks using AI for

- polishing up language
- restructuring text etc.

[Alpha Exponent @AlphaExponent]

For those who are agnostic between fantasy & reality, perhaps...?

[Joe Weisenthal @TheStalwart]

I said this to @citrini last night, but in the future, will we really need storage?

I take a ton of photos of my kids, and they are on my phone and in a cloud. But in the future, won't I just tell a model "generate a photo from my son's 7th birthday" and it'll be just as good?

[Alpha Exponent @AlphaExponent]

@investwithwes1 You'll need value-based degeneracy

[Alpha Exponent @AlphaExponent]

@thinkror The thing is: lots of folks may not mind the output so much

... as they may mind the fact that they *know* it's not real

The bliss of ignorance

[Alpha Exponent @AlphaExponent]

degeneracy level: asian

[F @Fabian_v4]

This is why "time in the market beats timing the market" is so damn stupid