The Concord Coalition

We educate, engage and empower citizens with credible, nonpartisan information on the risks and consequences of growing federal debt and fiscal policies.

[The Concord Coalition @ConcordC]

The senators elected in November will be in office when the Social Security trust fund runs out. Has anyone asked them what they'll do about it? @veroderugy says no. #FacingTheFuture

🔗: https://t.co/lpZ379ltBF

[The Concord Coalition @ConcordC]

Fiscal dominance: when the government's debt forces the Fed to prioritize financing Washington's borrowing over fighting inflation.

@JJFichtner explains the vicious cycle, and why the bond market won't stay patient forever. #FacingTheFuture

🔗: https://t.co/lpZ379ltBF

[The Concord Coalition @ConcordC]

Borrow another $600-700B to close the Social Security gap? The bond market notices.

@JJFichtner on how higher borrowing pushes up interest rates for everyone, mortgages, car loans, business loans.

🔗: https://t.co/lpZ379ltBF

#FacingTheFuture

[The Concord Coalition @ConcordC]

Over $1 trillion in projected Medicare Advantage overpayments over the next decade.

Josh Gordon calls fixing this the number one way to control Medicare cost growth, on Facing the Future. #MedicareAdvantage

🔗: https://t.co/8TnLOQwydC

[The Concord Coalition @ConcordC]

No silver bullet fixes Medicare's shortfall.

Josh Gordon tells Facing the Future that slowing health care cost growth takes an all hands on deck approach, not one big fix.

📺: https://t.co/8TnLOQwydC

#Medicare

[The Concord Coalition @ConcordC]

GLP-1 and obesity drugs are driving up Medicare costs right now. Will they pay for themselves later through fewer obesity-related illnesses?

We don't know yet, and current projections don't look that far out. Josh Gordon explains on #FacingTheFuture.

🔗: https://t.co/Pw3Rab48q4

[The Concord Coalition @ConcordC]

Medicare spending per person is now projected to grow FASTER than commercial insurance per person, a reversal of the long-term trend.

Why? The aging of the baby boom generation.

Josh Gordon explains on Facing the Future: https://t.co/8TnLOQwydC

[The Concord Coalition @ConcordC]

"Responsible deficit reduction is better than nothing."

But Bobby Kogan argues that "Irresponsible deficit reduction is worse than nothing." Hear what he says should guide any plan to fix the debt.

@BBKogan on #FacingTheFuture: https://t.co/iWPmYEAm88

[The Concord Coalition @ConcordC]

The internet boosted productivity for about 10-15 years, then it leveled off. Bobby Kogan says AI is likely to follow the same pattern, which means it probably won't fix the debt on its own.

Watch @BBKogan on #FacingTheFuture: https://t.co/iWPmYEAm88

[The Concord Coalition @ConcordC]

Semiconductors. NASA. Decades of basic research that made us all richer.

@BBKogan says that's exactly the kind of investment we lose when research is the first thing cut from the budget.

📺: https://t.co/iWPmYEAm88

[The Concord Coalition @ConcordC]

Within 3 years, the interest rate on our debt is projected to exceed the economy's growth rate. That's the tipping point into what Bobby Kogan warns could lead to calls a debt spiral.

@BBKogan explains on #FacingTheFuture with host Bob Bixby: https://t.co/iWPmYEAm88

[The Concord Coalition @ConcordC]

Bobby Kogan spent years arguing the debt wasn't that big a deal.

Now he says the math has changed: primary deficits are up about 50% since 2017, and interest rates have finally rebounded.

@BBKogan explains on #FacingTheFuture with host Bob Bixby: https://t.co/iWPmYEAm88

[The Concord Coalition @ConcordC]

Social Security's retirement trust fund depletes in 2032.

That's 6 years away.

Benefits drop to 78 cents on the dollar.

Medicare's hospital fund follows in 2033 at 89%.

These aren't distant problems. Congress needs to act now.

@USGAO's Jeff Arkin on #FacingTheFuture: https://t.co/W8wTVxviMB

#SocialSecurity #Medicare

[The Concord Coalition @ConcordC]

To stabilize the debt today: 26% more revenue or 21% less spending. That 21% equals $1.3 trillion in cuts.

Wait 5 years, those numbers get worse. Wait 10, worse still.

GAO's Jeff Arkin on the cost of delay: the runway is getting shorter.

🎧 Listen to the full episode: https://t.co/W8wTVxviMB

#FacingTheFuture #FiscalPolicy

[The Concord Coalition @ConcordC]

High debt isn't new. What's new is that it no longer comes back down.

@usgao's Jeff Arkin explains: debt used to rise during wars or recessions, then fall during recoveries. Not anymore. Even during economic growth, it just keeps climbing.

"All you see is uphills all the way."

More on #FacingTheFuture: https://t.co/W8wTVxviMB

[The Concord Coalition @ConcordC]

The GAO's verdict on the nation's fiscal health: unsustainable.

Debt is growing faster than the economy and will continue to do so indefinitely, according to Jeff Arkin, Director of Strategic Issues at the GAO, on the latest Facing the Future.

The cost is already showing up in higher interest rates.

#FacingTheFuture: https://t.co/W8wTVxviMB

[The Concord Coalition @ConcordC]

Could AI bail out the federal budget?

@AEI's Mark Warshawsky says not quite. More capital investment means upward pressure on interest rates, and at 100%+ debt-to-GDP, that's a bigger deficit, not a smaller one.

📺: https://t.co/72KsKaRPHL

[The Concord Coalition @ConcordC]

Eliminating the payroll cap sounds like a Social Security fix.

@AEI's Mark Warshawsky says it doesn't even fill half the hole.

With a 75-year deficit of 4.4% of taxable payroll, magic bullets won't cut it.

Hear what it actually takes on #FacingTheFuture: https://t.co/lSwgtUBFjb

#SocialSecurity #FiscalPolicy

[The Concord Coalition @ConcordC]

The Social Security trustees cut their fertility assumption, but @AEI's Mark Warshawsky says 1.75 is still too high.

The current rate is 1.56. @USCBO and Census are even lower. Young women now say they plan to have 1.5 kids and the hole keeps getting bigger. https://t.co/lSwgtUBFjb

#FacingTheFuture #SocialSecurity

[The Concord Coalition @ConcordC]

Should Social Security tap general revenues when the trust fund runs out?

@AEI's Mark Warshawsky says no, and calls the delay a political failure 30 years in the making.

Hear why on the latest #FacingTheFuture: https://t.co/lSwgtUBFjb

#ConcordCoalition #SocialSecurity #FiscalResponsibility