Tim Condon

[Tim Condon @CondonTim]

@BrankoMilan The issue is the wildly undervalued RMB, 50% based on the gap between GDP at PPP and market prices. It’s ridiculous that a country at the technological frontier of manufacturing reports a GDP per capita of $13,000.

[Tim Condon @CondonTim]

@KenCao_onChina @YCCMacro Protectionism in China’s trade partners is the biggest threat to Beijing’s policy of exporting its way out of debt deflation.

[Tim Condon @CondonTim]

@MarkSimonHK That’s one way for the real exchange rate to depreciate.

[Tim Condon @CondonTim]

@Brad_Setser Has Germany’s trade in machinery and transport equipment declined in relation to global trade in MTE?

[Tim Condon @CondonTim]

@Noahpinion It’s a monetary problem, not a fiscal one. The monetary system lost its nominal anchor. There’s nothing pinning the yen or bond yields down.

[Tim Condon @CondonTim]

@steve_hanke @MoneyLevelsShow Or, preferably, nominal GDP growth.

[Tim Condon @CondonTim]

@shadihamid Games will occupy more of our time as AI reduces workweeks.

[Tim Condon @CondonTim]

@michaelxpettis An option open only to continental economies.

[Tim Condon @CondonTim]

@Hedgeye Debt deflation is feeding on itself from contracting employment and slowing wage growth in services and construction. Protectionism is the main threat to Beijing’s policy of exporting its way out of debt deflation and avoiding collapse.

[Tim Condon @CondonTim]

@policytensor The World Bank’s East Asian Miracles report acknowledged that protection was constitutive in some miracles. The key was export discipline.

[Tim Condon @CondonTim]

@SanderTordoir It’s the third. The Asian Crisis was the first.

[Tim Condon @CondonTim]

@ggreenwald Credentialism, by enabling those lacking real expertise to join the elite. The system eventually fails from the deteriorated quality of the elite.

[Tim Condon @CondonTim]

@OraculodeCR La presión para apreciar el colon es excesiva en la medida en que proviene del narcotráfico.

[Tim Condon @CondonTim]

@AlanTonelson You’ve got it backwards. In a vent for surplus economy exports are counter cyclical employment policy. Slowing domestic spending growth means faster export growth.

[Tim Condon @CondonTim]

@Brad_Setser Or helping to keep jpy/krw in the desired range.

[Tim Condon @CondonTim]

@vshih2 RIP red chip model.

[Tim Condon @CondonTim]

@izakaminska @FT I think China is more aptly described as a vent for surplus economy than a mercantilist one.

[Tim Condon @CondonTim]

@briangobosox You can lead a horse to water…

[Tim Condon @CondonTim]

@EtraAlex @Brad_Setser @BaldingsWorld Exchange market intervention or local government subsidies will protect exporters’ RMB cashflows.

[Tim Condon @CondonTim]

@Brad_Setser Beijing is creating a vent-for-surplus economy in which most production is sold domestically and exports are countercyclical employment policy.