Alex Etra

Senior Macro Strategist, Exante Data. Ex-Fed. Views my own.
@exantedata

[Alex Etra @EtraAlex]

Trump officials planned to mark 2.7 million living people as dead, whistleblower says

https://t.co/hlzqcdrEUy

[Peter Harrell @petereharrell]

USTR just released its Section 301 investigation on forced labor, and proposes a 10% tariff on 16 jurisdictions (including the EU) and 12.5% on other investigated countries. An extensive list of products is proposed to be exempt. Feels IEEPA-tariff like.

Analysis tomorrow.

[Brad Setser @Brad_Setser]

Awesome new Fed data set with consistent estimates of US financial flows (valuation adjusted) based on measured holdings ...

Shows that equity flows are modest v valuation changes for example

1/

[Alex Etra @EtraAlex]

@BamaBonds @macropotamus @grok how should I adjust my asset allocation accordingly?

[Alex Etra @EtraAlex]

@Geo_papic @TheStalwart How many mb/d need to transit the strait at this point to balance global supply and demand? How much do you think *has* transited the strait on average over the last week? If not normal, what is 'sufficient' in your view?

[ʎllǝuuop ʇuǝɹq @donnelly_brent]

In light of Google's flip from buying back stock to issuing stock. Here's a chart I made. Lower decile is lower share issuance. Higher decile = more shares issued.

This is known as the "net share issuance" anomaly and it's been tested and proven, in and out of sample, for more than 50 years. The main papers on this were written in 2006/2008 and this chart uses data only 2015 to now (i.e., well out of sample).

[Eamon Javers @EamonJavers]

I spoke to President Trump on the phone last hour about the end of negotiations with the Iranians. He told me: “I don’t care if they’re over, honestly. I really don’t care. I couldn’t care less. If they’re over, they’re over. If they’re not, you know, I think they took too much time. Frankly, I thought they started to get very boring.”

https://t.co/Erp6SKZ2Tx

[Alex Etra @EtraAlex]

@GregPriddy1 Yes, this is why the distribution of outcomes is bimodal and time constrained...

[High Yield Harry @HighyieldHarry]

Realizing you’re going to have to reevaluate your entire relationship with passive investing now that SpaceX is getting pumped almost immediately into the ETFs you own

[Rosemary Kelanic @RKelanic]

The U.S. military has guided 70 ships through Hormuz over the last 3 weeks, most with their transponders off.

Still well below the prewar average of 100 daily transits.

But more than I would have expected.

https://t.co/aboYuXVR0V

[Alex Etra @EtraAlex]

@tylermacro10 Are you an oil bull now? Thought you were sanguine? Or maybe just not on board with +150 doom? Or maybe I just misread your views?

[Alex Etra @EtraAlex]

@doodlestein @leevalueroach Yes, the returns will be higher, but on a risk adjusted basis? You have to already HAVE money to take that kind of CONCENTRATED (as a retail investor, not for a VHNI--hence already having money) risk. But then, this is basically the mechanics of an open-ended private credit fund?

[Alex Etra @EtraAlex]

@Noahpinion @mattyglesias If the definition of 'moderately high levels of violent crime' is in fact 'moderately high levels of violent crime' ON SAID PUBLIC TRANSIT SYSTEM than the answer is of course (almost self-evidently) 'yes' but also literally?

[Alex Etra @EtraAlex]

@Alea_ @Rory_Johnston Is that supposed to make me feel more or less concerned?

[Rory Johnston @Rory_Johnston]

Japanese crude oil inventory chart is one of the wildest through the Hormuz crisis thus far.

[Dan Lamothe @DanLamothe]

NEW: The Pentagon is moving to recruit hundreds of troops to appear as spectators at President Donald Trump’s UFC cage-fighting event at the White House, and requiring those who attend to pay their own way and meet height and weight requirements.

[Alex Etra @EtraAlex]

@PeterDonner1962 IEA "Oil exports bypassing the Strait from Saudi Arabia, the UAE, Iraq and Iran were up by a combined 1.3 mb/d to 7.8 mb/d."

"KSA crude output declined to 7 mb/d in April. Total exports avg 4.2 mb/d, vs 7.3 mb/d in Feb, as Yanbu were +3.4 mb/d from Feb"

[Alex Etra @EtraAlex]

Just checking in guys. @WarrenPies @Rory_Johnston @CRUDEOIL231. Doesn't seem like these numbers changed much in Apr & May? Eyeballing this this post looks like May was ~-10mn for gulf or -8.5mn with other offsets? Latest EIA STEO has shut-ins at... https://t.co/q6UOeQL7sy

[Alex Etra @EtraAlex]

@WarrenPies @Rory_Johnston @JavierBlas Thanks both Warren and Rory for helping to clarify. NGL, seems like a pretty massive difference btw 8-12...wild that the *error term* in our supply loss estimate is basically as large as initial loss of Russian supply after urkaine... 🤯

[Alex Etra @EtraAlex]

@PeterDonner1962 I think the issue is I have not seen much evidence that the bypass routes have changed much (they are capacity constrained) from what I gather. Everything I see suggests +5-7mb/d can bypass (delta vs pre-war bypass baseline)

[Alex Etra @EtraAlex]

Bottom line: Notwithstanding a few tanker transits via Hormuz in recent days, April & May will be -8 to -12mb/d in supply?

[Alex Etra @EtraAlex]

IEA says global supply down about 12.8mb/day on average since war; OPEC+ down 11.9mb/d in April; gulf countries down 10.5mb/d in Apr; Oil exports down 14mb/d; Strait flows of about 2.7 mb/d in April; KSA crude exports avg 4.2 mb/d, vs 7.3 mb/d in Feb; Yanbu up 3.4 mb/d vs Feb;