Chris | ConfluenceEdge

Swing Trader. Macro, Supply & Demand, Seasonality. Forex, Indices.

[Chris | ConfluenceEdge @confluence2edge]

US data this morning reinforced a resilient growth backdrop. Final Q1 GDP was revised up to 2.1% annualized, initial claims printed low at 215k. On inflation, May PCE re-accelerated — headline to 4.1% YoY, core to 3.4%.

Growth and labor strength keep the USD bid, but the inflation pickup leaves no room for dovish repricing — after June's dot plot, a cut isn't the debate anymore.

The macro structure was already positioned for this. Today's prints confirm rather than alter it.

[Chris | ConfluenceEdge @confluence2edge]

@Nostre_damus Oil premium from geopolitics layers on today’s mixed prints. Labor demand firm, consumers cautious. Still sits inside the constructive DXY structure instead of breaking it.

[Chris | ConfluenceEdge @confluence2edge]

@paxtrader777 Ego quote hits hard. But ego usually fills the gap when edge is missing. Boredom then turns it into forced trades. That’s the real account killer.

[Chris | ConfluenceEdge @confluence2edge]

Yes, I really mean that. Psychology is always being talked about a lot, but no matter how mentally strong you are, without an edge it does absolutely nothing for you. A strong edge, on the other hand, gives you confidence, and psychology then automatically falls into place sooner or later.

[Chris | ConfluenceEdge @confluence2edge]

@Ali_Khan_ICT All of this is just unproven hypotheses. I bet none of it has ever been properly tested, because nobody checks it anyway.

[Chris | ConfluenceEdge @confluence2edge]

@Crtquinn BS

[Chris | ConfluenceEdge @confluence2edge]

@rugal_fx There are two types. The first one has to be broke or under pressure to finally make it, while with the other one it’s exactly the opposite. This type needs security or a financial cushion to be able to trade relaxed.

[Chris | ConfluenceEdge @confluence2edge]

@CRTwithSaint There are people who have perfected this skill outside of trading.

[Chris | ConfluenceEdge @confluence2edge]

Do you plan your trades the night before or just open the charts in the morning and decide then?

[Chris | ConfluenceEdge @confluence2edge]

@EliteOptions2 Do you really sometimes have zero setup for 5 days?

[Chris | ConfluenceEdge @confluence2edge]

@PBInvesting One solid trade then lake time beats sitting in front of screens all day forcing setups. The real skill is knowing when there's nothing worth taking. Boredom destroys more accounts than bad entries.

[Chris | ConfluenceEdge @confluence2edge]

@tradewithgold_ Gold positioning still heavily favors dollar longs. Breakeven now risks missing the unwind if Warsh or jobs data surprises hawkish. Trail if it holds structure instead.

[Chris | ConfluenceEdge @confluence2edge]

@VClouette Fact is, most of them lose their account balance relatively quickly, let alone ever receiving a payout at all. I advise every student to take out a fat stack of cash right away if they can — there’s nothing wrong with that.

[Chris | ConfluenceEdge @confluence2edge]

@KINGKLC001 50% hit rate with a 1:3 RR is a bit over the top. Nobody maintains these stats long-term.

[Chris | ConfluenceEdge @confluence2edge]

@AbassFx_ Haha :) it was just a joke anyway.

[Chris | ConfluenceEdge @confluence2edge]

@NazGFF @confluence2edge

[Chris | ConfluenceEdge @confluence2edge]

@tradericch Yes, that especially applies to unprofitable traders.

[Chris | ConfluenceEdge @confluence2edge]

US Consumer Confidence missed expectations today while JOLTS Job Openings beat the forecast. Labor demand stays firm, but households are turning more cautious.

The macro structure on the DXY dashboard was already constructive before these prints. This mixed outcome fits inside that framework instead of changing it.

[Chris | ConfluenceEdge @confluence2edge]

@freedomcapita Congratulations, but many traders also get into debt, lose massive amounts of money and time, and ultimately quit without success.