What do you guys make of this? There seems to be a disconnect.
When $SMH was bottoming on July 29:
> SMH: ~$504
> 10Y yield: 4.67%
> WTI: ~$85
> September hike odds: 58.4%
Now:
> $SMH: ~$562
> 10Y yield: ~4.95%
> WTI: ~$102
> September hike odds: 64%
SMH is roughly 11% higher despite higher oil, yields and hike odds.
Are stronger earnings expectations enough to explain the resilience? Could institutions be staying long and hedging elsewhere, or are equities underpricing the macro risk?
With CPI tomorrow and FOMC next week, could we see another setup like July?
You have a duty to God to become more competent, disciplined, and influential than you ever imagined yourself capable. You must become a weapon against evil.
High aura :
Silence
Trusting God for everything
Lifting to failure
Embracing suffering
Never stressing
Reading The Bible
Sunlight
Whole foods
Black coffee
Eating for fuel, not for taste
Kindness
Patience
Humility
Generosity
Putting yourself last
Not being an employee
Unaffected by opinions of others
Not needing approval
Strong convictions / beliefs
Low cortisol
Knowing “it’s going to work out”
Unaffected by external situations
Innate confidence
Unwavering willpower
Building and creating instead of consuming
Saying whatever you want whenever you want
Not playing politics
Yet still being well received everywhere you go
Being filled with The Holy Spirit (and succeeding in everything you put your hand to - by God’s grace)
Calm breathing
Quiet and meek over being loud and outspoken
Knowing how to fight but hating violence
Loving over hating
Being stronger than others but refusing to care
Using talents exclusively for good and to glorify and exalt God Almighty
AI is inflationary today and deflationary tomorrow. The Fed can measure the first half. It has no reliable way to see the second.
Warsh has had the job for two months. He has already stopped giving forward guidance and created five task forces to rebuild how the Fed measures inflation, productivity, and its own data. In June he was the only participant who declined to submit a rate projection.
Markets took that as the Fed going dark.
Half the committee members who did submit projections want a hike before year end. September is the first meeting that puts fresh numbers on the table.
If you are going into this afternoon unsure what to watch, read this first. The old playbook for reading the Fed does not apply to this one.
We read every Warsh and Cook speech from this month and broke down what each task force changes for rates. A must read for retail investors navigating this macro environment, and free.
https://t.co/Beh5ZDgkqQ
Microsoft and Meta report after the close.
Wow. When I first launched The Assembly, I did not expect feedback like this.
3,600+ members and counting. We are just getting started.
Get access: https://t.co/ndsxdxmaHv
Never filled my brain w/ a bunch of info
Just stuck to fundamentals
Health: Break a sweat daily & eat for performance
Game: Girls just want to have fun.
Business: Cook appetizing meals & put in front of hungry customers.
Spirituality: Live the truth.
Life: Don't be a bitch.