🚨 BERHALTER FIRED 🚨
Gregg Berhalter out as USMNT coach after getting grouped at Copa America, per @ByDougMcIntyre. For GGG, a lack of process & inability to beat big teams led to unprecedented loss of fan support. Search for next coach begins with WC2026 just 701 days away.
Summer Window Update 4# by the SwedishRumble
#EuropaLeague is secured -- how much does this impact ability to spend under the FFP rules in the summer of 2024?
🔺What is the financial status of MUFC?
Below is the underlining numbers for a review of how much MUFC can spend under the FFP rules.
For 22/23 (column 2023), the numbers are straight from the Annual Report, for 23/24, we got 2 of 4 quarters published and for 24/25 it is of course a pure forecast. One comment: The Ineos deal was approved in January/February. Any lawyer fees, bonuses etc will be paid in Q3, which has not yet been published. MUFC aims to alert 10 days in advance before Q results are published, so it is still some ways off. Some fees have been announced and are included, but this could have an impact.
So how do we forecast the period from 1 January, 2024 to 30 June, 2025? It is not as difficult as it seems. Everything is the same from year to year, except what changes. What changes year to year? In no order, (1) money from European cups depending which tournament you qualify for, (2) income from PL finish (ours went from 165m in 22/23 to 151m in 23/24, it is not insignificant) (3) match-day income, depending on how many games you play and ticket prices, (4) big sponsorship deals could have an impact, (5) the player wages, if someone is signed, their wage must be added, if a contract is up or someone is sold, their wage is removed, (6) the amortization of the transfer fees paid for players, same as with wages.
There are three FFP rules we must comply with, the PL's Profitability and Sustainability Rule, the UEFA Football Earnings Rule and the UEFA's Squad Cost Rule. For all these rules, it is necessary to determine what our revenue will be for 24/25. The below numbers are exclusive of our cost for new signings for 24/25 -- because the way to determine how much we can spend in the summer of 2024, is to determine how much head room we have in relation to each room -- with the difference between our spending if no signings are made and the maximum amount we can spend under each rule, showing how much we can spend in the summer of 2024.
So what does the numbers say? Why does the 24/25 ("2025") numbers differ from 23/24 ("2024")? These are the main differences.
⚽️Sponsorship income is estimated to increase 5% due to general inflation. Some sponsor deals will be tied to inflation, and new sponsor deals replacing old deals will garner a higher price.
⚽️I assume we will finish top 5, which increase TV money from the PL.
⚽️We will play in the Europa League, for which I assume 40m in TV income. We got 37m in 22/23, but this season there are more games. Could be up to 65m if we win it. We got 60m from the CL this season with a lousy finish.
⚽️I am counting that our match-day income this season will be comparable to 22/23 (when we had a record amount of home games, two finals and won all draws for home advantage) -- due to more matches but also higher ticket prices.
⚽️I am counting on wages to be down 102m due to (a) reduction of 17% due to playing in EL instead of CL and (b) Varane (17.6m), B Williams (2.88m), Martial (13m), Regulion (4.5m) and Amrabat (8.5m) being off the books (total of 48m).
⚽️Amortization to be down 25m, due to the amortization of the transfer fee of the following players being off the books: Varane (14m), AWB (9m), Garnacho (0.105m) and Pellestri (1.8m).
🔺The PL's PSR
To establish our Profit and Sustainability Result ("PSR"), the following calculation is made:
It is not complex. The numbers above goes in under "Revenue customers" and "Operating expense". Then "Profit disposal intangible assets" (player sales) is added to Revenue Customers, to give us the "(A)" "Relevant Income". To Operating expense, Finance costs and Depreciation (write down of investments on Carrington and OT) are added to get "(B)" "Relevant Expenses". Lastly, some costs are deemed to be "healthy", and shall not be included. They are investments in stadium etc, the academy and womens team, which are estimated and added up to get "(C)" "Relevant Investments". Then A minus B plus C gives us "Adjusted Earnings Before Tax", for each season. Our PSR Calculation is each Adjusted Earnings before tax for the last three seasons. What we spend in the summer of 2024 will impact our earnings in 24/25 and our review for the period including the seasons 24/25, 23/24 and 22/23.
We had a positive Adjusted Earnings for 22/23 with 19.8m, I estimate a negative Adjusted Earnings for 23/24 to be minus 49m and I estimate a positive Adjusted Earnings for 24/25 -- before signings this summer -- to be plus 47.7m. This gives us a PSR calculation that is plus 18.5m.
Our PSR calculation can be minus 105m. This means that our result in 24/25 can be 123.5m worse for us to still pass the PL's FFP rule. How can it become 123.5m worse? By us signing players that in total increases our costs for 24/25 with 123.5m.
If we sign a player for 100m to a 5 year 200k a week contract, it increases our costs for 24/25 with (a) the total wage of the player and (b) the amortization of the player's transfer fee. (a) is of course 200k * 52 weeks = 10.4m. (b) The yearly amortization charge is the transfer fee divided by the length of the contract, i.e. 100m / 5y = 20m per year. So in total, if we sign one 100m player to a 200k a week contract, it increases our costs for 24/25 with 30.4m. Since we can increase our costs with 123m, it is simple math that we could spend about 400m on transfer fees and still pass the PL's FFP rule next summer.
🔺UEFA's FER
Under UEFA's Football Earnings Rule, which is calculated in an identical way as the PL's PSR -- we can make what UEFA refers to having an Aggregated Football Earnings of a loss not exceeding €60m as a start, which can be increased to €90m depending on the size of the club's debt (my estimate is that we have to stick to the 60m threshold).
This simply means that we instead of making a 18.5 + 105 = 123m loss, "only" can make a 18.5 + 60 = 78.5m loss under the 3 year period under UEFA's FER.
Again, using the rule of thumb established above which is that for every 30.4m increase our costs with, we can spend 100m on tranfer fees -- this means that we could spend 78.5 / 30.4 = 2.6 times 100m, i.e. we could 260m on transfer fees under UEFA's FER.
🔺UEFA's SCR
UEFA's Squad Cost Rule ("SCR") is a bit different, and is calculated in accordance with the below.
Simplified, the cost of our squad ("A") is divided with our revenue ("B") to give us our Squad Cost Ratio ("C). All these numbers are calendar year, and not seasonal.
Since this rule is new, our Squad Cost Ratio can be 80% -- during the calendar year 2024 can be 80%, before it must be 70% from 2025 and forward.
Before any spending in the summer of 2024, our Squad Cost Ratio would be 68%. This means that we could increase our Squad Cost with app. 78.6m.
Again, using the above rule of thumb, 78.6/30.4 = 2,6, we could spend 260m on transfer fees under UEFA's Squad Cost rule.
🔺So we can spend 260m on transfer fees under "FFP", but what happens if we sell players?
Our ability to spend under the FFP rules increases greatly if we sell players.
Just as an example, Jadon Sancho (a) is still on our balance sheet with 29.2m (3/5s of his 72.9m transfer fee has been amortized), (b) he has a yearly amortization charge of 72.9 / 5 = 14,6m, and (c) he has a yearly wage of 18.2m. If we sell Sancho for 20m, we make a loss of 20-29.2= -9.2m on trading with players, we wont be hit by his amortization charge of 14.6m for 24/25 and we won't have to pay his wages of 18.2m in 24/25. Hence, if we sell Sancho for 20m, it impacts our result with -9.2m + 14.6m + 18.2m = 23.6m in 24/25.
Hence, using the above rule of thumb, we could spend another 23.6 / 30.4 = 7.8, i.e. 78m if we sell Sancho for 20m.
Greenwood as an academy player has no book value and hence of course no amortization charge, so if we sell him for 20m, we improve our result in 24/25 with 20m + 3.9m (wages) = 23.9m. This is another 80m in spending.
Hence, it is simple math that just by selling Greenwood and Sancho each, we could spend another 78+80=158m in addition to the 260m we can spend under the FFP rules, i.e. in total over 400m. If we in addition sell more players, like Lindelof/Maguire, perhaps AWB and so forth -- we more or less can spend an unlimited amount under FFP.
The below summarize how much it improves our result, we we sell any of the listed players for 20m (just an example, if we get 30m instead, you just add 10m to the figure in the last column), except Donny, who I estimate that we have to give away.
🔺So does this mean that we easily can spend 400m this summer?
No, this is how much we can spend without breaching FFP.
We don't have 400m on the bank account, in fact we are around 800m in debt.
Under our budget, we should be able to spend app. 75m in cash during the summer transfer window of 2024. We on avg pay 67.9 of the transfer fees in instalements (32.1% in cash). This means that our cash should suffice for agreeing to transfer fees of app. 75m / 32.1% = 234m.
In addition, we have a revolving credit facility of 300m. So in theory -- we can well over 400m this summer AND next summer. BUT, it is not sustainable -- without support from our owners -- because we keep increasing our transfer debt and financial debt.
If Ineos is prepared to back us with more than the 200m+100m -- we can spend these amounts. Remember, Chelsea has much less revenues than us and have spend well over 1bn the last 2 seasons.
🔺Wait, this just can't be right -- everyone have said that we can't spend under FFP???
No, it is definitely right. But -- we are in a completely different situation up until 30 June 2024. Why? In 21/22 we made a loss of £149.5m, which is the 3rd biggest loss of all times in the PL, and City and Chelsea has stacked up some huge losses over the years, so that says a lot.
Remember how under the PL rules, the result from 3 seasons are added together. For the period of the 23/24, 22/23 and 21/22 season we could make a 105m loss -- and before the 22/23 season even started, we were already in red with 149.5m in losses.
But after this season, the horrible 21/22 season is off the books.
In addition, from the end of the 21/22 season up until 1 July 2024, the following contracts will have been removed from the books: Pogba, Ronaldo, DDG, Cavani, Mata, Lingard, Matic, Bailly, Fred, Telles, Williams, Varane and Martial. If Sancho and Greenwood are sold, they are added to that list which would be 15 names strong. All on fairly substansial wages, and Ronaldo, DDG, Pogba, Varane and Sancho all being on very very high wages.
During this time, we have just added 8 players in Casemiro, Antony, Martinez, Malacia, Eriksen, Mount, Rasmus and Onana, of which only Casemiro is on really high wages. 15 out, 8 in, and of the contracts going out, many were much more expensive than the ones we have added. Anyone that can count on their two hands can figure out that we -- massively -- have reduced our wage bill already. This of course enables spending now.
I will post threads like this on various topics related to the Summer Window all summer -- so please RT, smash a like and turn on notifications to not miss something! Just search for "Summer Window Update", and previous entries can be found!
I’d buy the Apple Vision Pro solely to play Football Manager on. Nothing else. Just me standing up in my living room, fully suited up, celebrating goals like a prime Jose Mourinho. Worth $4000? Absolutely.
🇧🇷👨👩👦👦 Endrick's letter to his younger brother...
"In our family, we weren’t born into wealth. We were born into football."
"I don’t know when you will be reading this letter, but right now you are 4 years old, and our lives are changing very fast."
"In the next few months, I am going to Spain to play for Real Madrid — yes, the team that I always pick on PlayStation when you watch me."
"For three generations, and maybe more, our family has chased the dream of football. We have been trying to change our circumstances."
"But now, you can do whatever you want... there is no stress anymore. Thanks to god, mum, dad and football."
"You just enjoy your life how you want brother. That is my gift to you."
"Mother eating the old cornbread. Father sleeping under the ticket booth. Mom crying in the bathroom. Father crying on the couch."
"The life we are living now didn’t come out of nowhere." (@PlayersTribune)