When you see a thread on a stock, Thomas Phelps said
"Even if one’s info is complete & accurate, it can still misleading investment wise if it is late. A lemon that has been flattened by a steam roller has more juice in it that a piece of info the market has already discounted"
Retail investors are brainwashed into thinking that a 30-50% returns is achievable and all they need is hard work
Most are too active on twitter and rely on false narratives and sloppy analysis
What they don't know is they can beat 90% of the gurus by buying 50-50 equity - debt
@abhishec_s If your customer is not deriving enough value from paying up for ur product, it will stop buying someday. Shortage/excess demand stops, vols/margin drop
Most portfolios don't have a nimbu mirchi.
Real protection is more than relying on lucky charms.
Multi Asset Allocation Funds spreads your money across equity, debt, gold, silver, and more.
Some call it superstition. We call it diversification.
This is true for all defence linked cos. Promoter holding keeps coming down either selling or dilution, no cash flows only fund raise and debt fuelling growth. All to see material derating over next 1-2-3y. Whoever sells in time, saves nine
Conviction Broken. Too many things have started bothering me & I am no longer comfortable with the management's stance.
In the last few days, I have sold my AXISCADES position. I first bought the stock around Feb/Mar 2025 near ₹850 & kept averaging up as my confidence in the business grew. My avg buying price eventually reached around ₹960.
AXISCADES later touched almost ₹2,200 & even at today's price of ~ ₹1,530 I am booking a return of over 55% in less than 1.5 yrs. Could I have sold much higher? Absolutely, but at that time the business was delivering, execution looked strong & my conviction (at that time) was very much intact.
In the last few months, a series of developments has changed my view. I am sharing my key concerns here:
❌ The promoter recently sold shares worth around ₹167 crore. More importantly, promoter holding has fallen from 66% to 58% over the last 3 years.
❌ The latest quarter was a big disappointment. PAT fell nearly 98%, from over ₹27 crore to just ₹0.4 crore. Management says it's only a timing issue. I hope they are right.
❌ Cash generation has weakened. Operating cash flow turned negative, while free cash flow slipped to around -₹135 crore in FY26.
❌ Money is getting stuck for longer. Debtor days increased from 107 to 130, something I don't like seeing.
❌ Debt has also moved up during the year, increasing from about ₹258 crore to ₹388 crore.
❌ Even after all this, the stock is trading at around 83x earnings and nearly 9x book value. That's still an expensive valuation in my view.
❌ For this kind of valuation, I would expect much stronger returns on capital. ROCE is around 15% & ROE about 11.5%, which doesn't excite me.
❌ None of these points alone would have made me sell. But together, they have reduced my confidence in both the management's stance and the overall risk-reward.