Contrary Research

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[Contrary Research @Contrary_Res]

We’re excited to introduce Contrary Research!

Our vision is to be the best destination for finding high-quality research and in-depth analysis of private companies.

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[Kyle Harrison @kwharrison13]

There is no such thing as dying of old age.

Age is a measure of how much the average "human system" can take. But all the things that cause our bodies to break down are solvable. It's just a matter of time.

And immortality may have just entered clinical trials.

[Contrary Research @Contrary_Res]

https://t.co/BTujJ74bVM

[Contrary Research @Contrary_Res]

https://t.co/3xZklKW6Xs

[Contrary Research @Contrary_Res]

https://t.co/ayzmEt1wE3

[Contrary Research @Contrary_Res]

https://t.co/2meeDHd636

[Kyle Harrison @kwharrison13]

Sierra is an insane business because, despite countless companies trying to automate customer service, it remains an endlessly painful process.

Going up against all of that baggage they're still managing to actually solve problems for some of the most customer-centric brands.

[Contrary Research @Contrary_Res]

Read the full report here: https://t.co/WgFM06OF5o

[Contrary Research @Contrary_Res]

[NEW REPORT]: We've released an updated report outlining Sierra's business and how the company:

• Reached $100M+ ARR in just under three years
• Is powering hundreds of millions of interactions
• Are building for a future with ChatGPT as a dominant consumer channel

Plus...

• How Sierra competes against incumbent giants like Salesforce's Agentforce, Genesys, and NICE; and why their distribution advantages may matter less than expected
• The AI-native rivalry with Decagon, Ada, and PolyAI, and where each company is making different bets on orchestration, voice, and pricing
• Why outcome-based pricing is more than a gimmick and how it structurally locks in expansion revenue in ways seat-based incumbents can't match
• The "build once, run everywhere" architecture that lets a single agent operate consistently across phone, chat, SMS, email, and even ChatGPT
• Inside the product stack: Agent SDK, Agent Studio, Ghostwriter, Insights 2.0, the Agent Data Platform, and Live Assist; and how they fit together as an operating system rather than a chatbot
• The shift from cost center to revenue protection: How Sierra is moving beyond ticket deflection into churn saves, win-backs, and identity-gated upgrades where the value per resolution rises sharply
• Market sizing across three converging pools: Conversational AI, contact-center software, and the $120B+ in U.S. customer service wages alone
• The Bret Taylor founding story including the lunch with Clay Bavor where they decided to start a company with no product idea, only a conviction
• Key risks that could derail the thesis, including how a single high-profile agent failure could reshape enterprise willingness to automate sensitive workflows
• The international expansion playbook: SoftBank investment, the Opera Tech acquisition in Tokyo, and offices opening across Asia and Europe in under six months
• What Sierra's valuation actually assumes about labor automation economics, and how it compares to compressing CCaaS multiples at Five9 and NICE

[Bret Taylor @btaylor]

Sierra is raising $950 million from new and existing investors, led by Tiger Global and GV, at a valuation of over $15 billion. We now have more than $1 billion to invest in becoming the global standard for companies wanting to transform their customer experiences with AI. 

We’ve never had such conviction in the opportunity for Sierra and our customers. Just a couple of years ago, we had four design partners. Now, Sierra is serving over 40% of the Fortune 50, and agents built on our platform are powering billions of customer interactions — everything from refinancing homes to processing insurance claims, returning orders, and helping people raise millions in fundraisers.

We’re deeply grateful to our customers for helping show what’s possible. If you’re not yet using Sierra, we’d love to partner with you. https://t.co/tT4tBSeSoR

[Molly O’Shea @MollySOShea]

BREAKING: Inside The Anduril Thesis

Full Interview on the 300 Page Book Covering 100 Years of Military History That Explain Everything About Anduril

We Cover:
- How the US built 40% of global manufacturing post-WWII
- Cold War era when DoD funded 36% of global R&D
- Founder + military maverick pattern (Schriver/Eisenhower, Rickover, Kelly Johnson)
- Skunk Works, Bell Labs, & the golden age of defense
- Anduril's counter-positioned playbook
- Fixed-cost contracts & self-funded R&D
- Why industrial capacity is the next great unlock
- The mission behind the Flame of the West

by Kyle Harrison (@kwharrison13), Sachin Maini (@sachinmaini) of @contrary & @contrary_res

Timestamps
(00:00) Kyle Harrison, GP at Contrary & Co-Author of The Anduril Thesis
(01:22) The Anduril Thesis: A 300 Page Deep Dive
(04:52) How America lost its military edge
(07:33) The book that predicted the mess
(10:36) How bureaucracy broke the US military
(15:39) The ridiculous economics of modern war
(19:25) How Ukraine changed everything
(23:34) The Anduril thesis explained
(30:18) The pitch that changed defense forever
(36:52) Breaking down Anduril's tech stack
(45:26) The $10 trillion undersea threat
(57:43) Why founders need military mavericks
(01:03:53) Inside the new Department of War
(01:10:42) Anduril's unfair talent advantage
(01:21:20) When defense tech was toxic
(01:27:57) Why we must prepare for war
(01:39:27) The venture capital trap

[Kyle Harrison @kwharrison13]

Today, we’re launching The Anduril Thesis, a 300-page book 2 years in the making.

Of 500+ companies we’ve covered, Anduril could be the most important of all.

Because if it mission is successful, it could single-handedly deter a catastrophic global conflict.

Here's the story:

[Contrary Research @Contrary_Res]

Today, Contrary Research is announcing The Anduril Thesis: a 300-page book covering the history of the defense industry, global conflict, and how Anduril is building a modern defense prime.

You can read more and order the full book here: https://t.co/x3V2W0Vm0A

[Contrary Research @Contrary_Res]

Maybe everyone would just pay more for AI: when asked "how much compensation they would accept to give up access to all generative AI tools for one month," the average response was $125 (with a median of only $11).

[Contrary Research @Contrary_Res]

https://t.co/ekOBYkbJdg

[Contrary Research @Contrary_Res]

Anyone's game: the ATOM Open Language Model Ecosystem Report documents a continually evolving open-model inference market, with Chinese labs leading in token usage.

[Contrary Research @Contrary_Res]

US trust in government regulation os AI is the lowest of surveyed countries, according to Stanford HAI's Annual AI Index report.

[Contrary Research @Contrary_Res]

https://t.co/Oo5GaABmVK

[Contrary Research @Contrary_Res]

Princeton study finds conversational AI discussion nearly triples the selection rate of promoted products vs web search placement.

[Contrary Research @Contrary_Res]

When surveyed on specific jobs, however, AI experts predict greater impacts than the general public.

[Contrary Research @Contrary_Res]

Stanford HAI's Annual AI Index report puts numbers to the growing sentiment gap between the general public and AI experts on the societal impact of AI.

[Contrary Research @Contrary_Res]

Opinions diverge widely on how, and whether, AI will impact the US jobs market.