ConvexEdge

Swing Trader. Market Cycles. I don't give financial advice. All I share on X is educational content.

[ConvexEdge @ConvexEdgeX]

@TXMCtrades Spot on.

[ConvexEdge @ConvexEdgeX]

@Rumpletmkp Agree. I think we will get a lower high out of the next DCL.

[ConvexEdge @ConvexEdgeX]

The waltz is over.

[ConvexEdge @ConvexEdgeX]

Let's go dance the last waltz.

[ConvexEdge @ConvexEdgeX]

Enough to keep everything free.

A yearly number tells you nothing about how it was made. Reckless size can put you up 80% right before it wipes you out. What matters is the process, and whether it survives a full cycle. Judge the timestamped record, not a figure I could just type.

[ConvexEdge @ConvexEdgeX]

Either you have a system or you get eaten alive by the market.

[Wall Street Memes @wallstmemes]

You were up 280% on semiconductor stocks and you didn't sell because people on X gave you fomo

[ConvexEdge @ConvexEdgeX]

@blackwater1717 No profit taking as long as the trend doesn't change.

[ConvexEdge @ConvexEdgeX]

Update: $SOXX

Shorts are safe and in good shape.

[ConvexEdge @ConvexEdgeX]

Entered a short on $SOXX

Invalidation under the last DCL on 1/SOXX

[ConvexEdge @ConvexEdgeX]

@MarketsCJR I won't add to this one. But if I did, I would wait for a confirmed DCL on 1/SOXX

[ConvexEdge @ConvexEdgeX]

Update: $HELP

Long & Strong.

[ConvexEdge @ConvexEdgeX]

$HELP - strong weekly close confirmed the break above the 4-year trendline and cemented the weekly cycle low

[ConvexEdge @ConvexEdgeX]

@VLADISLAVG94 Default.

[ConvexEdge @ConvexEdgeX]

Update: $NDX HTF.

Everything going according to plan.

[ConvexEdge @ConvexEdgeX]

Update: $NDX HTF

[ConvexEdge @ConvexEdgeX]

@Sijustan Yes, that's why I'll wait for a closure below the TL before acting. Another confluence for me is that the TL has been touched three times already. The fourth or fifth likely fails to hold. Always probabilities, not certainties.

[ConvexEdge @ConvexEdgeX]

Update: $COPPER

We are almost there.

[ConvexEdge @ConvexEdgeX]

$COPPER looks topped, and DSS Bressert is overdue a reset on the monthly.

We need a little more data to confirm. Watching closely.

[ConvexEdge @ConvexEdgeX]

@MarketsCJR Longs are risky in this late cycle environment. Trade below the last DCL and I'm out. And I won't re-enter until the 4YCL.

[ConvexEdge @ConvexEdgeX]

$RSP (equal weight SPX) confirmed a new DCL. I’m long.

[ConvexEdge @ConvexEdgeX]

Update: $KHC

Up and to the right.

[ConvexEdge @ConvexEdgeX]

$KHC

All confirmations are in: swing low in the timing window, trendline break, @camelfinance indicator picking a low.

It's time.

[ConvexEdge @ConvexEdgeX]

@TheTigerPride 🎯

[ConvexEdge @ConvexEdgeX]

$USOIL - the supporting trendline broke down, faster than I expected. That closed the runner from the long, and I've flipped short on the same break. We take what the market gives.

Invalidation on the short: daily close back above the HTF descending trendline.

[ConvexEdge @ConvexEdgeX]

$USOIL moving as expected. Two lines in play, pointing the same way from opposite ends.

The macro descending trendline: we got the fakeout. Price poked above, couldn’t hold, and closed hard down today - that aggressive close is what confirms it as a trap instad of a breakout.

The near-term ascending trendline off the last leg up is still intact, no close below it yet. That’s the trigger for the short, and I want a similar kind of aggressive close when it goes, not a wick nipping through.

Invalidation: price reclaiming the macro descending line and closing back above. That undoes the fakeout and the read with it.

[ConvexEdge @ConvexEdgeX]

@TheTigerPride I got stopped out on Sol too. Oil is a swing trade, so yes, SL is wide and I size accordingly (always 1% risk max). I don’t care about small position sizes as I always have several swing trades (longs and shorts) running on different assets. Slow is smooth and smooth is fast.

[ConvexEdge @ConvexEdgeX]

@scrat_attack That’s the whole point of using liquidity analysis as a confluence tool: when key levels like OBs are present, we can use tighter stop-losses.
.

[ConvexEdge @ConvexEdgeX]

@scrat_attack Above OB in this case.