Conviction2soul

Trend Follower, An Enthusiastic Learner, Trading With Risk Management,Stock Market Related Tweets Are Just For Educational Purpose Only,Not Registered with SEBI

[Yukti Agrawal (@Stockstix) @stockstix]

USDINR BREAKDOWN 📉
INR Strengthening ⁉️

💡 THE BILLION-DOLLAR QUESTION:

Can FIIs potentially make money from BOTH Indian equities AND INR appreciation?

One overlooked angle:
Don’t just look at NIFTY in INR. Look at it in USD terms.

For FIIs:

Returns = Equity performance + Currency movement

Interestingly, NIFTY in USD terms is still around October 2022 levels
So despite NIFTY being much higher in INR, it remains relatively attractive for USD-based investors.

📌 WHY IS INR STRENGTHENING?

→ FCNR(B): RBI’s special forex-swap facility attracted $100B+ before the Aug 31 deadline, creating significant FX liquidity.
→ RBI intervention: USD selling has supported INR; FX reserves are around $729B.
→ FPI/G-Sec reforms: Tax exemptions + relaxed norms have improved India’s appeal for foreign bond investors.
→ MSCI rebalancing: Added another source of foreign capital/USD selling.
→ 7.8% Q1 GDP growth: Strengthened the macro backdrop and sentiment.

💰 WHY DOES THIS MATTER?

For an FII:

🇮🇳 INR ↑ + 📈 NIFTY ↑ = 💵 Higher USD returns

Potential feedback loop:

INR strength → Better USD returns → More FII interest → More inflows → Further INR + equity support

📈 POTENTIAL INDIA BENEFITS

💵 Cheaper imports
📉 Lower inflation pressure
🏦 Stronger G-Sec appeal
📊 Potential equity liquidity tailwind
✈️ Cheaper overseas travel/education
🏢 Benefits for import-heavy & dollar-debt companies

⚠️ BUT THE CATCH

→ FCNR(B) flows + RBI intervention aren't permanent INR-demand sources.
→ FCNR(B) mobilisation window closed Aug 31.

🔎 THE REAL TEST STARTS NOW
If USD/INR keeps falling even after FCNR(B) closes, while NIFTY remains strong, the case for a broader capital-flow rotation into India gets much stronger.

That’s why 95 on USD/INR matters.

If FIIs can make money from BOTH Indian equities + INR appreciation, FII buying may not just return the pace of inflows could accelerate meaningfully.

#NIFTY #FII #USDINR #RBI #IndianMarkets #Rupee

[Yukti Agrawal (@Stockstix) @stockstix]

NIFTY IT / NIFTY 50 🔥
RATIO CHART

Something interesting is setting up 👇

• Long-term cyclical downtrend since 2021
• Ratio has formed a descending channel
• Price is now testing the ₹1.30 breakout zone
• 40 EMA (W) almost aligned with the 200 DMA, making this zone even more important
• RSI has reclaimed 50 and is approaching its breakout zone

If this breakout sustains, the next 2–3 months could see some strong moves in IT stocks. 🚀

The ratio chart is already indicating around 24% relative outperformance potential.

#NIFTYIT #HCLTECH #TCS #stockmarketindia

[Yukti Agrawal (@Stockstix) @stockstix]

🚨 HDFC BANK 🚨

When a stock is owned by everyone, breakouts rarely come easy.

HDFC Bank being one of the most widely held names in my MTF universe makes this weakness even more important to watch.

📉 Below all MAs on Daily TF
📉 At the 100 MA on Monthly TF the same zone from where it reversed after the COVID crash
📉 Long-term rising trendline broken
📊 Monthly support under pressure
🔻 Volume picked up during the breakdown
📉 RSI slipped below 40
🎯 Next important support: 640–650

But here’s the interesting part. 👇
When positioning becomes too crowded, the market often needs to shake out buyers and weak hands first.
Once the weak hands are out and positioning gets lighter…
the real move can begin. 🚀

Disclaimer: For educational purposes only. Not investment advice. Do your own research.

#HDFCBank #MTF #PriceAction #TechnicalAnalysis

[Yukti Agrawal (@Stockstix) @stockstix]

CDSL Technical Setup 📈
( Weekly )

🔹 Weekly: Breaking out of a VCP pattern
🔹 Daily: Price above the 200 DMA
🔹 Momentum: Close to a Golden Crossover
🔹 Breakout: If sustained, upside zone ₹1,508–₹1,540 🚀
🔹 Risk Management: Swing low / breakout candle low can be considered as SL

🔹 View: Purely technical no fundamental view 📊

⚠️ Disclaimer: For educational purposes only. Not a recommendation to buy or sell. Do your own research and manage risk accordingly.

#breakoutstocks #StockInFocus

[Yukti Agrawal (@Stockstix) @stockstix]

NIFTY50 🛑

India’s market is in an extremely slow + compressed phase. 📉

Why I’m saying this is NOT the time to force trades.

India VIX touched 10.7 today.

NIFTY 4H volatility is heavily compressed:
• ATRP: 0.68 vs 0.90 peak → 25% contraction
• ATR: 105 vs 330 peak → 68% contraction

Volatility that blew out on the way down has been quietly bleeding off as price moved sideways.
And here’s the practical problem 👇

In the last 30 days, my total trading charges were ₹14.74 lakh.

• Brokerage: ₹2.22L
• STT: ₹7.46L
• Exchange charges: ₹3.67L
• GST: ₹1.07L
• Other statutory charges: ₹0.07L

So when the market is giving smaller moves, while Brokerage + STT keep eating into the gains, the breakeven gets higher and the points left on the table get smaller essentially compressing my gains.

This is exactly why I’m sitting out.
No need to trade just because the market is open.
Let volatility expand. Let the market give us the points. Then we trade. 📊

#stockmarketindia #nifty50

[Yukti Agrawal (@Stockstix) @stockstix]

🚨ICICI BANK🚨
EXIT WHEN IT'S CROWDED, NOT WHEN IT'S CRASHING

Booking out of our max ICICI Bank position today. The "best bank in India" narrative is starting to wobble and this isn't ICICI-specific, pressure is building across the entire banking sector.

📊 Q1 FY27

🔻 Provisions EXPLODED to ₹1,297 cr from just ₹261 cr in Q4FY26, a 5x QoQ spike
🔻 CD ratio stretched to 87.5% (from 83.8% YoY) lending faster than deposits
🔻 CASA eroding: 38.1% vs 38.7% YoY funding cost pressure building
🔻 Consolidated ROE slipping: 16.6% vs 16.9% YoY
🔻 Valuation still rich: 2.8x P/B | 19-20x P/E

⚠️ Sector-wide headwinds I'm watching:

🔸 RBI rate cuts compressing NIM system-wide, further cuts likely (next MPC Aug 3-5)
🔸 Unsecured retail (personal loans/credit cards) stress building across the industry
🔸 CASA erosion industry-wide as savers shift to MFs, G-Secs, SFBs
🔸 Rupee weakness (₹89-96/USD) + global crude/geopolitical risk
🔸 GDP growth guidance cut to 6.6-6.9% for FY27, credit demand at risk
🔸 Possible RBI risk-weight tightening on unsecured lending ahead

📉 Technical:

🔸 Yearly RSI at 90 deeply overbought on the highest timeframe
🔸 Monthly 50 MA gets tested every 4-5 years, and we're 5 years into this cycle currently 20% away from it

This is for educational purposes only, not investment advice. DYOR and consult your financial advisor before acting.

[Yukti Agrawal (@Stockstix) @stockstix]

🇮🇳 THE INCONVENIENT TRUTH ABOUT INDIA'S STOCK MARKET 🇮🇳

Before telling someone to "just stay invested," look at what has actually happened.

Years of zero returns in some of India's biggest and most trusted companies:

🔴 ONGC — 12 Years
🔴 Indian Oil — 9.25 Years
🔴 ITC — 9 Years
🔴 TCS — 7.75 Years
🔴 HUL — 6.5 Years
🔴 HCL Tech — 5.75 Years
🔴 Asian Paints, Infosys, Wipro, Kotak Bank — 5.5 Years
🔴 HDFC Bank, Adani Energy — 5 Years
🔴 Bajaj Finserv, D-Mart, Tech Mahindra — 4.75 Years
🔴 Reliance — 4 Years
🔴 Jio Financial, Tata Motors — 2.75 Years
🔴 Maruti, NTPC, HAL, IndiGo — 2 Years
🔴 M&M, Bajaj Auto, Axis Bank — 1.5–1.75 Years

These are not penny stocks.
These are the companies every financial advisor, mutual fund manager, and TV expert tells investors to trust for the long term.

The macro picture isn't helping either:
📉 Rupee: ₹71 → ₹97.3 (ATL) in 5 years
📉 GDP Growth: 9.2% → 6.5% in just 2 years
📉 Q2 FY25 GDP: 5.4% (7-quarter low)
📉 FIIs pulled out $27.6 Billion in 2026 alone
📉 MSCI India vs Asia: Worst gap since 1998
📉 MSCI India vs Emerging Markets: Worst gap since 1993

Meanwhile, other markets moved ahead:

🇰🇷 KOSPI: +72%
🇹🇼 Taiwan TWSE 50: +60%
🇯🇵 Nikkei: +28%
🇨🇳 CSI 300: +17%
🇺🇸 S&P 500: +17%
🇮🇳 NIFTY 50: +10%

Just 18 months ago, India's stock market was worth 3.5x South Korea's market.
Today, both South Korea and Taiwan have overtaken India.
India has slipped from the world's 5th largest equity market to 7th.

And who paid the price?
The retail investor.
🔴 91% of F&O traders lose money (SEBI Data)
🔴 Retail F&O losses jumped 41% to ₹1.06 Lakh Crore
🔴 More than ₹3 Lakh Crore lost between FY22–FY25
🔴 New Demat account openings down 40%
🔴 SIP accounts witnessed a net decline for the first time ever
Yet despite all this...

💰 ₹29,500 Crore still flows into SIPs every month.
Because retail India still believes.

The father saving for his child's education.

The salaried employee investing a part of every paycheck.
The retiree trying to protect lifelong savings.
The small trader hoping to build a better future.
Markets are not just charts and candles.
They are people's dreams, sacrifices, and futures.
A humble appeal to Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman, and policymakers:

Please treat this with urgency.

Focus on investor confidence.
Focus on market depth.
Focus on long-term wealth creation.
Focus on protecting retail participation.
India's investors have shown extraordinary faith in the system.
Now it's time for the system to prove that faith was justified.
🇮🇳
#NIFTY50 #RetailInvestors #IndianEconomy #StockMarketIndia #GDP #FnO #SIP

[Yukti Agrawal (@Stockstix) @stockstix]

NIFTY 50🍀
Last NIFTY view was on April 8.

And till today, NIFTY is still stuck near the same zone.
Almost 2 months of sideways action for longs. 📉

On May 8, I clearly mentioned one negation level:
A weekly close above 24,600 and I would turn very short term bullish.

Fresh view today ✅
Now, a weekly close above 24,000 has become extremely important for bulls.

Otherwise, NIFTY still doesn’t look good. 🙂

#stockmaket #giftnifty

[Yukti Agrawal (@Stockstix) @stockstix]

🚨 INDIA’S SILENT BEAR MARKET 🚨
Millions lost money. Almost nobody talked about it.

Honestly, the real damage in this market doesn’t show up on the index.

You understand the reality only when you open your portfolio 📉

Personally, my equity portfolio is also down around 17 to 19% from the peak.

Not hiding it.

But one good thing is that I had already mentioned earlier that I was raising cash.
I booked a large part of my portfolio into cash before this phase intensified.

Even now, I’m still sitting on nearly 40% cash 🏦

And honestly, right now cash itself feels like a strong position.

Because yes, the market has corrected hard, but despite that, I still don’t see many high conviction opportunities where I feel like deploying aggressive capital.

That itself says a lot about this market phase.

Almost 70% of my invested portfolio is tilted toward large cap IT 💻
And that turned out to be one of the hardest hit sectors of 2026.

📉 Infosys down more than 30% from highs
📉 TCS corrected nearly 25%
📉 HCL Tech heavily damaged
📉 Reliance stayed under pressure for months
📉 Even HDFC Bank and Kotak failed to deliver meaningful returns despite being considered “safe” stocks

And it’s not just large caps getting hit.

The biggest illusion right now is that people think small cap and mid cap indices are still doing fine.

Reality is very different.

A handful of heavyweight stocks are holding the indices together.

Otherwise, the average small cap and mid cap stock is still nearly 25 to 35% below its highs 📊

That’s why so many portfolios feel completely destroyed even when the index itself doesn’t look that scary.

Now look at the actual market breadth:

📌 Feb 2025 → 81% of Nifty 500 stocks below 200 DMA
📌 Jan 2026 → 70% below
📌 Mar 2026 → 67% below

Right now:

🔴 84 stocks at 52 week lows
🟢 Only 15 stocks at 52 week highs

Out of 500.

During the peak of the COVID crash, nearly 83% of stocks were below their 200 DMA.

We almost reached the same level again.

The only difference?
This time there was no panic on TV.

No breaking news.
No “market crash” headlines.

Just portfolios bleeding silently in the background.

And honestly, the system itself isn’t helping either.

💸 STCG
💸 LTCG
💸 STT
💸 GST
💸 Brokerage
💸 Stamp duty

At some point, the Finance Ministry and the Indian government need to seriously understand this:

Markets cannot keep attracting global and retail capital while continuously increasing friction through taxes and costs.

Retail investors are already sitting through brutal drawdowns, and FIIs have dozens of alternative markets globally.

Capital does not stay emotional.
It flows where participation is rewarded, confidence is protected, and investing feels attractive.

India has one of the strongest growth stories in the world 🌏
But the market ecosystem also needs to reflect that strength.

Because eventually, overtaxing and weakening investor sentiment starts damaging participation itself.

And if your portfolio is down badly right now, trust me, you are not alone 🤝

Large mutual funds are down.
Veteran investors are down.
Institutional portfolios are down.

This phase is just that brutal.

Some market phases test your analysis.
Some phases test your patience.

And some phases are designed to mentally break even strong investors.

But one thing I know for sure 📚

The more painful the phase, the more powerful the eventual recovery tends to be 🚀

You just have to survive long enough to see it 💯

#IndianStockMarket #BearMarket #DalalStreet #RetailInvestors #NirmalaSitharaman #FMMinister

[Yukti Agrawal (@Stockstix) @stockstix]

NIFTY 50🔥

NIFTY is very close to my major zone now. Be ready for a truckload of stocks. 👀📈

Once NIFTY approaches that key area, I will be actively tracking high-probability setups across multiple names. The focus will be on stocks showing strength, clean structure, and sharp reactions from key levels.

It turned out to be a great decision to completely book mutual funds around the 26,200 level. Also booked nearly 35% of my stock positions, which helped lock in gains at the right time.

Two days ago, I redeployed 40% of the mutual fund capital that was booked earlier. The remaining 40% is planned to be deployed around the first major zone that is approaching and rest will use as cash for any further big dip and pyramiding .

#StockPortfolio #stockmarketinvestor #niftycrash #nifty50

[Yukti Agrawal (@Stockstix) @stockstix]

NIFTY 50🔥

Quick update on my earlier view 👇

I had fully booked my mutual funds earlier, and today I’m planning to re-enter with 40% allocation.

Reason: Nifty in USD terms is near 19K levels, which makes this zone look relatively attractive from a broader perspective.

As for stocks, I’m still planning to wait for a few more days before getting aggressive.

So for now:
Partial mutual fund buying
Stocks on hold

Starting with flexi and multicap fund

#nifty50 #stockmarketinvestor

[Yukti Agrawal (@Stockstix) @stockstix]

📊 NIFTY IT is at its cheapest valuation in 5 years.

PE Ratio: 20.7x (5-year low)
All-Time Average PE: 22.2x
Discount: 24% below 3-year avg of 27.4x

Everyone is scared of IT right now. That's exactly when you should be paying attention.

A thread on why NIFTY IT is setting up for a generational entry. 🧵👇

#NIFTYIT #StockMarket #IndianStockMarket #NiftyIT

[Yukti Agrawal (@Stockstix) @stockstix]

MCX SILVER 🩸

"This aged like fine wine 🍷"

Silver went from narrative-driven euphoria to full blown capitulation. Exactly what was warned here.
₹4,20,000 ➝ ₹2,00,000 📉

We also said new narratives will emerge when Silver falls. And look around now: "Recession fears", "Dollar squeeze", "Industrial demand collapse" .. new stories, same cycle.

"No instrument can stay away from mean reversion for too long."

Mean reversion delivering. The crowd learned the hard way. 🎯

#mcxsilver #xauusd #xagusd

[Yukti Agrawal (@Stockstix) @stockstix]

Silver (XAGUSD)📉
Crashing 📉

On Feb 3rd, Warned you about the classic Bull Trap setup in Silver.

🩸Overall Silver has crashed 54% from its peak. From ₹4,20,000 to ₹2,00,000. From our alert level, it dropped another 28%.

While everyone was chasing the bounce, we told you to stay patient.

The chart never lies. The crowd always does.

#xagusd #xauusd #MCXSILVER

[Yukti Agrawal (@Stockstix) @stockstix]

NIFTY50 🔥
We went cash when the world went crazy. The chart was the kingdom. 🎯

Our NIFTY outlook over the last 50 days 👇

🔸 February 3: On the day of the India-US trade deal, we advised our community to book mutual fund profits and move to 35-45% cash.

🔸 March 13: We published a detailed NIFTY roadmap identifying three key accumulation zones.

🔸 March 19: "At first support, I'll politely request my neighbor… if you ever plan to sell your house, please sell it to me first." 😁

🔸 March 23: NIFTY has entered Zone 1. Exactly as mapped.

Preparation always beats reaction. The roadmap continues.

#StockNews #stockmarketindia #sensex #nifty50

[Yukti Agrawal (@Stockstix) @stockstix]

NIFTY 50 🔥

The Roadmap
Three zones. Three opportunities. One massive rally ahead.

Not financial advice. But if Nifty hits 19,963... sell your neighbour's house too. 😂
You're welcome. 🚀

#Nifty50 #NIFTYCRASH @kuttrapali26

[Yukti Agrawal (@Stockstix) @stockstix]

Dow -1200 📉
Nifty -900 📉

This is exactly why preparation matters more than prediction.

Cash is king ✅
Capital protected 😊

Those who mocked “cash”
Are now asking for levels. 🎯

#niftycrash #GIFTNIFTY #IranIsraelWar

[Yukti Agrawal (@Stockstix) @stockstix]

Now people will start searching for Warren Buffett quotes…

Trying to understand why he was sitting on a massive cash pile.

Liquidity looks boring at the top.
It looks genius during panic.

Cash is not inactivity.
Cash is optionality. 💰

And since February 3, I have repeatedly said I am cautious.
Booked mutual funds.
Shifted to cash.

Preparation is silent.
Results are loud. 🎯

#StockMarketindia #IranWar #niftycrash @kuttrapali26

[Yukti Agrawal (@Stockstix) @stockstix]

I urge the Finance Ministry to give due consideration to this in the upcoming Budget.

The government proudly runs schemes like Ladli Behna and Ladla Bhai to support specific sections of society – socially commendable, no doubt. But the same system has no Ladla Investor or Ladla Trader scheme for the people who silently fund the economy every single year.

Facts 👇

• STT + GST + STCG + LTCG = ₹1.9 – ₹2.2 lakh crore every year
• Nearly ₹2,00,000 CRORE annually from investors & traders alone
• No subsidy. No scheme. No recognition.

👉 We take the risk.
👉 We face the volatility.
👉 We absorb the losses.
👉 We still pay every rupee of tax on time.

When markets crash – no rescue.
When portfolios bleed – no support.
But when it’s time to collect revenue, the system never forgets us.
• STT deducted instantly
• GST charged immediately
• STCG & LTCG calculated precisely

Not a rupee delayed. Not a rupee forgiven.
This is not against welfare. This is about selective recognition.
The ones who create liquidity, fuel growth and fund development are taken for granted.

👉 Our money is welcomed.
👉 Our contribution is expected.
👉 Our voice is ignored.

#Budget2026 #StockMarketIndia #cnbc

[Yukti Agrawal (@Stockstix) @stockstix]

Targeted violence against Hindus in Bangladesh continues.
The UN speaks loudly on human rights elsewhere.

Why the silence here?
@UN @UNHumanRights must act, investigate, and hold perpetrators accountable.

#bangladeshihindu