Cope Capital

here for the lolz

[Cope Capital @cope_capital]

If you are not prudently unemotional your bias becomes support while reality becomes resistance.

[Tim Copeland @Timccopeland]

honestly this is one of my favourite tweets of all time

[Cope Capital @cope_capital]

@CFAcoinOnSol “My pleasure” 😂😂😂😂

[Cope Capital @cope_capital]

@CFAcoinOnSol This is ruthless

[Cope Capital @cope_capital]

@CFAcoinOnSol Lessssssgooooooooo 🔥🔥🔥🔥

[Cope Capital @cope_capital]

Agreed 🤝

[CFAcoinOnSOL @CFAcoinOnSol]

Gm

[unusual_whales @unusual_whales]

Yesterday the former SEC chair said that RoaringKitty manipulated $GME GameStop shares by tweeting memes.

Yet today Senator Tommy Tuberville is trading options on companies he legislates and Pelosi's portfolio hits all time highs.

But silence from the SEC chair.

[Cope Capital @cope_capital]

@Katdizzy_ @CFAcoinOnSol

[Cope Capital @cope_capital]

@CFAcoinOnSol @blockgraze KFC ain’t got nathen on that CFA biscuit my guy

[Citrini @citrini]

I have held between 9-13% of my book in ~20 Chinese names since late October.

At numerous points since then, Chinese equities reached the point where I’d say to myself “well…it can’t go down any more than that” and then typically what would happen is a quick bounce followed by a fade that was indeed lower than that.

The rest of my book being mostly exposed to names with excellent momentum like NVDA, ETN, LLY etc. had me, on multiple occasions, asking myself why I wasn’t just selling and rotating that money into the stuff that went up every day.

I asked myself this question so much that I came to the conclusion that anyone else with the misfortune of also being long China was probably asking the same. That meant that as long as those names kept going up, China would probably remain uninteresting to allocate to on the long side.

I figured I’d hazard a guess on how the opposite scenario would play out. My thought was an unwind of that dynamic would probably be a positive for China (unless it was driven by some “global recession”/crisis type impulse).

If my momentum names began selling off, I’d be in a bit of a situation considering that was my biggest factor tilt.

So, I started viewing china as a hedge, both in a macro sense and in a positioning sense. My two biggest risks, from where I stood, were a momentum factor unwind and a reacceleration of inflation. If momentum unwound, China - with its historically low valuations and general levels of uninterest by investors - would likely get a bid. If China’s economy began recovering, the “immaculate disinflation” we had been experiencing would likely face headwinds.

If given the option in portfolio construction to have the thing that goes up when all my other holdings are down be a core long term position rather than some motley collection of put options that puts me at the mercy of a bunch of math I hardly understand, I will pick the former every time.

I don’t think the psychological value of having a somewhat sizeable position that goes up while everything else goes down can be overstated. The worst thing that can befall an investor is not a drawdown but a loss of confidence, and having that is probably one of the best ways to ensure that doesn’t happen.

Now, of course, my reasoning was fraught with logical fallacies. Just because x goes down while y goes up does not necessitate the opposite is true. Still, sometimes go out on a limb.

YTD this collection of Chinese names is up about 15%, with the bulk of that being from the past month.

This is not a victory lap - the China basket is up about 21% since putting it on while my AI basket is up 36% over the same time frame. So I’d still be doing better if I’d just went even more long AI when I went long China.

If I had done that, though, the past month would have been a lot more difficult psychologically. I may have been more likely to make stupid decisions during a worse drawdown.

Just something to think about when you’re constructing your portfolio.

[Le Shrub🌳 @agnostoxxx]

Q1 2024: "Oil will never go up"

Q2 2024: "China will never go up"

Q3 2024: <insert Fintwit narrative>

[Roberto Rios @peruvian_bull]

this is it. we're moving to a new stage of the Endgame.

Japanese Yen ripping through barriers like paper, passing each level where the BoJ intervened before. The slow motion meltdown has finally begun to accelerate, and authorities are powerless to stop the decline, unless they want to dump their Treasuries.

Yellen probably on the phone with them tonight, warning dire consequences if they put their finger on the button to defend their currency. Japanese PM Kishida met with Biden this month, smiling on the surface, but pain underneath.

He knows, as Kuroda does, the terrible truth:

They are TRAPPED.

With debt to GDP at an eye-watering 263%, they can't afford to normalize rates with the Fed. Since they have to maintain low rates, a massive carry trade opens up, bolstering USD and pulling JPY down consistently. The longer the Fed keeps rates high the worse this blows out. News of a hot inflation in the US this morning made things worse, as now Powell has more justification for "higher for longer".

This means more pain ahead for the Asian behemoth.

In the US, massive 50% downside miss on GDP paired with hot PCE means stagflation is returning. With government interest expense at all time highs and trillion dollar deficits as far as the eye can see, this means more debt growth as we accelerate across the Monetary Event Horizon.

The walls are beginning to close in.

Attacks on Bitcoin have escalated, first with Feds arresting the developers of Samourai Wallet. Next Phoenix Wallet pulls their app from Appstore, and now DTCC is assigning 100% haircut to all crypto assets.

They're coming for the non-KYC wallets first. Then the nodes. Then self-custody.

Your privacy is at stake. Your future is at stake.

The truth is, they depend on us to keep the whole charade going. We man the barricades of the dying fiat monetary system. Without us working for their money, they have nothing to control us with.

"Look, the people you are after are the people you depend on. We cook your meals, we haul your trash, we connect your calls, we drive your ambulances. We guard you while you sleep. Do not... fuck with us." -Tyler Durden

[Kuppy @hkuppy]

They’ll spend taxpayer money on literally anyone EXCEPT taxpayers…

[Le Shrub🌳 @agnostoxxx]

Fed’s Williams said that rate hikes are on the table.
I called the Smartest Kid on Wall Street for an opinion 🥹

[Edward Snowden @Snowden]

Cool. So this week the Senate is voting to let the NSA take over the internet and authorize warrantless surveillance of Americans, and the House is voting to take another hundred billion dollars from you (a tenth of a trillion!) to squander on fruitless foreign wars. Very cool.

[Cope Capital @cope_capital]

@Cancelcloco Can you dm pdf sir 🙏🏼🫡

[Cope Capital @cope_capital]

@TonyIsHere4You @RJRCapital If you wanna be cute short gold long platinum

[Cope Capital @cope_capital]

@TonyIsHere4You @RJRCapital Especially platinum

[Cope Capital @cope_capital]

@CoinControversy The Guy Fieri of crypto

[Cope Capital @cope_capital]

@agnostoxxx I love your content, have been following for years. I would love to subscribe but can’t afford it :( is there anyway to gift or give what I can to possibly have a chance at higher enlightenment @agnostoxxx oh divine market observer 🙏🏼👼🏼 promise to repent my sins daily

[Cope Capital @cope_capital]

Some call it destiny, some call it fate; I call it reality