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β Nyara Sabaly Under 14.5 Points
β Kayla McBride Over 15.5 Points
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Chelsea Gray over 21.5 PRA
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Posted hours early in Discord. Analysis‡οΈ
Chelsea Gray and the Aces return home after their long 5 game road trip to face the Mystics. I like this spot for Gray who sat out for rest last game, so she should be well rested.
She also has performed better at home this season. At home with 25+ minutes Gray averages 24.4 PRA shooting 46% on FG's going over this line in 10/13. On the road in this same situation of 25+ minutes, She is over in only 9/19. So clearly plays better at home and this is a nice spot for her skillset too.
Mystics are a jumpshot funnel, they have limited paint pts well giving up the 2nd fewest. This hurts A'ja and Jackie more than Gray as they rely more on scoring near the rim. Chelsea only gets 6% of her total made FG's in the restricted area this season. Notably 278 of her 316 total FG attempts have been jump shots.
WSH is giving up the most pull-up FG attempts in their last 10 games, Chelsea leads the Aces in pull-up frequency taking 53% of her shots as pull-ups. Mystics also give up the 4th most 3-PT attempts in the last 10 games, Gray takes 48.7% of her total shots from 3-PT range.
This is a great spot for her to score, we already saw her take advantage of this matchup in the previous meeting in July going for 24 PRA on 18 FG+FTA with a 20.5 USG.
Dana Evans is also out which takes away a ball handler and secures huge mins for Gray. With a 15+% USG with A'ja and Jackie IN but Evans OUT, we see Gray avg 27.2 PRA per game with 25+ mins (over in 11/13).
At home with Evans out and A'Ja+Jackie in, Gray is over this line in 7/8 when seeing 25+ minutes. The only miss was by the hook. Obviously Carter is not with the team anymore too, Gray is needed to play big minutes with limited guard depth. Typically seeing mid-upper 30's minutes in non blowouts.
This line was routinely closing 22.5/23.5 in games Evans was out earlier, so we are getting a great buy low spot after coming up short of this line in recent games. Good home splits and matchup here.
Widely available on DFS sites and sportsbooks. Best line currently -110 on BetOnline and Bovada.
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