The first step in policy analysis is figuring out what's going wrong. And by my view, we're facing two crises: A tariff crisis, and a crisis of confidence built upon fears incompetence.
Let me lay it out, wonk it out and math it out, and maybe get a bit testy along the way.
🧵 News flash, Hoosiers: SB1 is standard operating procedure for the GOP supermajority.
They "cut" spending but shovel the burden to the local level.
"Oh, we're not going to adequately fund education but *you* can pass a school referendum if you want!"
A HOF level matchup between Warsaw and Fishers is coming to the world’s largest high school fieldhouse! Followed by another one featuring Greenfield-Central and Jeffersonville!
Join us at the 2024 Boys’ HOF Classic (Sat. Dec. 28) Tickets available at the link in our bio.
#IN49OtherStates 🏀
The fixed mortgage rate hit 7% yesterday. Just a few weeks ago, it was flirting with 6% and appeared headed into the 5s. The mortgage rate is up despite the Fed’s decision to cut the federal funds rate by half a percentage point and signal that more cuts are coming. What’s going on? First, the strong economy is even stronger than anticipated, causing investors to re-think how quickly the Fed will cut rates. Equally important is investors’ rising expectation that former President Trump will win re-election (look at betting markets). Investors are taking Trump at his word and believe if he wins it will lead to higher tariffs, immigrant deportations, and deficit -financed tax cuts in a full employment economy, all of which means higher inflation and more government borrowing. The recent surge in mortgage rates is a clear indication what investors believe a Trump victory would mean for the economy and the nation’s fiscal outlook.
"We're withholding our endorsement because our owner is frightened of government retaliation if Donald Trump wins" is a more forceful and eloquent statement than any newspaper editorial ever written.
Broad-based tariff hikes are a bad idea. They will cause some combination of higher inflation and higher interest rates and result in a diminished economy. My latest piece for the @PhillyInquirer.
https://t.co/iMbxt3zY4b
The following two things can be true at the same time
Immigrants can be a large help to revitalizing communities that have struggled
And
Integrating new immigrant community members can place large and difficult strains on local resources