Liverpool Cotton Brokers x WizCot

Cotton broker/consultant. Any views or opinions are solely that of the author for information only. No post shall be intended or construed as promotion to trade

[Liverpool Cotton Brokers x WizCot @cot_wiz]

🔔Results of the Bloomberg US cotton planting intentions survey ahead of tonight’s eagerly anticipated USDA Prospective Plantings report.

#cotton #futures #oatt #agtrading #commoditymarkets

[Liverpool Cotton Brokers x WizCot @cot_wiz]

Aside from technicals the market has us on high alert for a swift move to the upside, driven largely by short covering by MM, continuing stimulus in China and weakening USD. Over the next 7 weeks MM will either have to roll or liquidate their short position in the front month. Simply put, MM are short far more bales than the deliverable supply can offer (note cumulative US 24/25 MY commitments stand at 10.48mln bales vs 11mln bales export target) The trade can control the board and MM will be put to the sword.

#cotton #futures #oatt #agtrading #commoditymarkets #shortsqueeze #commitmentoftraders

[Liverpool Cotton Brokers x WizCot @cot_wiz]

Unfortunately the shorter timeframe reversal signals previously identified were unable to transfer into the daily and #cotton succumbed to bad habits, slipping back into the downtrend, and making a new seasonal low of 62.54 on 4th March basis CTK5. One thing we noted lacking last time was the completion of a 5 wave move to the downside (though we don’t rank Elliot Wave high on our indicators), but we can now see evidence a wave 5 of 5 has formed, reserving judgment on whether it has completed until we observe further confirmation.

#cotton #futures #oatt #agtrading #commoditymarkets #technicalanalysis

[Liverpool Cotton Brokers x WizCot @cot_wiz]

🚨Cotton technicals update

CTK5 Daily - broken downtrend, just above 50 day SMA, MACD bullish strengthening

CTK5 240 Mins - above all major SMA’s with 50 heading towards bullish cross of 100 and trending up

CTK5 daily showing the most successful technical indicators of the last 12 months - Triangular MA, K Bands and Fear & Greed indicator - all bullish!

#cotton #futures #oatt #agtrading #commoditymarkets

[Liverpool Cotton Brokers x WizCot @cot_wiz]

Based on the NCC acreage survey results for the 25/26 MY, if we take the 10 year avg yield & abandonment we could see US cotton production drop to 13.54 mln stat bales, or based on the 5 year avg as low as 12.46 mln. In extreme circumstances with abandonment as high as 22/23 MY, it could fall to 9.21 mln!

#cotton #futures #oatt #agtrading #commoditymarkets

[Liverpool Cotton Brokers x WizCot @cot_wiz]

Still preemptive and lacking daily confirmation, but CTK5 is setting up nicely for a bull rally! COT analysis also supports a tipping point is near. Distribution SD & fib retracements align. H/K spread narrowing supporting

#cotton #futures #oatt #agtrading #commoditymarkets

[Liverpool Cotton Brokers x WizCot @cot_wiz]

Part 2

#cotton #futures #oatt #agtrading #commoditymarkets #hedging #riskmanagement #textiles #markets #macroeconomic #marketresearch

[Liverpool Cotton Brokers x WizCot @cot_wiz]

Tough times require tough decisions. In our latest public report we explore the conflicting views on price direction and try to make some sense of the complex market dynamics.

LCB is ready to help you understand and manage price risks. Don’t hesitate to reach out for more info

Part 1

#cotton #futures #oatt #agtrading #commoditymarkets #hedging #riskmanagement #textiles #markets #macroeconomic #marketresearch

[Liverpool Cotton Brokers x WizCot @cot_wiz]

@nunncottoninc Congrats Jim!

[Liverpool Cotton Brokers x WizCot @cot_wiz]

US production is in focus ahead of this month’s WASDE report after multiple storms hit the Midsouth and Hurricane Helene impacted the Southeast cotton belt. Although full damage assessments are weeks away, there's likely enough evidence already to justify further cuts to US production, despite many in the trade previously considering the September WASDE estimate too low.

Bloomberg analyst survey estimates below.

#cotton #futures #oatt #agtrading #commoditymarkets

[Liverpool Cotton Brokers x WizCot @cot_wiz]

The Perfect Bull Storm… 🐂⛈️

ICE cotton futures have surged over 12.5% in 8 weeks, driven by storms like Hurricane Helene 🌪️ and global economic shifts.

Read our latest insights below! 📈

#cotton #futures #oatt #agtrading #commoditymarkets #bullmarket #weathermarket #Helene

[Liverpool Cotton Brokers x WizCot @cot_wiz]

While another test of the lows cannot be ruled out, here are some arguments that support why we may have seen our seasonal low in cotton…

#cotton #futures #oatt #agtrading #commoditymarkets #hedging #riskmanagement

[Earlam & Partners Ltd @Earlampartners]

USDA Acreage Report: 11.7 million acres of cotton planted, up 14%, including 11.5 million acres of Upland cotton, up 14%, and 182,000 acres of American Pima, up 24%. Higher than the March Prospective Plantings of 10.7 million acres total, and analyst average estimates (10.8).

[Liverpool Cotton Brokers x WizCot @cot_wiz]

Not a lot of life left in #CTN4, but I suspect we’re in for more volatility before it’s over. Spec shorts look most under pressure and the trade controls the board. Structurally I have to favour the long side. Chart supports a continued rally to 38.2% fib retrace

#cotton #oatt

[loucottonballs @loucottonballs]

"The mills backs are against the wall"

Also the mills

[Liverpool Cotton Brokers x WizCot @cot_wiz]

On an average weighted price basis spec longs are taking on water and it’s potentially only a matter of time now until they head sharply for the exits. Although there is fundamental support under the market with ICE at current levels and non US basis as low as it’s been for some time bringing yarn breakevens back into play; once the barrage of spec liquidation begins, end users will likely stand back and watch. Basis will be allowed to recover slightly and the focus will shift to the N/Z inverse

#cotton #futures #oatt #agtrading #commoditymarkets

[Liverpool Cotton Brokers x WizCot @cot_wiz]

Without doubt, the US balance sheet is tight but don’t be blind to the fact that specs are the reason #ICE is where it is. There are plenty of US cancellations and switches taking place, US sales have slowed to snail pace and non US growth basis is getting slashed, not just at origin but also from merchant hands who have to start moving illiquid inventory, or stare down the N/Z spread. The uncompetitiveness of US #cotton is showing signs that the best home for it could be the board and the trade may be starting to show their hand. Cert stocks now stand at 26,665 bales, up 25,680 since the end of Feb

#futures #oatt #agtrading #commoditymarkets

[Liverpool Cotton Brokers x WizCot @cot_wiz]

Higher cotton prices driven by speculation not fundamentals -https://t.co/p51nZm9uaV

Thanks for the quote @insidedenimWTP

#cotton #oatt

[Liverpool Cotton Brokers x WizCot @cot_wiz]

Ahead of Friday’s WASDE report, below are the early analyst survey results for #cotton. Rumours in the trade support further US production cuts and based latest ginnings report seems justified. What’s less likely is an increase in consumption, given where ICE is

#oatt #agtrading

[Liverpool Cotton Brokers x WizCot @cot_wiz]

After a sizeable contribution from the specs, today’s US #cotton export sales report is confirmation that ICE has more than done its job of rationing physical demand to preserve ending stocks. Calling a top during a short squeeze is fool worthy but you can draw plenty comparisons of previous top reversals

#futures #oatt #agtrading #commoditymarkets