Sir Capone

[Sir Capone @Covfeifei]

@signulll It’s the exact same playbook as the car industry. Time and again, protectionism just leads to stagnation and entrenched corporations have zero incentive to compete and do better.

[Sir Capone @Covfeifei]

@arena @Kimi_Moonshot Amazing. I expect open-weight models will continue to bridge the gap and even outshine closed-weight models.

[Sir Capone @Covfeifei]

@0zeUJmjvCT23035 @PAGE4163929 @bennyjohnson If we sat back and watched, you’d be under Soviet rule and communism right now. You wouldn’t have the prosperity and boom from the 1960s onwards, or US support and financial aid.

[Sir Capone @Covfeifei]

@PAGE4163929 @bennyjohnson Actually all places were legitimate targets and the nukes were necessary to immediately force Japan to surrender. Otherwise an invasion would’ve led to more casualties. The gov’t of Japan is to blame for dragging the war on.

[Sir Capone @Covfeifei]

@RT_com Yea this man and all his associates need to be locked up for life for all the brazen acts of corruption against the country. Truly despicable. Public servants should not be prioritizing profit over country.

[Sir Capone @Covfeifei]

@JacobKinge Trump’s great at rug pulls, whether intentional or unintentional through sheer incompetence and corruption. People who buy this have no one to blame but themselves.

[Majid Hosseini @m4h007]

Iran’s fundamental mistake is that it believes this war is not existential for the US.

This war is existential for the so called American pact aka Pax Americana. The pact in which the US provided investments, military protection, and a very sophisticated financial infrastructure. In return, the other participants focused on what they could do best. The division of labor, and comparative advantage: China: high quality labor, GCC Arabs: cheap and reliable energy, etc.

As part of the pact, any excess capital from these participants would get invested in US financial markets, primarily in the form US treasuries, but also venture capital (eg Saudi money in Softbank), and other instruments.

This did two things:
1-Lower the cost of capital in the US. This meant lower interest rates, higher stock market, more money available for startups, lower housing costs, and many other things.

2-The invested capital served as a hostage, a guarantee of good behavior by those in the system, which supplied some level of stability to the pact. The US could theoretically seize or freeze the assets of any misbehaving participants.

Parts of this pact have already been going away. China is not a US satellite state or even a partner. It is a competitor, building its own pact in the form of Belt and Road Initiative. It is also reducing its exposure to US treasuries and increasing its gold reserves.

If the US loses its dominance over the Persian gulf, another part of this pact will break. The GCC Arab states have lost their protection, while still having a hostage in the US. That’s an incentive to reduce their exposure and diversify their assets out of the US.

It will also send a signal to everyone else in US orbit that the military protection is not available anymore.

As these orbit states reduce their exposure to US assets, the cost of capital in the US will rise: higher interest rates, lower stock market, higher home financing costs, fewer startups, etc.

Furthermore, the US has $31T public debt, with average maturity of 5.9 years. As the interest rates rise, the cost of rolling over this debt is going to rise.

Last but not least, there’s about $1.6T in additional debt that gets added every year, which will be paying higher interest.

As the debt/GDP ratio rises, the feedback loop kicks in: the US has to pay a higher interest rate to keep the same investor.

This is why the loss of the Persian Gulf is so significant for the US.

I might write a later post about the effect of rates on debt financing.

[Sir Capone @Covfeifei]

@Gubloinvestor The amount of mental gymnastics needed to defend political corruption here is baffling. American politicians are corrupted to the core and only care about stuffing their own pockets. Also China is at least 25 years ahead of the US in actual development.

[AYi @AYi_AInotes]

看了新晋亚洲首富孙正义 这个最新访谈睡不着了，

6 月 1 号他在巴黎接受CNBC 专访时透漏了很多未来的财富密码，

明确表示下一个万亿美元机会,是 Physical AI 和机器人。

以及这一波 AI 革命的规模,
大概率是互联网泡沫时代的 50 倍,
是人类经历过最大的一次技术与实现革命。

我看了一圈中文圈的反应,
绝大多数人都把这条当普通新闻刷过去了,

过去三年我们忙着教 AI 写代码、画图、聊天,
但下一个十年,AI很可能会从屏幕里走出来,站起来,迈出腿,动手做事。

也就是说,
我们现在练的所有 prompt 技巧、Agent 编排、内容生成等等本质上都还在无身体的 AI这一层。

未来真正决定下一代生产力地形的是有身体的那一层，

下面这几条,是我把这件事彻底想透之后,
给普通人能用上的一份认知和财富进���地图 👇

[Sir Capone @Covfeifei]

@zhao_dashuai 辜鸿铭 对日本人的评价：“知小礼而无大义,拘小节而无大德,重末节而轻廉耻,畏威而不怀德,强必盗寇,弱必卑伏”。

[Sir Capone @Covfeifei]

@CgtnJapanese I saw the live performance a few months ago. It was spectacular and incredibly narrated without any words.

[Sir Capone @Covfeifei]

@HomerPavlos Why can’t Greece make its own historical movies though?

[Sir Capone @Covfeifei]

@Write4Republic Here you go buddy. Fixed it for ya.

[Sir Capone @Covfeifei]

@AFpost The US is great at tactical combat and withdrawals but has no understanding of grand strategy. What even is the point of this war?

[Sir Capone @Covfeifei]

@Lebanon_John The petrodollar could be lost the longer this pointless war on Iran continues. The hubris of stretching commitments globally with a deflated industrial base and hyper-inflated financial markets are all symptoms of a late stage empire.

[Sir Capone @Covfeifei]

@truthstreamnews This will fail. In the long-term, open sourced agents will prove superior and cost competitive to these locked down corporate-controlled AI models. You just need a device to run it on and it'll benefit from distributed improvements from the open-source community.

[Tuki @TukiFromKL]

🚨This is so much worse than you think.

> Amazon laid off 30,000 engineers. Then told the ones who survived that their bonuses depend on how much they use AI to write code. So engineers started using AI to push changes faster, because their paycheck literally depends on it.

> And then the site went down. Multiple times. Amazon's own shopping app broke because AI-generated code got pushed to production.

> So what did management do? Did they take responsibility for forcing engineers to use AI they weren't ready for? Did they admit they created the problem?

No. They called a mandatory meeting and blamed the engineers.

> AI is powerful enough to replace engineers, we've been saying that all day. But it's not powerful enough to replace quality control AND common sense all at once.

Amazon proved that executives who don't understand AI are more dangerous than the AI itself.

And every company rushing to do the same thing is watching this and learning absolutely nothing.

[Seyfeddin Kara @KaraSeyfeddin]

What we are witnessing is the biggest decolonisation movement in history. A depraved narcissist and a genocidal maniac together triggered the Iranian nation to liberate the entire Middle East and perhaps beyond. Since the Sykes-Picot agreement (1916), Middle Easterners have had no choice but to "capitulate".

Many of our intellectuals in the Arab world and Turkey knew nothing but complicity within this colonial system; their minds, like the resources of their countries, having been colonised. The #Iranian nation, having raised so many brave scholars, intellectuals, and activists, has shown the world that there is another way; if one is willing to accept the pain and suffering that comes with it.

As Frantz Fanon put it best in his Wretched of the Earth, the colonial system's greatest weapon is violence, and no one can endure de-colonisation without embracing pain. But once the threshold of pain is crossed with patience and forbearance, there is nothing that can stop the inevitable collapse of oppression.

Forged by the culture of Karbala, the Iranian people embrace pain and suffering as a religious virtue, and through their remarkable unity and national consciousness (as we see in the millions now filling the streets, defying death) they are perhaps the most equipped people to deliver the Middle East from centuries of colonialism.

Once the current fighting is all over, we will wake up to a new world where American hegemony is no longer the norm in the region, but a remnant of a terrible past.

[Sir Capone @Covfeifei]

@sashameetsrus Yup the leadership in the US sits in a geographically isolated area, away from the consequences of their actions. However, Mideast bases and allies will remain exposed. We’ll see if the US can meet its defense obligations or lose credibility with allies.

[Sir Capone @Covfeifei]

@Anarseldain