$ES Daily Plan | June 16
Quiet globex inside Monday's balance. We're sitting at the VAL of the all-time-high multi-day distribution. The question into RTH: can buyers reclaim the low after yesterday's failed attempt, or are they exhausted up here — opening the door to repair Monday's gap?
Bullish above 7583. Primary long is a failed breakdown in the 7607–7600 zone — sellers pile under prior day value, get trapped, buyers reclaim. Confluence with the 20-day volume shelf. Acceptance back into the ATH distribution opens a run at the multi-day POC (7660) and VAH (7683). Break and hold above pdVAH, I enter on the impulse to confirm acceptance.
Open to shorts at pdVAH. Sellers defended the balance low yesterday — they need to do it again. I want strong rejection AT pdVAH, not a probe above it. A clean lower high here is the only structure that puts me in a bearish stance. PDH is the absolute line in the sand for sellers.
No trade: two-day balance forms with no clean failed auctions at the edges.
FOMC starts today, decision tomorrow. Pre-Fed sessions compress. Not forcing anything into the balance.
$ES Daily Plan | June 15
War's over — framework reached over the weekend, signing Friday in Switzerland. ES gapped 100 handles and is holding the overnight rally. Buyers defended the opening print through globex.
The key question into RTH: does renewed macro optimism keep the auction one-sided, or do the sellers who drove last week's breakdown step back in to form a lower high?
Bullish above 7508. Looking for longs into the 7518 / 7508 zone — the isolated HVN edge aligning with weekly VWAP. A look-below-and-fail here with sellers absorbed and a relentless bid is my primary long. A break and hold back above 7555 also flips me long toward the highs. Targets: 7544 / 7555 / 7578 / 7600.
Open to shorts 7544–7555. We've rallied straight into last week's breakdown level and the naked VAL. A look-above-and-fail through this zone — trapped buyers absorbed, smaller sell effort rewarded — opens a rotation lower. But a break and hold above 7555 invalidates the short and I'm hunting longs again. Targets: 7513 / 7490 / 7480.
No trade: rotation inside the isolated node, IB forming around globex POC.
7508 is the bull line. 7555 is the pivot. Not chasing the gap — waiting for the levels to prove themselves.
Watching $ONDS for swing potential . Took ORB entry . Also grabbed some calls for a few months out . Been coiling sideways all year . I think a breakout is imminent
Watching $ONDS for swing potential . Took ORB entry . Also grabbed some calls for a few months out . Been coiling sideways all year . I think a breakout is imminent