Every team, in every position, is always better off trying to win. That's the whole point.
@BillSimmons I know you said you're done reviewing draft solutions, but give this one a shot.
@ZachLowe_NBA@ChrisRyan77@SeanFennessey I think you guys will like this one too
The NBA draft lottery is broken. It rewards teams for being bad and gives nothing to teams that improve.
I built a trajectory-based lottery model to fix it.
Here's the problem, the fix, and what the last two drafts would look like under it. π§΅
Then I projected 2026 standings as of today.
San Antonio leads the lottery at 1,350 balls despite being a top-3 team right now. Yes, a playoff team has the best draft odds. And honestly? That's an acceptable tradeoff. The alternative is a system that told the Spurs two years ago that losing was their best strategy. I'd rather reward the team that actually rebuilt correctly.
Charlotte is #2 at 1,100, rewarded for finally climbing out of the bottom 4 after years of stagnation. Sacramento has the worst record in the league but picks 6th, not 1st.