Christian

recovering lawyer, now deploying mixed method research at scale previously impossible | proud alum of @Harvard_Law @BrownUniversity

[Christian @cplans_]

After 3 long years, I’m coming home LA 👊🏼

[Christian @cplans_]

Every team, in every position, is always better off trying to win. That's the whole point.

@BillSimmons I know you said you're done reviewing draft solutions, but give this one a shot.

@ZachLowe_NBA @ChrisRyan77 @SeanFennessey I think you guys will like this one too

[Christian @cplans_]

The NBA draft lottery is broken. It rewards teams for being bad and gives nothing to teams that improve.
I built a trajectory-based lottery model to fix it.

Here's the problem, the fix, and what the last two drafts would look like under it. 🧵

[Christian @cplans_]

Then I projected 2026 standings as of today.

San Antonio leads the lottery at 1,350 balls despite being a top-3 team right now. Yes, a playoff team has the best draft odds. And honestly? That's an acceptable tradeoff. The alternative is a system that told the Spurs two years ago that losing was their best strategy. I'd rather reward the team that actually rebuilt correctly.

Charlotte is #2 at 1,100, rewarded for finally climbing out of the bottom 4 after years of stagnation. Sacramento has the worst record in the league but picks 6th, not 1st.

[Christian @cplans_]

@citygorl This sounds absolutely despicable

[Christian @cplans_]

@RealJustinJia erewhon redux incoming 👀

[Christian @cplans_]

@andymettry Let’s link I’m in for the week too

[Christian @cplans_]

@ninvre For half a semester 💀💀💀

[Christian @cplans_]

@ninvre Ah yes my former roommate everclear nick

[Christian @cplans_]

@mobasiolu Come thru homie

[Christian @cplans_]

@zandergunn My fave book of 2021 :-)

[Christian @cplans_]

@mobasiolu Thanks homie 🙏🏼

[Diane Doniol-Valcroze @ddoniolvalcroze]

A demon flattening someone out and preparing to cut them into soba noodles, Japanese Hell Scrolls ~ 1855