CraftedNBA

NBA
Past and Present

[CraftedNBA @craftedNBA]

@kingtisemedia this isn't forward looking, it is backwards looking. it is not how good you might be, it is how good you have been

[CraftedNBA @craftedNBA]

Standings that know who you beat ->

https://t.co/NL58lPPW5Z

[CraftedNBA @craftedNBA]

The 76ers are first in the east at 9-2. Crafted Points has them 11th.

The Wolves are 8-3 and rank 1st. Average schedule, winning by over 10 points per game.

Crafted Points sees what a team's record and net rating misses.

[CraftedNBA @craftedNBA]

Run this for any nba player ->

https://t.co/0M8Q21NeBv

[CraftedNBA @craftedNBA]

Yaxel Lendeborg's closest comps through his first month in the NBA (aged 23/24/25):

[CraftedNBA @craftedNBA]

@I_Am_Angel84 we have a different formula that better tracks "impact" on the game

[CraftedNBA @craftedNBA]

Victor Wembanyama's 52 PTS, 24 REB, 8 BLK night is the best single game of the season by a mile.

His 71.6 Game Score is 19 points clear of anyone else. Luka owns three of the next four spots.

Top 10 games so far

[CraftedNBA @craftedNBA]

The Pacers schedule is about to be absolutely brutal

[CraftedNBA @craftedNBA]

Today's picks and the full tracked record ->

https://t.co/hhcw4D4yk2

[CraftedNBA @craftedNBA]

Two weeks into the season, our projection model vs. the Vegas line:
• Spreads: 42-24
• Totals: 35-26

Every pick is locked before tip and every result stays on the board, wins and losses.

[CraftedNBA @craftedNBA]

Every day we simulate the rest of the NBA season 50,000 times. Here's how it works:

Starting point: our preseason projections. Every team opens the season at its preseason projection: projected minutes for everyone on the roster, combined with each player's projected Crafted Plus/Minus.
Blending in the live season: As games are played, live data takes over gradually: player minutes and roles, each player's in-season Crafted OPM and DPM, and each team's actual results, adjusted for opponent and home court. A few games move the numbers a little; half a season moves them a lot. Nothing jumps overnight.
Injuries: Players on the injury report are removed from the games they are expected to miss, and season-ending injuries carry into the playoffs.
Simulating the season: Each remaining game is decided by the two teams' ratings, home court and game-to-game randomness, plus season-long uncertainty about how good each team really is. That uncertainty shrinks as results come in.
Playoffs: Standings are settled with NBA tiebreakers, then the Play-In and every playoff series are simulated with rotations tightened around each team's top players.
The simulations add up to the win totals, seeding odds, and playoff and championship probabilities below. The arrows under projected records show the change since the preseason projection.

[CraftedNBA @craftedNBA]

Jalen Williams is out for the season.

OKC title odds: 37% → 17%

Still the favorite. Just a much thinner one.

[CraftedNBA @craftedNBA]

@Tutiodeportivo yes

[CraftedNBA @craftedNBA]

The Wolves are 3–1, and the projection has them at 50–32. That is 7.5 wins above the preseason number.

The Heat are 0–4, down to 33–49.

[CraftedNBA @craftedNBA]

Full Projections

https://t.co/HVNRMXaVVJ

[CraftedNBA @craftedNBA]

Full list
https://t.co/FAkOGtSNkF

Explanation
https://t.co/EXiO2eqYrP

[CraftedNBA @craftedNBA]

Made a pretty substantial update to my metric for quantifying “Basketball IQ.”

Same idea as in 2024: measuring on-court decision-making, not grading anyone’s intelligence.

The full table is live. Top 10 in the image.

#NBA

[CraftedNBA @craftedNBA]

@Huntrell10 beat Mitch last week to start 1-0, so I got that going for me

[CraftedNBA @craftedNBA]

Full projections, updated every hour ->

https://t.co/HVNRMXao6b