Steve Crawshaw

CTO software co specialising in decision support and business forecasting; mathematician

[Steve Crawshaw @crawshaw_steve]

@ChrisHowellFCA @moving_charlie Many things distort the market - like waiting for a probable rate cut or not buying because you think stamp duty may be scrapped. You have to use common sense.

[Steve Crawshaw @crawshaw_steve]

@moving_charlie Seems unrealistic - before Thatcher 40% in social housing. I don’t see why it would be different today. Min wage 40hrs/wk, 30% of take home on mortgage implies mortgage of around £100k

[Steve Crawshaw @crawshaw_steve]

@RachOZoe @moving_charlie Yes - they will do anything to keep the headline price because that is what they will tell the buyer if the next house - we got £300k. But kitchen upgrades, better flooring, moving costs etc are all on the table.

[Steve Crawshaw @crawshaw_steve]

@moving_charlie There is no housing market for the next 3 months. Why would you pay stamp duty now when Mr Burnham might scrap it? They are never going to give it back and a LVT means you double pay.

[Steve Crawshaw @crawshaw_steve]

@moving_charlie I completed in April - asked 455k sold 445k. You say there are big differences across country and between freehold & leasehold - what’s the point of combining them into a single picture?

[Steve Crawshaw @crawshaw_steve]

@BigStu77728 @kaya85kaya @moving_charlie Wouldn’t it? So existing owners who bought in the last 10 years would be in negative equity so unable to afford to sell (see leasehold today), lenders would tighten up lending and FTB would still be blocked. Falls are never good - stable is good.

[Steve Crawshaw @crawshaw_steve]

@kaya85kaya @NM_Rdg @moving_charlie Or it might be council tax PLUS %

[Steve Crawshaw @crawshaw_steve]

@moving_charlie How do they get away with it? PS BBC did not report this story.

[Steve Crawshaw @crawshaw_steve]

@kaya85kaya @moving_charlie If the gov really starts charging a lot then house prices will just fall - a house becomes unsellable if the tax is £5k per year (cf leasehold service charge) thus raising less tax.

[Steve Crawshaw @crawshaw_steve]

@moving_charlie So I should save money … but what is the value of the house?

[Steve Crawshaw @crawshaw_steve]

@DanielPriestley @garyseconomics I don't think the markets will be that kind. If he says we are going to raise £50bn in wealth taxes to spend on 'investment' then the markets really have to believe it is going to work. Personally I think they'll just take the money out of bank accounts and pension pots.

[Steve Crawshaw @crawshaw_steve]

@MerrynSW @moving_charlie People just won’t sell until Labour are out of power

[Steve Crawshaw @crawshaw_steve]

@RichieLionel81 @PJTheEconomist You can’t grow wages at the bottom. If you pay the sandwich make £50 per hour then how much will sandwiches cost? All you can do is minimise their costs (food, housing, transport, utilities, taxes).

[Steve Crawshaw @crawshaw_steve]

@Dioclet54046121 @moving_charlie I doubt it. Hampshire CC wants £600m to fix the roads & they only get £60m. Just to point out that at £50k each that would be 1200 people. Where are they all? £2m to build a cycle lane - that’s 40 people for a year - I never saw more than 6!

[Steve Crawshaw @crawshaw_steve]

@RichieLionel81 @PJTheEconomist You know we already have the most distributive tax system in the world? Something tells me that taxing the rich is about votes and not about growing the economy.

[Steve Crawshaw @crawshaw_steve]

@muggwhump @PJTheEconomist Elephant in the room… section 24 housing reform means landlords can deduct 20% of their mortgage cost before tax - so £1k rent, £800 mortgage, LL pays £336 in tax - ie they make a loss. Why did you think that rents went up by almost 40%? Did you think it’s LL getting the cash?

[Steve Crawshaw @crawshaw_steve]

@DanielPriestley I heard some young starlet on the radio the otherday and she said she hated capitalism. I guess she'll be sharing out her Spotify & royalties revenue then!

[Steve Crawshaw @crawshaw_steve]

@BGatesIsaPyscho @grok Not head on - both southbound

[Steve Crawshaw @crawshaw_steve]

@moving_charlie Now separate out leasehold which is untouchable for buyers and lenders