crushspread

Chinese agricultural analysis

[crushspread @crushspread]

I'm not smart enough to translate any of this. But there are so many memes

[crushspread @crushspread]

This story about wheat harvesting has gone viral in China. Cut 4, Compensate 5. Much like the US, people with combines travel to harvest the wheat.

[crushspread @crushspread]

To help the situation, the local Ministry of Agriculture says they have big mu (亩) and small (亩). A mu is 1/15th of a hectare. But apparently in Hubei, it can also be much larger, based on historical assessments of land quality.

[crushspread @crushspread]

This sort of got mentioned as well in a China Meteorological Administration press conference on Friday

[crushspread @crushspread]

China's largest wheat province is starting large-scale harvesting. Vegetative Health Index has gone from the worst since 2000 at the start of the year to the best.

[crushspread @crushspread]

Going more granual, most areas are showing pretty wild readings. My theory is farmers planted a lot more seeds to compensate for the late planting, but maybe did too many, and that's why VHI readings are so extreme. But that's not great for actual grain yield.

[crushspread @crushspread]

Oh Europe
Try to buy a €7 charging cable.
Can only find it on Amazon Germany.
Order immediately cancelled for suspected fraud.
Verify identity (3 business day wait).
"You can now place a new order since we cancelled the first one".

[crushspread @crushspread]

I wonder when Word's grammar suggestions got so bold, but also so wrong.

Writing a sentence starting with "Following the news," and Word wants to change that to "According to the news,"

The first one is grammatically fine, but the suggestion also changes the meaning.

[crushspread @crushspread]

@Sam__Enright Regarding the one sec app for distractions, Instagram will force you to look at an ad for ~6 seconds if you don't have personalized ads enabled. Very effective to break the habit of mindless scrolling and reminds me to close the app

[crushspread @crushspread]

Some enterprising Chinese fertilizer exporters decided to utilize the rarely used HS Code for "Fertilizer, not elsewhere specified" and exported over half a million tons in April.

[crushspread @crushspread]

Rolling 24-hour rainfall map for China's wheat belt right before harvest. The crop was already planted late and now reports of sprouted wheat already in Hubei province at the southern end of the wheat belt.

[crushspread @crushspread]

I know this reductive, but based on photos, how do we think the US-China meeting will go?

[crushspread @crushspread]

Did a little Claude Code project last night and made a tool for looking at vegative health index data

[crushspread @crushspread]

@Brad_Setser China likes diversification of import sources. I would guess the government isn't exactly comfortable relying so heavily on Brazil. But US soy is an easy thing to tariff while Brazil keeps producing massive crops.

[crushspread @crushspread]

The purchase committments portion of the deal were unrealistic when they were announced, and I don't think it was China that was pushing for a $40 billion dollar headline. Additionally, there was a pandemic which hurt food demand.

[Brad Setser @Brad_Setser]

China loves these deals, as they create "hostages" that China can seize if the relationship goes sour --

(of course China never delivered on its "phase one commitments, and it squeezed 'beans hard over the last year)

1/3

[crushspread @crushspread]

@Brad_Setser Crush capacity is roughly equal between SOEs, intl companies, and private Chinese companies. The tariffs are definitely an issue for US soy.

But Brazil had a massive crop, prices were cheap. I don't see that as China squeezing the US

[crushspread @crushspread]

The Ministry of Agriculture tends to set its projections at ~95MMT, in line with Party goals of reducing soybean imports, and then has to adjust them up.

[crushspread @crushspread]

China's Ministry of Agriculture is forecasting 2026/27 imports at 95.5 million tons compared to USDA at 114 million tons, or a difference of 18.5 million tons