Cryptius

[Cryptius @crypti_us]

It's difficult to know what's going on in #Russia, but even if this is some strange psyop by the #FSB, the damage to #Putin's credibility (and by ext the state's) is a steep price to pay. Hard to believe this was included in the calculus and found to be acceptable.

[Cryptius @crypti_us]

@CanadianAntifa @wartranslated I definitely agree that Wagner's halt in its advance is super odd.

[Cryptius @crypti_us]

@CanadianAntifa @wartranslated I looked briefly for some OSINT on offensive operations but couldn't find anything reliable. If they did, and they didn't see the ruse, then I'd call that a failure of US/Ukrainian intelligence. Putin's compromised public image is a steep price to pay for a battlefield advantage

[Cryptius @crypti_us]

@CanadianAntifa @wartranslated I can't see that being the actual plan. It doesn't make any sense to negotiate a fictitious "settlement" before Ukraine has even committed their forces. Plus, Ukrainian and NATO intelligence can see right through any of these ruses with corroborating intel.

[Cryptius @crypti_us]

@TrulyMonica lol with what? THE POLICE??? Wagner is a 25k strong combat hardened unit. Literally nobody in the way has the experience, equipment, or fortitude to seriously challenge them.

[Cryptius @crypti_us]

@DennisGLynch1 @DigangiIrena @igorsushko Agreed 1000%. This changes absolutely everything on the battlefield. Especially if Wagner can hold Rostov.

[Cryptius @crypti_us]

@ConcernedPoster Support goes where the wind blows, though I highly doubt that Prigozhin would risk such a move without support already in place.

[Cryptius @crypti_us]

@DigangiIrena @DennisGLynch1 @igorsushko well we know of reported clashes outside Rostov and at least one downed Russian helicopter, so there isn't zero resistance. Even still, that distance doesn't square with physics. I seriously doubt this is in Voronezh

[Cryptius @crypti_us]

@DennisGLynch1 @igorsushko Even under ideal road conditions it's an 8 hour drive. Add the fact that their entire column is going to move at probably 20 mph and meet light resistance, there's no way they make that distance in less than 12 hours. I think it's been ~5 hours since Wagner crossed the border.

[Cryptius @crypti_us]

Say what you want about #Pregozhin, I certainly don't have nice things to say about him, but this is probably the most gangster shit I have ever seen in my life. #Moscow #RussiaIsCollapsing #RussianCivilWar #RussianCoup

[Cryptius @crypti_us]

@DodieClouse @OliLondonTV Yup. Looks like Wagner took the HQ without resistance or incident. From other footage and pics it looks like some Rosgvardia personnel where present, so they either let it happen or joined the column I guess.

[Cryptius @crypti_us]

@WarMonitors that's like halfway from Rostov to Moscow. That's a lot of distance to cover in a 50km column, even with little resistance. Is the location accurate?

[Cryptius @crypti_us]

@PeterZeihan without considering police, are there any formed RF units inside Western Russia that have the combat experience, size, and equipment to match Wagner?

[Cryptius @crypti_us]

@PeterZeihan I agree this looks like the result of a shape charge applied externally due to the relatively even cut around the circumference of the pipe. Other deformities could have been caused by pressure differentials post blast. I also doubt the practicality of placing a charge inside.

[Cryptius @crypti_us]

@Inkling61 @rej_dc @maxseddon Wagner is currently the largest and most effective fighting force inside Russian borders right now. All RF combat troops are currently engaged in Ukraine and can't break contact without risking a collapse of the front line. If all is as it seems the Kremlin has a lot to worry abt

[Cryptius @crypti_us]

@CryptoBoomNews it will only get bigger from here :)