Rubicon Satoshi

Bitcoin, jeeps and blue sky. I retweet the best #BTC threads and macro views on CT several times a week.

[Bill Ackman @BillAckman]

.@BernieSanders , it is a time to celebrate. @elonmusk has created enormous value for society by building @SpaceX, driving down the cost of rocket launches and creating a global satellite communication network that has brought high speed, low-cost internet and communication access to hundreds of millions and eventually billions of people along with critical advantages for our military and our nation’s defense.

SpaceX and its technologies will cause an acceleration in the growth of wages and wealth creation globally, including in some of the poorest communities in the U.S. and around the world.

Access to low-cost, high speed communications everywhere will allow children around the world to be educated, families to build businesses, and life-saving medical knowledge and care to be available everywhere.

SpaceX will materially bring down the cost of compute, advancing AI and humanity.

Meanwhile, 4,000 SpaceX employees yesterday became millionaires, including hourly wage employees who you claim you are trying to help.

The Elon Musks of the world drive growth, global GDP, and provide access to goods and services at lower cost that would otherwise not exist.

Elon’s nominal trillionaire status is due to his ownership of SpaceX, Tesla, Neuralink, the Boring Company and his other initiatives that have brought new technologies that improve our everyday lives.

Elon is not sitting on a trillion dollar pile of cash, jewelry and gold. He is using his controlling stakes in his companies to advance mankind. Elon’s companies don’t pay dividends. They reinvest all of their capital to accelerate innovation and value creation.

Elon is working 24/7 for all of us. He deserves respect and appreciation, not smears.

Bernie, your socialism would never allow a SpaceX to be built. Socialism has only proven to impoverish mankind and lead to death and destruction.

We need to create the conditions for more SpaceXs to be built, not attack the great entrepreneurs who are helping to advance our country.

[𝗰𝘆𝗰𝗹𝗼𝗽 @nobrainflip]

Stock market crash 1995 vs 2026

Same pattern:

1995: Huge overvalued Palm IPO -> Dot-Com Bubble crash

2026: Huge overvalued SpaceX IPO -> AI Bubble crash coming

Remember that I was first to warn you

[Benjamin Cowen @benjamincowen]

Probably a surge in price for #SPCX on launch (no pun intended)

Then a big pullback after the initial hype wears off, that likely finds a low near EOY aligning with the typical correction stocks get near the end of midterm years.

Long term bullish on SpaceX regardless of short term price action.

A lot of people have lost a lot of money betting against Elon Musk.

I think supporting companies that are changing the world for the better is a good thing.

[Strategy @Strategy]

In the depths of the 2022 crypto winter, our average cost basis was $30K while $BTC traded nearly 50% below it at $16K. What did we do? We bought more.

[Adam Livingston @AdamBLiv]

The Strategy/MSTR/STRC bears have had their brains officially cooked.

They are either bad actors or extremely stupid.

There isn't a third option.

Strategy has 845,256 Bitcoin valued at $52.4 billion.

They owe $142 million per month in dividends.

Now let's scale the balance sheet down 1,000,000x to show you how stupid these people are.

$52,400 of Bitcoin

$142/month dividend bill

0.845256 BTC

That means the monthly dividend bill is:

$142 ÷ $52,400 = 0.271% per month

Annualized:

$1,704/year ÷ $52,400 = 3.25% per year

So the bear argument becomes:

“This person owns $52,400 of Bitcoin and owes $142 per month. They are doomed.”

That is hilarious.

[Chris Millas @ChrisMMillas]

If you’re an $MSTR bull, you effectively believe Bitcoin’s ARR *will* exceed Strategy’s cost of capital over time.

If you’re an $MSTR bear, you effectively believe Bitcoin’s ARR *won’t* exceed Strategy’s cost of capital over time.

It really is that simple.

Both are legitimate stances since no-one knows with certainty what the future holds.

All these other arguments that people manufacture and mental gymnastics they engage in is noise.

[nicolas, 30 ans @nic_carter]

here are some facts about California. some of this is hard to believe.

first of all, it's important to understand the concept of "ballot harvesting," which is perfectly legal in CA. this refers to a situation where someone completely unaffiliated with the voter can collect and submit their ballot for them.

this flow is completely legal:

- a homeless person arrives in LA, where they are eligible for cash assistance, SSI, food stamps, healthcare through medical, and an array of other taxpayer-funded services
- they are registered to vote by an NGO (many such NGOs exist and explicitly do this).
- they do not have to provide a residential address or any proof of residency to vote. they only have to provide a mailing address, which can be anywhere (church, NGO HQ, homeless shelter). their home address can be "a park" or "an underpass".
- their ballot is mailed to the homeless shelter (or whatever address the NGO elects for them)
- the only verification done for the mail-in ballot is "signature verification" and uniqueness (only one vote per person is counted theoretically).
- the signature can be an X. if they register with an X, they can sign with an X. that is sufficient to pass verification. signature verification is also deliberately loose. the signature does not have to be a perfect match.

now consider the hypothetical scenario, which is fraudulent, but virtually impossible to detect:

- a homeless person cycles through the LA system. they get registered with their mailing address listed as the NGO HQ or homeless shelter
- they "sign" their registration with an X or nondescript, easily replicable signature
- they disappear. never seen again. or they exist, but it doesn't matter. they don't get purged from the voter rolls for 4-8 years typically.
- the address where they registered receives their ballot for several cycles
- operatives are aware that they have X amount of votes to make up. they fill in X many thousand mail-in ballots themselves. the ballots are manually postmarked (permitted). they forge the signature to match whatever signature (could be an X) was submitted upon registration
- ballots can be accepted even if they are postmarked at 11.59 pm. polls closed at 8 pm. (you would need an accomplice who is a USPS employee)
- the only fraud checks are de-duplication (if the homeless person through some miracle voted in person, only one of their ballots would be counted) and signature verification
- because very few of the homeless people in question would have voted in person, this gives NGO operatives tens of thousands of possible mail-in ballots to submit unilaterally.

the big problem is that there is NO way to detect this type of fraud. NGOs that register homeless people to vote exist. that isn't a secret. ballot harvesting is fully legal. voting by mail is encouraged. signature verification is as loose as possible. de-duplication doesn't solve anything, since few homeless people vote in person. and no one in power locally is going to spend political capital on rooting out such fraud, since they are all wholeheartedly committed to "voting rights".

in a situation where fraud is undetectable, the absence of hard proof of fraud is not evidence that no fraud exists.

Raman has gained around 20k votes since election night. She is around 3k votes ahead of Pratt now.

there are over 72 thousand homeless people in LA county.

[Parker @TheOtherParker_]

So wtf happened, why did $STRC depeg?!

It's a small flaw in the design that has been halfway fixed and completely fixed by $SATA.

STRC pays dividends once a month. You only need to hold STRC one day of the month to get the dividend though, so there's the other ~20 trading days where it's just "a regular stock".

Importantly, it's a regular stock that is VERY cheap to short with HUGE amounts of borrow available.

No rational trader will hold a long term short on STRC, because they would owe the 11.5% dividend yield each month if held through the record date; however, as long as you close your short out before the record date, then your cost is zero. Furthermore, traders KNOW that Strategy won't let STRC trade above $100, so if you open a short at $100, your risk is completely capped. In fact, it's basically a risk free trade if you short at $100 and cover the short (close out the trade) before the record date.

On the other side of things, we know that people use leverage to buy more STRC, effectively looping. This is mostly done in brokerage accounts, not DeFi as many think. The sizes is TradFi DWARF what happens in DeFi.

So, you have a powder keg here. People levering long on STRC to capture double digit yields, but shorts having a free lunch to short and see if they can margin call some of these longs, as long as they cover before the record date.

If you think what happened last week was completely orderly and not manipulated at all, you're silly. Some big traders pushed the price of STRC to try to shake out the lettuce hands and margin call the loopers.

So, how do we fix this? Well, $SATA completely fixed it by switching to daily dividends, because now the shorts have a very real cost to short. It doesn't mean they won't, but there's no more free lunch. STRC made it a lot better by switching to bi-monthly, but didn't completely fix the problem. Hopefully they switch to daily very soon.

Going forward, @apyx_fi will be holding more $SATA once the daily dividends kick in to help reduce volatility. $STRC will still be the lionshare of the reserve, but $SATA has earned its place.

[Michael Saylor @saylor]

$STRC and $MSTR shareholders have approved the amendment to move $STRC dividends from monthly to semi-monthly. Under the new cadence, the first record date is June 30 and the first payment date is July 15. Thank you to every shareholder who voted. https://t.co/3sIqqF3FCR

[James Lavish @jameslavish]

Good morning.

Some friendly advice for the perma Bit-doomers: Stop declaring Bitcoin "dead". It is not dead. It is not dying. It is an asset experiencing normal bouts of high volatility during its adoption and maturation phase.

Have a great day.

[Michael Saylor @saylor]

Strategy has acquired 1,550 BTC for $101 million to increase our $BTC Reserve to ₿845,256. We have also increased our USD Reserve by $100 million to $1.0 billion. $MSTR $STRC https://t.co/1Zf1AVsP1H

[Benjamin Cowen @benjamincowen]

I love the cadence of this chart

Bitcoin % of Supply in Profit/Loss

As I said previously, you start looking for major market cycle bottoms *after* they cross, not before.

They just crossed.

Such a great chart for keeping people on the right side of the market in midterm years

[THE BITCOIN PHARAOH @thebtcpharaoh]

Confessions of a Haunted Bitcoiner

Nobody warns you about the part that actually gets to you. It isn’t the volatility. It’s the loneliness of the volatility. I can stomach watching half the number evaporate — a 50% drawdown isn’t a crash, it’s a sale on the scarcest monetary asset humanity has ever invented. What I can’t stomach is sitting in a Bavarian lakeside town this summer, the water so still it looks photoshopped (no, I’m not German, I just enjoy the cooler weather) — while my brother-in-law explains to me, slowly, like I’m a golden retriever, that bitcoin “isn’t backed by anything.” This, while he carries a currency backed by the feelings of a committee that meets eight times a year and has never once been early.

Because I’ve done the work. Thousands of hours, between podcasts, books, articles etc. And then you’re stuck. You sit across from people you genuinely love, who built businesses or went to top universities, but you still can't hand them the one thing you’re surest of in this life. You watch the words leave your mouth and die in the air. “Inflation is policy.” Nothing. You’ve said something profound to a man squinting at the bill to see if service is included.

So you stop. Not because you stopped believing — because you’ve learned, at real cost, that conviction and evangelism are different muscles, and the second one only ever cost me. The early bitcoiner’s true discipline was never holding through an 80% crash. It’s holding your tongue at brunch while someone calls your life’s thesis a Ponzi between bites of a croissant they bought with money engineered to be worth less by the time they finish it.

And here’s the confession underneath the confession — the haunting part. A small, ugly corner of me wants the price to keep bleeding. Not for me. For the vindication. So they’ll finally see. And I despise that corner, because I already know the ending: the converts arrive years late, exhausted, having “figured it out themselves,” and I’ll have to swallow the most expensive three words in the English language — I told you — smile, and pour the wine. Because being right early and being right late feel exactly the same from the inside. The only difference is who got paid, and whether you stayed someone people still wanted at the table.

That’s the trap nobody mentions. It’s lonely being the only one who sees the iceberg. But you can’t save the ship by screaming “ICEBERG” louder — you just become the iceberg guy, and now you’re not even right anymore, you’re exhausting, and exhausted.

So you make a quieter peace with it. The math doesn’t need their approval. 21 million is 21 million whether anyone claps, whether your brother-in-law ever comes around, whether the number is at 60K or 600K this particular haunted Sunday.

But here’s the part I didn’t expect. You spend years being the only one at every dinner table — and then you find the others. Not at the table. But here on X. It turns out the whole time I was losing the argument at brunch, there was a deck full of people on the other side of this screen squinting at the same iceberg, doing the same math, biting the same tongue at their own family dinners. We’re not an echo chamber — an echo chamber agrees on conclusions. We argue about everything: cycle tops, treasury structures, whether Saylor’s a prophet or a margin call away from his next podcast appearance. What we share isn’t an answer. It’s the humility to question everything we once knew, and the foresight.

I used to think being early meant being alone. It just meant being early to the wrong room. This is the right one.

Now let's ride this bear to zero or a million 😎

#Bitcoin $MSTR $MPJPY $MTPLF

[Kabuki🔴 @kabukistory]

Bitcoin is now hovering at the exact level where EVERY bull trap ends.

Next week, another bearish rejection will send $BTC back to ~$53,000.

$60K → $53K → $47K → $87K → $151K

Next stops:
→ $53K next week
→ $47K by July
→ $151K by January

I called the recent Bitcoin dump publicly, $126k top in October 2025, and even $15k bottom in November 2022.

If you missed those calls, don't worry. I'll call the next one too.

Follow now. I'll call every major move.

[Benjamin Cowen @benjamincowen]

@PeterSchiff If you think that’s cult-like behavior, would you agree that being bearish from $0 to $126,000 over more than 10 years and saying you were right every 4 years would also be cult-like behavior?

[Fred Krueger @dotkrueger]

Saylor won't go bankrupt.
The dividend will continue to be paid.

If he has to raise the coupon to 15% to get to par,
he will raise to 15%.

And in the unlikely scenario he can't,
he will either sell BTC or more shares of MSTR.

And in the even more unlikely scenario that fails,
he will just suspend the dividend and wait.

There is no liquidition scenario.

[Michael Saylor @saylor]

The AI buildout is absorbing capital at historic scale, creating temporary pressure across global markets. That does not weaken Bitcoin. It strengthens the case for scarce, liquid, digital capital. Bitcoin remains the premier asset for the long term. $BTC

[Benjamin Cowen @benjamincowen]

@PeterSchiff I am just waiting for your "Don't make the mistake" tweet. Then we will know the low is in.

[Bitcoin Archive @BitcoinArchive]

JUST IN: Bitcoin falls below the 200-Week Moving Average for the first time since June, 2022 –– exactly 4 years later.

[Michael Saylor @saylor]

@jimcramer It’s just a flesh wound, Jim.