Rubicon Satoshi

Bitcoin, jeeps and blue sky. I retweet the best #BTC threads and macro views on CT several times a week.

[Red Baron Pizza @redbaronpizza]

He’s still here. He’s got a fan club.
Including us.

[Tim Draper @TimDraper]

I’ve said it before and I’ll say it again. It’s irresponsible to not own bitcoin.

First, companies will say, “We accept bitcoin.”

Then, they’ll say, “We only accept bitcoin.”

Then people will not value dollars or fiat, and there will be a run on the banks.

Eventually, the world will never be the same.

The individuals and companies that are ready for the seismic shift will come out ahead.

Those that are left holding legacy currency will not.

[Handre @Handre]

Socialism is a machine for consuming capital while pretending to create it.

Every socialist program starts the same way: a politician identifies something people want, promises to deliver it without a visible price tag, and taxes or prints the money to fund it. Venezuela had this down to an art form by 2015. Price controls on food, nationalized oil revenues redistributed as subsidies, Maduro declaring the supermarket shelves would stay full. By 2017, Venezuelans lost an average of 11 kilograms of body weight from hunger. The machine ate the capital, then ate the people.

Prices carry information. When a government fixes the price of bread below market, bakers stop baking. When it taxes productive capital to fund consumption, the capital stock shrinks. Ludwig von Mises called this the calculation problem: without genuine price signals, central planners are flying blind, allocating resources based on political pressure rather than actual scarcity. Chronic shortage sits underneath their rhetoric of abundance.

Rent is higher because zoning boards and rent stabilization laws choked off housing supply in cities like San Francisco for decades. Your healthcare costs more because Medicare and Medicaid inflate demand while regulatory capture insulates hospitals from competition. Specific politicians passed specific laws that produced specific shortages, then campaigned for re-election by blaming the market.

Voting for a slightly less interventionist candidate while holding your savings in dollars is rearranging furniture on a sinking ship. Hard assets held outside the banking system, particularly bitcoin, gold, property, and stocks, remove your stored labor from the reach of the printing press. This is a basic act of self-preservation in a system designed to extract your productivity under the guise of compassion.

Stop waiting for permission to opt out.

[Jared Lederman @jared_lederman1]

@DrJMarine Ane he's teaching students quite "out-there" forms of sexual education: https://t.co/YvLt0xN6Q7

[amit @amitisinvesting]

A TON OF THINGS HAPPENED IN THE STOCK MARKET TODAY.

Here's a full recap:

1. The U.S. reportedly offered Iran a deal to halt the siege and lift sanctions in exchange for reopening the Strait of Hormuz and ending proxy attacks, according to Al Arabiya. Axios also reports that Rubio told several foreign counterparts the U.S. does not plan new strikes on Iran for now, with pressure shifting toward the naval blockade and new sanctions campaign instead. Crude Oil fell 4% and the 10-year treasury bond fell from 4.72% to 4.62%.

2. Global physical gold-backed ETFs $GLD attracted $6.4B of inflows last week, their largest weekly intake since January and the 3rd-largest weekly inflow on record. North America led with $4.4B, followed by Europe at $1.7B and Asia at $300M. This marked the 7th straight week of inflows, with global gold ETFs pulling in $16.4B over that stretch. Total AUM in global gold ETFs rose by $33B last week to $615B, the highest level since the second week of May.

3. Intuit $INTU reported Q4’26 revenue of $4.4B, beating estimates of $4.27B and up 14% YoY. Adjusted EPS came in at $4.03 versus $3.58 expected. Global Business Solutions revenue rose 14% YoY to $3.4B, the Online Ecosystem grew 17% YoY to $2.6B, Consumer revenue increased 14% YoY to $930M, and Credit Karma revenue rose 16% YoY to $743M. For FY27, Intuit guided revenue to $23.3B–$23.5B versus $23.72B expected, while adjusted EPS guidance of $22.88–$23.12 came in well below the $27.32 estimate. The company also raised its dividend 15% YoY to $1.38/share, bought back $5.5B of stock, and has $7.9B remaining on its authorization. Management said its strategy is to win as an AI-driven expert platform while staying disciplined on investments and scaling its big bets.

4. President Trump said the U.S. Navy has removed and/or detonated all mines from international waters in the Strait of Hormuz. He said Iran has been notified that any ship or boat placing new mines will be “immediately and systematically destroyed.” Trump added that Space Force is monitoring every square inch of the Strait, along with Pickaxe Mountain and the three previously destroyed nuclear sites, and said a “Zero Tolerance” policy on mine placement is now in full effect.

5. Canada is responding to U.S. tariffs with new tariffs of its own. The country is raising steel tariffs to 50% from 25%, while roughly 700 products will face new tariff rates of 15%, 25%, and 50%. The measures are set to take effect on September 8, marking another escalation in the U.S.–Canada trade dispute.

6. Anthropic is expected to tell IPO investors its total addressable market exceeds $30T, topping SpaceX’s $28.5T estimate, according to WSJ. The figure represents the potential value of work Anthropic believes AI models could eventually perform, not a direct revenue forecast. Anthropic generated $11.6B in Q2 revenue and could seek to raise as much as $100B at roughly a $2T valuation. IPO documents are expected within weeks, potentially setting up a September or early October listing.

7. OpenAI’s data-center head Chris Malone left the company last week, according to WSJ. Malone joined in March 2025 shortly after Stargate was announced and played a key role overseeing OpenAI’s massive data-center buildout. He previously led data-center strategy at Meta and earlier worked on data-center technology at Google. The departure comes just weeks after OpenAI also replaced its chief revenue officer, adding another senior leadership change as the company races to scale infrastructure, revenue, and compute capacity.

8. ClickHouse has surpassed $350M in annual recurring revenue, up 40% since May, as AI agents drive demand for database and observability infrastructure. OpenAI’s usage has reportedly grown roughly 10x over the past year to more than 30 petabytes of data per day, or around 30T events daily. OpenAI has also shifted parts of its log-management workload from Datadog to ClickHouse over the past year. ClickHouse was valued at $15B in January and says gross margins currently range from 50%–70%. Earlier this year, the company acquired Langfuse to expand deeper into monitoring AI applications and agents. Nebius $NBIS owned a 28% stake in ClickHouse as of May 2025, though that stake has likely been diluted by subsequent fundraising.

9. JPMorgan reiterated its Overweight rating on SpaceX $SPCX with a $240 price target, saying the company’s AI ambitions are coming into sharper focus and that it is increasingly positive on Grok. The firm highlighted SpaceX’s completed acquisition of Cursor on 8/14 as an important step in building enterprise AI capabilities. Cursor brings roughly $4B of ARR as of June 2026, with about 75% coming from businesses, which JPMorgan says should help streamline go-to-market and provide valuable model-training data. The firm also said Cursor data is already showing up in Grok’s supplemental training, with tangible improvements in recent model performance.

10. OpenAI says its new Broadcom-built Jalapeno AI chip outperformed Nvidia $NVDA GB300 in both throughput per watt and response latency during internal testing, according to Bloomberg. The chip is built specifically for inference, not training, and runs at roughly 700 watts. OpenAI plans to begin deploying Jalapeno for its models later this year, saying the performance gap widened on larger workloads, including Moonshot’s Kimi model, and that the chip has also performed well on unreleased OpenAI models. The key caveat is that Jalapeno was tested against GB300, not Nvidia’s newer Vera Rubin generation. OpenAI says a second-generation chip is already nearing tape-out, while work on a third generation has begun.

11. The top 10 most active options today by contracts traded were $NVDA with 1.8M contracts, $TSLA with 1.8M contracts, $AAPL with 636K contracts, $SPCX with 548K contracts, $INTC with 540K contracts, $AMZN with 498K contracts, $MU with 483K contracts, $AMD with 403K contracts, $PLTR with 361K contracts, and $SOFI with 359K contracts.

12. Raymond James raised its Nvidia $NVDA price target to $352 from $330 and reiterated a Strong Buy rating. The firm says Nvidia’s CPU opportunity is becoming more important, especially for agentic AI workloads, even though CPUs are only about 3% of sales today. Raymond James expects CPU revenue to reach roughly 5% of total revenue by CY28 and believes Nvidia could potentially become the world leader in CPU revenue within several years. The firm also argued the stock remains inexpensive, trading at less than 15x CY27 GAAP earnings, below the S&P 500 at 18.6x, despite sales and net income growth still expected to exceed 20% in CY28. Its new $352 target is based on a 22x multiple on CY28 estimates, which Raymond James views as conservative given Nvidia’s leadership, CUDA moat, GPU performance, free cash flow, and history of trading at much higher multiples.

WALL STREET IS THE GREATEST SHOW ON EARTH.

[Dolly Parton @DollyParton]

A message from the family of Dolly Parton.

[Jordi Visser @jvisserlabs]

Last week BTC had its largest weekly sigma move in the last decade while breaking above the 200 day moving average. On August 21st, the 200 day moving average slope turned positive for the first time in 279 days. Here are all the times in BTC history where the 200 day slope was negative for more than 100 days and the forward returns once it turned positive. In all cases, the low made during that decline window was never broken.

[Why @MrWhyBTC]

Everyone spent six months watching ETF flows. The record seller of 2026 was somewhere else. https://t.co/umNxC5zRh5

[Bill Ackman @BillAckman]

At midnight on February 6th, earlier this year, the doorbell to our apartment rang. The doorbell was followed by a pounding on the door. I answered the door and a security person in our building handed me his phone. It was my oldest daughter Eloise. She had found my 26-year-old daughter unconscious on the floor of her apartment and had called 911. The EMT team was already there, but they did not know what was wrong with Lucy or to which hospital they would take her.

I threw on some clothes and jumped in an Uber heading east toward Brooklyn. (Lucy lived alone in Williamsburg.) On the way, I learned that they were taking her to Elmhurst, a City trauma hospital in Queens. I arrived about five minutes after the ambulance to join Eloise, Lucy’s mom, and a friend, and waited to learn what was wrong.

After about 15 minutes, I asked a nurse where she was. I looked over his shoulder to his computer. Next to her name, it said “non-responsive.” I walked into the emergency room and wandered around looking for her until I found her unconscious on a gurney surrounded by several doctors and nurses.

By about 2:30am with the results from a CAT scan, Lucy’s doctors had determined that she had a massive brain hemorrhage and would need an emergency hemicraniectomy to release the pressure on her brain and remove the blood from the hemorrhage. I called our wonderful friend and family doctor Eddie Fisher and explained what was going on. He woke up Josh Bederson, Chairman of Neurosurgery at Mount Sinai, to find out more about Zach Hickman, the neurosurgeon on call that night. Dr. Bederson said Hickman was an excellent surgeon, which was comforting as we had no choice.

The surgery to save Lucy’s life began around 3:15am and finished around 5:30am. It was successful.

The following day, I joined Lucy in an ambulance while she was being transferred to Mount Sinai on Madison Avenue. Later that day, we determined from Lucy’s Oura ring that her hemorrhage had occurred around 9am, which meant that more than 19 hours had passed from the time of the hemorrhage to the completion of the surgery to release the pressure on her brain (I only wish @ouraring had an alert for this kind of a medical event. Imagine it could call a family member if the wearer doesn’t cancel the alert).

I later learned that the standard of care is not to do surgery to save a patient with a large brain bleed if more than five hours have passed since the hemorrhage. Even when the surgery is done, I was told that the likely outcome for the patient is a few months in a nursing home and death from pneumonia.

When I met Lucy’s doctors, I did my best to inspire them: “Let’s see what can be accomplished if we give her the best care possible and we invest unlimited resources to restore her to life.” And I promised that whatever we learned we would make available to everyone.

Dr. Chris Kellner, her neurosurgeon, and Dr. David Putrino, Director of Rehabilitation Innovation for the Mount Sinai Health System have led Lucy’s care team since that day. Words cannot describe the remarkable and compassionate care that she has received beginning with the EMT team and then from nurses, doctors, therapists, and the army of people who have worked to save her and return her to life. To this day, we have a daily Zoom where we discuss her progress and make adjustments to her care. While her care and oversight have been incredible, the learnings for the Mount Sinai team have also been elucidating and will assist in the care of many others.

Lucy began in a bad place. She was in a coma for several weeks and then awoke not being able to breathe on her own, unable to walk, see or speak.

Over the last six months, she has recovered her cognition – she understands everything including her circumstance – is able to walk a hundred or more steps at a time with assistance, is making progress with sounds, vowels and consonants and the beginnings of speech, but she remains unable to see.

Each day, she makes a little progress, and daily progress compounds. Every day I tell her that she just needs to make a little progress and it won’t be long before she is back.

We remain optimistic that Lucy will return to normal function. It will likely take years, but I believe it is only a matter of time, hard work, and technological progress, along with some, and perhaps a lot, of divine intervention.

Many people have been praying for Lucy and we are incredibly grateful for the prayers and remarkable support she has received. Lucy’s friends have been with her every day since the beginning, and their presence and friendship have saved her life and helped to rebuild and maintain her spirit. And on a very positive note, Lucy’s challenge has brought together our entire modern family who have all been incredibly devoted to her care and recovery.

Lucy's vision and other faculties may require some form of brain computer interface, work that is underway at Neuralink, Precision Neuroscience, Science, Synchron, Nudge, and other companies in the space.

If you are going to have a devastating brain injury, now is the best time in history for that to happen. We are living in a world when you can be confident that the blind will soon see again. We are going to do everything we can to help make that happen, including by assisting existing companies in the space.

With respect to our promise to make Lucy’s care available to others, we have made good progress. In May, a real estate colleague made me aware of a 93% vacant, brand new, 400,000 square foot Class A+ purpose-built biotech facility on West End Avenue between 65th and 66th Streets that missed the market and was available for sale. The Pershing Square Foundation acquired the building 60 days later.

We also put under contract an adjoining 130,000 square foot building at 320 West 66th Street that is currently being used by Saturday Night Live for studio space. The building has 35-foot ceilings with massive column-free spaces that can be converted into superb rehabilitation facilities. We will close on the SNL building in December.

We are also acquiring an adjoining vacant lot with additional air rights. With just the existing zoning rights, we can add a 150,000 square feet for a total of 680,000 square feet, a lab footprint larger than Rockefeller University, and that’s without including the potential for an upzoning that would allow for substantially more buildable area on the site’s 3.4 acres with spectacular views of the Hudson.

Our goal is to build the world’s greatest brain research, rehabilitation, recovery, human optimization, and longevity institute. We have named it The Ackman Oxman Institute or the AOI for lack of a better name, but also to reinforce the point that Neri and I and our family are all-in on the mission.

The AOI will be patient-centric. It will not be an academic research institute that produces lots of papers, a Nobel Prize winner or two, but little if any results for patients. We will be laser-focused on cures, treatments, devices, rehabilitation and exercise equipment, and targeted and basic research with a goal of massively accelerating the time from idea to innovation to production to helping a patient.

While the AOI will be a non-profit, it will have highly commercial instincts. The AOI will have its own venture funding and will work to develop innovations to create companies that we will seed, assist, and spinout to ensure technologies, treatments, techniques, and drugs get to patients as promptly as possible.

On one 3.4 acre campus in what is still the greatest city in the world, we will do neurosurgery, neuroscience, rehabilitation, nutrition, BCI and device development, human trials, hyperbaric oxygen treatments, and life extension programs, and we will mandate and incentivize collaboration among the teams with no silos, politics, bureaucracy, or any other constraint that is inconsistent with the mission.

Mount Sinai will be an important partner and deservedly so, but it won’t be our only hospital or medical school partner as we don’t believe any institution has a monopoly on the best ideas or the best talent. We don’t believe in exclusive relationships because that is not in the best interest of patients.

Five years ago, we considered launching a brain institute inspired by Neri’s mom who sadly died from Alzheimer’s. We couldn’t make the math work as the real estate was too expensive and we believed it would be too difficult to recruit the best talent from universities to our effort.

Since then, the real estate became available at a 70% discount, universities became a much less attractive place to work due to politics outweighing meritocracy, protests that disrupt learning, the curse of antisemitism, and a decline in funding. Fortunately, during the same time, I made sufficient personal economic progress to make the AOI possible.

The advance of AI in the last few years will also enable us to greatly accelerate our mission. AI still has a lot to learn about human intelligence and the brain, and the AOI should be at the forefront of the interplay between the brain and AI.

Today, I am making a public filing disclosing a gift from Neri and me of ~$400 million or 10,000,000 shares of Pershing Square Inc. (PS) to the AOI. It is very early days for Pershing Square so these shares are intended to anchor the long-term work of the AOI as the shares compound over time while generating what we expect will be a growing stream of quarterly dividends to fund the Institute.

We will also be announcing an additional gift of similar and potentially greater size which won’t be in the form of Pershing Square stock to provide the AOI with the short- and intermediate-term runway necessary to enable it to achieve its goal of becoming a self-sustaining institute, which reinvests all of its revenues, royalties, and the economic rewards of company formation to advance the fields of brain health and human longevity.

Neri and I have chosen to anchor the funding of the AOI to maintain vision alignment and limit the need for the organization to focus on fundraising. We expect the AOI to be the best-resourced brain, rehab, recovery, and longevity institute in the world.

We are grateful to have been able to form a board which includes Dean Kamen (our generation’s Thomas Edison), George Yancopoulus (CEO of Regeneron), James Rothman (Nobel Laureate), Bernardo Sabatini (neuroscientist), Chris Kellner (neurosurgeon), Olivia Flatto (CEO Pershing Square Foundation), Neri Oxman, and myself.

We have recently identified a CEO who we expect to announce by October along with other key hires, and are beginning searches for a Chief Scientific Officer, a Chief AI/Technology Officer, a Chief Operating Officer, a Chief Financial Officer, and other key leadership roles.

If you find what we are building compelling and want to be part of the leadership team that creates and builds the AOI from a standing start, please send an email to: [email protected] with a short note as to why you believe you can help. Please include your best three ideas for the AOI along with a summary of your background and your most important accomplishments.

We promise strict confidentiality to those expressing interest in working with us.

We have learned from Lucy that the brain can recover from even catastrophic injury. There is so much more work to be done as the mind is a terrible thing to waste.

For details from my Pershing Square SEC filing see:

https://t.co/gZKafCw6Ia

[Rubicon Satoshi @crypticjeeper]

@Alan_Covington @ClayTravis That “fake” outlet made Clay $100 million when he sold it https://t.co/zvakj1iH25

[Atlas Phoenix BTC @AtlasPhoenixBTC]

Re: Cold Card Hack

Hello fellow Bitcoiners,

It’s been nearly one week since my wallet was drained.

I lost my entire bitcoin stack, presumably the most in the entire attack - an amount I’m more than embarrassed and ashamed to even admit publicly. This was not only my life savings but my time, energy, hardcore conviction and identity after 13 years in this space.

I am posting pseudonymously as I’ve always preferred to stay out of the spotlight - and privacy (inspired by Satoshi) is something I value. I debated whether or not I should say anything at all, but after much deliberation I decided it may be beneficial for other victims who are struggling.

While this incident certainly forced upon me the darkest days of my life so far - I have now accepted it and will slowly put together my life again. I came from nothing and did everything right (except rolling the damn dice apparently 😅). I stayed away from trading, exchanges, shitcoins, ICOs, NFTs, false prophets, etc and quietly and consistently built up over the years through all the ups and downs - never spending frivolously on material goods but instead using bitcoin as my sense of freedom and security - with the hopes to pass it on to my future children.

Even though that peace, freedom and security is now gone - I am beyond grateful for the journey and life that bitcoin enabled me to have.

To all the other victims, as cliche as it is to say “it’s only money” - true wealth, as I’ve learned over and over again is in health, family, and friendships. I’d be lying if I told you I’m not afraid of the uncertainty ahead, but I know by taking one step at a time it will be possible to rebuild. Trust me if I can come to these realizations, you can too! The hardest challenges in life make us stronger and turn us into the best versions of ourselves - don’t give in to the hopelessness. By being in this community you are apart of something special that the majority of the world still hasn’t realized yet. It’s still early!

Thanks to all the wonderful people in the community I’ve been DMing over the past week - your kind words of support mean the world to me and helped me start to believe in myself again.

To the hacker: you still can do the right thing here and come clean - you have prompted a serious wake-up call that has brought the community together which will bring more resilience for the future. Doing the noble thing now will prevent a lifelong hunt.

To all the amazing bitcoiners who have jumped to action from the very beginning to support each other and mitigate further damage - it’s been a beautiful thing to watch.

To the @blocks team and especially @intangiblecoins, your efforts are inspiring and provide me with hope. Believe me when I say that IF I ever get my coins back you will all be taken care of very well, along with massive donations to the open source community.

For now I will withhold any judgement towards @nvk and the @Coinkite team - while I’m still processing this loss and dealing with the gravity of building my life up from the ruins - I have 0 anger or resentment. Bitcoin security is a tough job, mistakes are made, and lessons are learned by all. I made mistakes by trusting and not verifying as well as not having a more robust security solution so the responsibility must be shared, hindsight is 20/20 and even though it’s tough: I’m okay admitting that. Bitcoin humbles all.

Having said all that… I’M NOT FUCKING LEAVING!!! I will start building a new stack from the ground up like all the other plebs as my conviction in Bitcoin is even stronger today then when I got my first coins in 2013.

This was never about the money - it was always about the revolution, and that can’t be stopped. We will win.

Let’s keep our heads high.
The march continues.
It’s time to rebuild.

PS: Thanks for everything Satoshi ❤️

-M

[Benjamin Cowen @benjamincowen]

I don’t comment on the news very often, but it’s devastating to see so many people lose so much Bitcoin while doing what they believed was the right thing.

People wonder why retail participation has been fading for years, yet the space continues to be dominated by scam memecoins, presidential rug pulls, and recurring security failures.

The crypto asset class still has a long way to go before it earns durable mainstream trust.

[Willy Woo @willywoo]

Sobering numbers

1.57M BTC lost via self custody
1.51M BTC lost on exchanges

[The ₿itcoin Therapist @TheBTCTherapist]

Imagine buying bitcoin at $69,420, holding through the FTX, Celsius, BlockFi, Voyager bankruptcies and surviving a -75% drawdown, holding for 4 more years, waiting until $126,000, deciding not to sell, then riding Bitcoin down to $58,000 and losing your bitcoin overnight because one singular dude couldn’t do the most important part of his job: generate a random fucking number. Insane.

[Peter McCormack 🏴‍☠️🇬🇧🇮🇪 @PeterMcCormack]

Bitcoin will never scale if:
1. Everyone is meant to verify code
2. Everyone is meant to run a node
3. Everyone is meant to know what an XPub is

I've said this all the time - maxis scream at me, I am still right, they are still wrong. They are out of touch with normal people.

I know some of you are like, well I did it, don't trust verify - well done nerd, but you are a tiny tiny minority.

Sure there will be a hardcore group who will do all this, the nerds that keep the system honest.

Normal people will keep on exchanges, use ETFs, sometimes single sig.

If you get someone to multi-sig, well done, it will be rare, but well done. Many will just trust well structured institutional products.

Cry as much as you like, I was right before and I am still right.

[Sky @skysupersonic]

Dear COLDCARD attackers,

Congratulations. You successfully found a bug, exploited, and have collectively gathered around 1,500 bitcoin.

Now you are sitting on one of the most blacklisted coin stacks in history. It will be nearly impossible for you to exchange for currency or deal with any institution. Every move you make will be highly scrutinized and tracked. Presumably for the rest of your lives, you will be looking over your shoulder.

I suggest you plea with CoinKite to return all stolen funds in return for an audit fee of 5% of the loot. This way your work is rewarded and you are able to enjoy the fruits of your labor.

Respectfully,
hodlers worldwide

[Michael Saylor @saylor]

https://t.co/wmUErVBFOo

[David Bailey🇵🇷 $2.0mm/btc is the floor @DavidFBailey]

Khing is the best distress credit investor in our industry and he keeping pumping out banger after banger. Follow @khingoei

[Michael Saylor @saylor]

Strategy has increased its USD Reserve by $450 million. As of 7/12/2026, we hodl ₿843,775 in our BTC Reserves and $3.0 billion in our USD Reserves. $MSTR $STRC https://t.co/OdFbjLuCTP

[Adam Livingston @AdamBLiv]

Strategy sells 3,588 Bitcoin.

Bitcoin goes up 5%.

STRC goes above $90.

Market = INOCULATED.