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Hey everyone, I think you've all seen the oil prices by now and the news that Trump signed a peace deal with Iran.
Honestly, this caught me by surprise. I expected the situation to drag on much longer, but hold on - I've got a few thoughts on this.
What do we know from the news?
1. #Trump conveniently timed the positive Iran news around his birthday and even hosted a UFC event at home :))
2. The deal was reportedly made behind Israel's back, meaning it was signed without Israel being involved.
3. The United States is currently the world's largest crude oil producer.
Now think about it: was signing a peace deal actually beneficial?
Let's take a closer look. While the conflict with Iran continues, the U.S. can sell oil at higher prices because the Strait of Hormuz is disrupted. At the same time, American soldiers aren't dying in large numbers because there is no ground operation. Once again, Trump managed to wrap everything around his birthday, which makes me think part of it was about boosting his own image.
In reality, even though Hormuz is open right now, I think it's only temporary and we'll eventually see the conflict escalate again. There's simply too much money involved. On top of that, no troops are being withdrawn, and the tensions between Israel and Iran haven't disappeared. Another important factor is that while America was selling expensive oil, China was still buying it, and oil remains critical for China's economy.
Now let's look at the crypto market.
We dropped to 60000, and many people probably consider that the bottom. But if you look at the chart, there's still plenty of room to fall.
So far, bitcoin:native hasn't shown signs of a major capitulation event. The losses across different market participants are still relatively moderate compared to previous bear market bottoms.
That suggests the market hasn't gone through a full pain cycle yet.
Right now, this is how I see things: we're moving sideways, but there's still potential for a push toward 70000 – 75000 to squeeze out short sellers.
I'll be opening a short position at @liquidtrading around these levels.
After that, I expect the market to come under heavy selling pressure, and there are plenty of possible triggers:
1. Geopolitics.
2. #AI bubble.
3. An overheated stock market.
Sooner or later, I think the trap will close, and that's when we could see a move down toward the 50000 – 40000 range.
Pengu Card Reward
If you use the Pengu Card, your everyday purchases earn you a free digital collectible. All money spent before the start of this campaign has already been counted toward your reward.
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The system automatically calculates your total card spending, subtracting any refunded purchases, and assigns you to one of three reward tiers:
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- Gold: Total spending of $1,000 or more.
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@KASTxyz@pudgypenguins
KAST Launches 10% Cashback Program on Digital Advertising Spend
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⟡ Weekly Top 3 Wins and Losses in Liquid
It's time to sum up last week. There's a storm outside my window, a storm in the market - storms everywhere. Many traders got caught in this storm due to bad forecasts
To get caught in storms less often, you can try using @coinvestai from @liquidtrading
⊹ By the way, good news - the market has turned on the green light starting today, you could even say that it wasn’t the market that turned on the green light, but Trump
🟢 Top 3 Wins
@crypto_torty +208%
@Jellyfish_Joshh +113%
@0xsqd +94%
🔴 Top 3 Losses
@BelimAadil -242%
@Ussman_nazir07 -141%
@n3otextus -74%
I congratulate all the winners who managed to stay dry in such a storm! Unfortunately, there were also those who got completely soaked
● Wishing everyone good luck!
⟣ You can send your own win/loss results to the special thread in the Liquid Discord - "Wins/Losses" https://t.co/pEwq9clWFJ
Welcome
I’ve already told you about how @liquidtrading makes trading simpler and more convenient, and I’ve also written about @coinvestai.
Today, I decided to ask Co-Invest for its opinion on It concludes and see whether it aligns with my own view.
My question: "What do you think about BTC? Do you think we've already hit the bottom, or are we currently in a sideways trend and will continue to fall?"
Co-Invest does not believe that BTC has already formed a bottom.
Its conclusion is that the market is currently in a consolidation phase with a slight bullish bias, but without clear signs of a new uptrend beginning.
Key arguments:
Market positioning is nearly neutral, with roughly 50% longs and 50% shorts.
Smart money is not supporting aggressive upside and is maintaining a relatively small share of long positions.
The main long liquidation zone is located around 58000 – 59000, making this range an attractive target for a potential downside move.
There is also liquidity above the current price around 65000 – 66000, meaning the market could first sweep liquidity to the upside before deciding on its next direction.
High Open Interest continues to create the risk of sharp moves in either direction.
My view
Overall, my outlook is quite similar to Co-Invest’s conclusion.
After BTC dropped to around 60000, we only saw a technical bounce back toward 64000, but fundamentally, the situation has not changed. The global economy remains weak, geopolitical risks have not disappeared, and I currently do not see any major catalysts capable of triggering a full-fledged bullish trend.
In addition, on many platforms, including Hyperliquid, positioning still appears to be tilted toward longs. Historically, the market tends to punish the majority of participants, so the current setup does not look like an ideal environment for sustained long-term growth.
Personally, I view the current market as a consolidation phase before the next downward impulse. I would not rule out a local move higher to sweep liquidity and liquidate shorts, after which I would look for an opportunity to open a short position.
My downside targets remain around 51000, and if negative sentiment intensifies, I could see BTC moving as low as 41000.
For now, neither Co-Invest nor current market data provides convincing evidence that the true bottom has already been established. The market looks more like a liquidity accumulation zone ahead of the next major move.
KAST Payment Link
A @KASTxyz Payment Link is a one-time way to send a specific amount of money to someone. You create a link and send it via message or email.
How it works
If the recipient already has KAST: they simply open the link and claim the funds.
If the recipient does not have KAST yet: they open the link, create an account, complete verification, and then receive the funds.
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You will receive a referral reward only if all three of the following conditions are met:
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I closed my ethereum:native short on @liquidtrading
I wrote about opening this position in a previous post. Last week, when ETH dropped to 1900 and quickly bounced back to 2000, I started seeing a lot of news and posts showing that people were getting FOMO. At that point, I felt the market was likely setting up for another move down.
My targets were: 1880, 1750, 1550
Entry: 2016
At one point, ETH dropped as low as 1512, but unfortunately I was busy and didn't close the position there. Still, today's exit is a solid result: +200%.
For now, all of my positions are closed. I'll be waiting for the next high-conviction setup before entering the market again.
Opened a short on ethereum:native on @liquidtrading.
Recently, ETH dipped below $2,000, and that was exactly the moment the crowd started massively screaming buy the dip. @SantimentData actually just wrote about this.
Honestly, I don't think these were any kind of discounts. More like a typical retail trap.
Yes, ETH bounced back a bit above $2,000, but I don't see any strength in the market yet. When a panicking crowd suddenly turns overly bullish, it's usually a bad sign.
Santiment also noted that retail is currently buying the dip way too aggressively, and historically, such moments often end with another dump.
So, I'm holding onto my short. Let's see how fast FOMO gets replaced by fear again.
Entry point:
2016
Targets:
1880
1750
1550
Okay, @liquidtrading never stops surprising me.
Convenience, convenience, and a thousand times more convenience.
They're building an entire ecosystem designed to make life easier for traders.
You might think trading is hard. Damn right it is. But come on, these days AI can help you figure out almost everything. In the end, it all depends on you.
Just imagine - six years ago, traders didn't have AI tools like we do today. They had to do everything themselves: monitor charts, read news, research information, and find promising coins.
You still need to do all of that today, but now it's much easier. It's easier to understand what's happening because you can ask AI about almost anything. Don't know how to learn trading? Ask AI. Don't understand what's happening on the chart? Ask AI. The key is knowing how to ask the right questions and how to analyze the answers.
Liquid has launched @coinvestai - essentially a tool that lets you trade directly through ChatGPT or Claude. Instead of opening dozens of tabs with news, charts, and exchange platforms, you can simply give AI your request.
https://t.co/hwliYyZYAP
For example, you ask AI to analyze the market. It gathers the latest news and chart data, then suggests a specific trade. That trade appears right inside the chat as a convenient card, and you can execute a buy or sell order with a single click.
How to use it:
1. Through ChatGPT in the Apps section.
2. Through Claude by setting up connectors.
Co-Invest plugin itself is completely free. You only pay the standard trading fees charged by Liquid when you execute trades.
I closed my bitcoin:native short on @liquidtrading
So, the day before yesterday I closed my most profitable and longest-running trade. I didn’t write about it immediately because I was overwhelmed with emotions and simply wanted to relax and enjoy the moment.
I’ve been telling you that I was shorting the market and didn’t believe in the bull run since April 23. I held this position for more than a month.
Honestly, it wasn’t easy. I told you before that my entry could have been better, and there was a point when the position was in the red. But I stuck to my strategy and never deviated from it.
Entry: 78055
Targets:
66000
60000
55000
50000
The day before yesterday, those targets were finally reached.
To be honest, I got carried away by emotions and closed the trade earlier than I originally planned. It’s hard to stay calm when you’ve been holding a position for over a month and suddenly see +135% profit on it.
Exit: 67149
The emotions are still overwhelming. Sure, I wish I had waited a little longer since Bitcoin eventually dropped as low as 61,000, but that’s okay. The important thing is not to get greedy.
As for the market, I still don’t think we’ve seen the real bottom yet. My view is that we’ll move sideways for a while and then continue lower. For now, I decided to secure profits and wait for a new short entry opportunity.
My ethereum:native short is still open, and it’s already up more than 100%. Hahaha, damn, I’m happy with myself. Not a bad way to start the summer.
Wishing everyone big gains and an amazing summer.
Opening a long term SHORT on $BTC on @liquidtrading
Lately I’ve been trading more quick plays - quick shorts, quick longs, catching bounces. As for the market, I’ve always said I’m bearish, and that hasn’t changed.
Right now on the chart, I see a classic bull trap forming. Everyone’s being fed narratives about #Bitcoin going to 200000 – 300000, saying it will repeat gold’s chart.
But come on - if everything were that simple, everyone in crypto would be a millionaire. As we know, only about 10% actually make money, while 90% lose. So when the majority expects upside, I’d rather open a heavy long-term short. Maybe it hits my targets in a week, maybe in two months - but the targets are there (listed below).
I’ll still keep doing short-term trades, but this one will be my biggest position - no stop losses or take profits.
So why don’t I believe in this market?
1. The current BTC move above $78,100 looks like a fragile liquidation rally, driven by an overheated futures market rather than real spot demand. Despite breaking local averages, there’s strong resistance around 80100 – 80500, where short-term holders are likely to take profits at 3x the critical threshold. Without new spot buyers, this move risks turning into a classic bull trap followed by a pullback.
2. Traders are heavily longing BTC and ETH.
> If ETH drops sharply to ~ 2120, long liquidations could exceed $3.27B.
> If BTC drops to ~ 69500, long liquidations could exceed $6.84B.
3. Almost all of the top 15 Hyperliquid traders are currently holding LONG positions in ETH and BTC.
4. Stocks
Despite the SP 500 breaking above 7000 and Nasdaq hitting record streaks, market structure remains fragile due to low volume and weak breadth (only about half of stocks are in uptrends). The rally is driven mainly by blue chips, while macro uncertainty, tariffs, and weak earnings reports keep investors cautious. Even though Citigroup and Wall Street analysts expect 7400–7700 by year-end, the gap between price and economic reality creates risks for this rally’s stability.
5. Trump
Real Clear Politics just updated with Trump’s lowest approval metrics of his second term:
Favorability: -14.2%
Job approval: -17.1%
Direction of the country (wrong track): -26%
None of this looks like green flags for your portfolio to be loaded with cash.
Opening a BTC short with 7x leverage on @liquidtrading
Entry: 78055
Targets:
66000
60000
55000
50000
Overall, I still allow for a move up to 83000 – 86000, this scenario is accounted for in the trade.
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You get your own account numbers for both currencies right in the app, so you no longer need multiple banking apps to manage your income.
How much it costs to receive payments
When someone sends you money, KAST charges a fee depending on the transfer system used. (Note: the sender's bank may also charge additional fees.)
For US dollars:
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@Coleta_Cripto
Everything is going according to plan; it’s nice to see numbers like these.
I’m still not closing my positions, as I have the targets I mentioned earlier.
Glad I was right about my BTC short on @liquidtrading.
My bitcoin:native targets are:
66000
60000
55000
50000
So the Solana trade failed, as you can see. I decided to close it, and in the end my solana:So11111111111111111111111111111111111111112 long finished at a loss of 18%. That’s unfortunate, but the position size was small, so it’s manageable.
I’m still holding my BTC short on @liquidtrading and I remain bearish on the market.
My bitcoin:native targets are:
66000
60000
55000
50000
I’m expecting a major market crash. First of all, new wars are already on the horizon, while the existing ones are nowhere near ending.
Second - the AI bubble.
THE ENTIRE AI BOOM IS BUILT ON FAKE REVENUE.
Tech giants are reporting record profits, but underneath it all are accounting tricks and circular money flows.
The current AI rally is 100% a bubble.
A tech giant (Microsoft, Amazon, Google) gives billions to an AI startup (OpenAI, Anthropic) as an investment.
Hidden in the contract is a condition that the startup must spend that money renting servers from the same tech giant.
The tech giant then records that money as real cloud revenue.
In the end, this creates a circular flow that looks like real business growth, even though the money is simply moving around within the same ecosystem.
The money just circulates inside the system, but financial reports show record growth.
MASSIVE RISK CONCENTRATION.
OpenAI and Anthropic together account for more than 50% of the future cloud backlog of Microsoft, Oracle, Google, and Amazon.
Microsoft: 49% of its backlog ($627B) is tied to OpenAI.
Oracle: 54% of its backlog ($553B) depends on OpenAI.
If one of these startups runs into problems, it will immediately impact the financial reports of the tech giants.
We’ve seen something similar before.
Back in 2000–2001, Global Crossing and Qwest Communications exchanged fiber-optic capacity to create fake sales.
Qwest had to write off $1.4B, while Global Crossing went bankrupt.
The difference is that those schemes were illegal. Today’s AI circular flow is completely legal under current accounting rules (changed in 2016). But the core idea is the same.
INFLATION IS ALSO SIGNALING A POSSIBLE COLLAPSE.
The last three major market crashes happened when CPI rose above 3.8%:
- Dot-com crash: -49%
- Financial crisis: -57%
- 2022 selloff: -25%
CPI is once again approaching that level, while the S&P 500 is sitting near all-time highs.
AI hype is one of the main drivers of risk appetite in the markets.
When the fake revenue narrative in Big Tech starts to unravel, it could heavily impact the entire risk-on sector, including crypto.
My $ETH short on @liquidtrading is paying off.
I managed to read the market and open a short right when people were FOMO buying ETH. Honestly, I expected us to go lower, and that’s exactly what happened. ETH is now trading at 1966, which puts my position up around +20%.
I’m still not closing the trade because I’m strictly following my plan, and the targets are: 1880, 1750, 1550.
If we get close to those levels, I’ll watch the chart carefully and may start taking profits.
Opened a short on ethereum:native on @liquidtrading.
Recently, ETH dipped below $2,000, and that was exactly the moment the crowd started massively screaming buy the dip. @SantimentData actually just wrote about this.
Honestly, I don't think these were any kind of discounts. More like a typical retail trap.
Yes, ETH bounced back a bit above $2,000, but I don't see any strength in the market yet. When a panicking crowd suddenly turns overly bullish, it's usually a bad sign.
Santiment also noted that retail is currently buying the dip way too aggressively, and historically, such moments often end with another dump.
So, I'm holding onto my short. Let's see how fast FOMO gets replaced by fear again.
Entry point:
2016
Targets:
1880
1750
1550
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@Coleta_Cripto
Opened a short on ethereum:native on @liquidtrading.
Recently, ETH dipped below $2,000, and that was exactly the moment the crowd started massively screaming buy the dip. @SantimentData actually just wrote about this.
Honestly, I don't think these were any kind of discounts. More like a typical retail trap.
Yes, ETH bounced back a bit above $2,000, but I don't see any strength in the market yet. When a panicking crowd suddenly turns overly bullish, it's usually a bad sign.
Santiment also noted that retail is currently buying the dip way too aggressively, and historically, such moments often end with another dump.
So, I'm holding onto my short. Let's see how fast FOMO gets replaced by fear again.
Entry point:
2016
Targets:
1880
1750
1550
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A small update on the position - today I saw almost +50% on my bitcoin:native short on @liquidtrading
I’m still holding the trade. You might think I’m being greedy, but I have a plan. I wrote about it in the previous post, and I’m sticking to it.
I also already shared my targets.
By the way, this week the market is getting dumped especially hard- they didn’t even wait for the weekend.
So the Solana trade failed, as you can see. I decided to close it, and in the end my solana:So11111111111111111111111111111111111111112 long finished at a loss of 18%. That’s unfortunate, but the position size was small, so it’s manageable.
I’m still holding my BTC short on @liquidtrading and I remain bearish on the market.
My bitcoin:native targets are:
66000
60000
55000
50000
I’m expecting a major market crash. First of all, new wars are already on the horizon, while the existing ones are nowhere near ending.
Second - the AI bubble.
THE ENTIRE AI BOOM IS BUILT ON FAKE REVENUE.
Tech giants are reporting record profits, but underneath it all are accounting tricks and circular money flows.
The current AI rally is 100% a bubble.
A tech giant (Microsoft, Amazon, Google) gives billions to an AI startup (OpenAI, Anthropic) as an investment.
Hidden in the contract is a condition that the startup must spend that money renting servers from the same tech giant.
The tech giant then records that money as real cloud revenue.
In the end, this creates a circular flow that looks like real business growth, even though the money is simply moving around within the same ecosystem.
The money just circulates inside the system, but financial reports show record growth.
MASSIVE RISK CONCENTRATION.
OpenAI and Anthropic together account for more than 50% of the future cloud backlog of Microsoft, Oracle, Google, and Amazon.
Microsoft: 49% of its backlog ($627B) is tied to OpenAI.
Oracle: 54% of its backlog ($553B) depends on OpenAI.
If one of these startups runs into problems, it will immediately impact the financial reports of the tech giants.
We’ve seen something similar before.
Back in 2000–2001, Global Crossing and Qwest Communications exchanged fiber-optic capacity to create fake sales.
Qwest had to write off $1.4B, while Global Crossing went bankrupt.
The difference is that those schemes were illegal. Today’s AI circular flow is completely legal under current accounting rules (changed in 2016). But the core idea is the same.
INFLATION IS ALSO SIGNALING A POSSIBLE COLLAPSE.
The last three major market crashes happened when CPI rose above 3.8%:
- Dot-com crash: -49%
- Financial crisis: -57%
- 2022 selloff: -25%
CPI is once again approaching that level, while the S&P 500 is sitting near all-time highs.
AI hype is one of the main drivers of risk appetite in the markets.
When the fake revenue narrative in Big Tech starts to unravel, it could heavily impact the entire risk-on sector, including crypto.
Trading, convenience, strategy, alpha, calls, community.
That’s exactly how I’d describe @liquidtrading discord.
Let’s be real, trading alone is hard. That’s why I spend time in their Discord. There are tons of solid traders there sharing their strategies and market views, and the team keeps adding useful tools all the time.
Recently I mentioned that they added a bot that constantly posts important global news, making it way easier to track major events that could crash the market.
Now they’ve added a bot that helps track the price of any token.
Super convenient. Discord is turning into a full-fledged trading hub where you don’t even need to leave to trade comfortably - everything is right there at your fingertips.
Community, strategies, news, prices, charts.
https://t.co/EZ6EXShuQ8
If you’re still not trading through Liquid and not hanging out in their Discord, then I honestly don’t know what you’re doing in crypto.
KAST - A bridge between the crypto world and traditional banks
The stablecoin payments market is heavily concentrated in Asia - the region accounts for 63% of all transactions. North America holds 24%, while Europe makes up 13%.
The biggest use case for stablecoins today is still peer-to-peer transfers, with around 789.5 million transactions in 2025. But the fastest-growing segment is business payments: more people are paying for goods and services with stablecoins, and this category grew by 128%.
As demand for spending crypto in everyday life increases, new services are emerging to make it practical. One of them is @KASTxyz.
Legally, KAST is not a bank - it’s a fintech platform that operates through licensed partners and connects stablecoins with the traditional financial system.
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2. Payment cards. KAST issues Visa cards that work in 170 countries anywhere cashless payments are accepted. Unlike many competitors, they don’t impose hidden spending limits.
3. Real cashback. Users can earn up to 3% cashback depending on the subscription tier (and up to 5% with bonus rewards on paid plans). Cashback is credited instantly in real dollars, not marketplace points.
4. Passive income. Idle funds can be placed into staking with yields of up to 7% annually.
5. Fast transfers. Users can send dollars, local currencies, or crypto to other people 24/7 without hidden fees.
The platform uses institutional-grade security powered by Fireblocks and BitGo.
So the Solana trade failed, as you can see. I decided to close it, and in the end my solana:So11111111111111111111111111111111111111112 long finished at a loss of 18%. That’s unfortunate, but the position size was small, so it’s manageable.
I’m still holding my BTC short on @liquidtrading and I remain bearish on the market.
My bitcoin:native targets are:
66000
60000
55000
50000
I’m expecting a major market crash. First of all, new wars are already on the horizon, while the existing ones are nowhere near ending.
Second - the AI bubble.
THE ENTIRE AI BOOM IS BUILT ON FAKE REVENUE.
Tech giants are reporting record profits, but underneath it all are accounting tricks and circular money flows.
The current AI rally is 100% a bubble.
A tech giant (Microsoft, Amazon, Google) gives billions to an AI startup (OpenAI, Anthropic) as an investment.
Hidden in the contract is a condition that the startup must spend that money renting servers from the same tech giant.
The tech giant then records that money as real cloud revenue.
In the end, this creates a circular flow that looks like real business growth, even though the money is simply moving around within the same ecosystem.
The money just circulates inside the system, but financial reports show record growth.
MASSIVE RISK CONCENTRATION.
OpenAI and Anthropic together account for more than 50% of the future cloud backlog of Microsoft, Oracle, Google, and Amazon.
Microsoft: 49% of its backlog ($627B) is tied to OpenAI.
Oracle: 54% of its backlog ($553B) depends on OpenAI.
If one of these startups runs into problems, it will immediately impact the financial reports of the tech giants.
We’ve seen something similar before.
Back in 2000–2001, Global Crossing and Qwest Communications exchanged fiber-optic capacity to create fake sales.
Qwest had to write off $1.4B, while Global Crossing went bankrupt.
The difference is that those schemes were illegal. Today’s AI circular flow is completely legal under current accounting rules (changed in 2016). But the core idea is the same.
INFLATION IS ALSO SIGNALING A POSSIBLE COLLAPSE.
The last three major market crashes happened when CPI rose above 3.8%:
- Dot-com crash: -49%
- Financial crisis: -57%
- 2022 selloff: -25%
CPI is once again approaching that level, while the S&P 500 is sitting near all-time highs.
AI hype is one of the main drivers of risk appetite in the markets.
When the fake revenue narrative in Big Tech starts to unravel, it could heavily impact the entire risk-on sector, including crypto.