Did you know that compared to the 10 largest cities in US, cities with 5 - 10x SF's population (SF not on that list, SF is 17th most populous), SF's budget is larger than ALL but Chicago & NYC?
Jurors at Bill Hwang’s fraud and market manipulation trial have already heard witnesses say that Archegos lied to its Wall Street counterparties, and this week they will hear from one of the main liars https://t.co/DrDzgWGNvn
Altseason Coming Sooner Than We Expect?
As mentioned in yesterday’s post, this cycle differs from the previous ones, potentially placing us seven months ahead in price action compared to the timelines of the last two cycles.
With that in mind, this should also mean an acceleration in the occurrence of #Altseason. Let’s explore this further.
Analyzing the monthly BTC.D chart, we observe that historically, BTC.D declines around eight months after a halving event, marking the start of altseason. But, with the theory that this cycle is 7 months in advance, we should see a drop in $BTC.D by next month. If not, it should drop in no longer than 8 months, which is due on December 2024.
Personally I anticipate a decline by June, as it also aligns with the possible rejection area from the trend line, as it did the last two cycles.
Paragraphs 928 & 929:
Having (a) reached conclusions on COPA’s allegations of forgery, (b) accepted the remaining allegations of inauthenticity which, as far as I am aware, cover Dr Wright’s Reliance Documents, (c) not had my attention drawn to any other documents which appear to support Dr Wright’s claim and which can be considered reliable, (d) considered the largely circumstantial evidence from the witnesses of fact called to support Dr Wright’s case, (e) considered the evidence given in Dr Wright’s own witness statements and (f) considered all the evidence adduced by COPA and the Developers, the case that Dr Wright is not Satoshi Nakamoto is overwhelming.
929. Although, at the conclusion of closing submissions at the Trial, I did not and could not have all the detail set out in this Judgment and Appendix in my head, I had been taken through it either in pre-reading or during the Trial. I tried to identify whether there was any reliable evidence to support Dr Wright’s claim and concluded there was none. That was why I concluded the evidence was overwhelming. The preparation of this Judgment and Appendix has only confirmed that conclusion.
Paragraph 962:
Overall, in my judgment, (and whether that distinction is maintained or not), Dr Wright’s attempts to prove he was/is Satoshi Nakamoto represent a most serious abuse of this Court’s process. The same point applies to other jurisdictions as well: Norway in particular. Although whether Dr Wright was Satoshi was not actually in issue in Kleiman, that litigation would not have occurred but for his claim to be Satoshi. In all three jurisdictions, it is clear that Dr Wright engaged in the deliberate production of false documents to support false claims and use the Courts as a vehicle for fraud. Despite acknowledging in this Trial that a few documents were inauthentic (generally blamed on others), he steadfastly refused to acknowledge any of the forged documents. Instead, he lied repeatedly and extensively in his attempts to deflect the allegations of forgery.
Many draw the analogy of this cycle's high FDV and low float to the last cycle, but most are missing a key point: the frothy dynamic of new alts in the last cycle was largely due to Alameda scooping up all the pre-TGE spot supply to better pump and short-squeeze the hedgers (remember Mobilecoin?), making the "bullish unlock" meme self-fulfilling. However, this cycle, with Papa Sam and CZ both behind the bar, the unlock is bearish, and FDV is not just a meme