Crypto Capybara - ₿RRR

[Roy @SSJCurrency]

I think that $AERO ignition will be improved way beyond its current state and capture that 1% he's referring to

➡️ VeAERO lockers haven't really accustomed to the model but projects should also know better than to simply airdrop immediately at launch

➡️ Token float would be heavily supported by $AERO emissions for two weeks thus strengthening their liquidity

You need to give incentives for folks to hold riskier alts. Let cash flow through @AerodromeFi or through your own product

[zoomer @zoomerfied]

[ ZOOMER ]

WORLD LIBERTY BLACKLISTS JUSTIN SUN'S ADDRESS, LOCKING 540M IN UNLOCKED TOKENS AND 2.4B IN LOCKED TOKENS AND SAY THEY BELIEVE AN EXCHANGE HAS BEEN USING USER TOKENS TO SELL AND PUSH DOWN THE PRICE: ONCHAIN

[Crypto Capybara - ₿RRR @cryptobaraBTC]

@KobeissiLetter @grok what are the sources?

[apsk32 @apsk32]

Bitcoin bubbles have followed a four-year cycle. I believe these were initially driven by the significant impact that issuance rate step changes had on available supply.

Today, more than 19.8 million of the 21 million total Bitcoin have already been mined. Last cycle, in 2021, many of us believed the four-year pattern would end, but it didn’t. Instead, we saw a double top, with the second peak occurring late in 2021, the post-halving year.

If the four-year cycle were to repeat once more, we would expect it to occur sometime in November or December of this year.

Bitcoin doesn’t exist in a vacuum. It’s now a trillion-dollar asset, and more accessible to traditional markets than ever before.

Given the diminishing impact of Bitcoin halvings and the asset’s growing maturity, I doubt the four-year cycle will repeat without a favorable macro environment.

Fortunately, if the global money supply continues to increase (as it is now) and the U.S. Federal Reserve’s interest rates become less restrictive, I think stocks could close out 2025 with strength.

If that happens, I’d expect Bitcoin to outperform, setting us up for a strong Q4 2025. I still believe that Bitcoin will reach $200k+ later this year.

In the plot, I compare Bitcoin's past cycle prices with 2025 using a power curve fit to scale past prices. I'll drop an animation that explains the scaling in this thread.

I’ve compared 2013, 2017, 2021, and 2025 below.

2013, a year of gradual recovery:
Financial conditions were improving but fragile, with low growth, inflation, and rates, a strong stock market, and a recovering but weak labor market.

2017, a peak expansion year:
Conditions were strong, with moderate growth, manageable inflation, rising rates, a bullish stock market, and a healthy labor market—near the peak of the post-recession expansion.

2021, a stimulus-charged rebound:
Financial conditions were exceptionally loose, with high growth, rising inflation, low rates, a booming stock market, and a recovering labor market—a stimulus-driven peak.

2025, a stabilization period:
Conditions are tighter than prior years, with moderate growth, controlled inflation, elevated rates, a volatile stock market, and a stable labor market—a cautious stabilization phase.

S&P500
2013: 29.6%
2017: 19.4%
2021: 26.9%
2025: -4.4% YTD

Federal Funds Rate
2013, October: 0.09
2017, October: 1.3
2021, October: 0.08
2025, January: 4.33

U.S. M2 % Change
2013: 5.5%
2017: 4.8%
2021: 12.6%
2025: 0.06% (January)

U.S. Inflation YoY
2013, October: 1.5%
2017, October: 2.1%
2021, October: 7%
2025, January: 2.8%

U.S. Unemployment Rate
2013, October: 6.7%
2017, October: 4.1%
2021, October: 3.9%
2025, January: 4.1%

Follow @apsk32

[CZ 🔶 BNB @cz_binance]

@0xastronomica bybit won't be the target if Binance was...😂

[Ben Zhou @benbybit]

Latest Update: Bybit has already fully closed the ETH gap, new audited POR report will be published very soon to show that Bybit is again Back to 100% 1:1 on client assets through merkle tree, Stay tuned.

[Bybit @Bybit_Official]

As part of the investigation and recovery efforts, Bybit is pledging 10% of recovered funds to reward ethical cyber and network security experts who play an active role in retrieving the stolen cryptocurrencies in the incident.

Read more here: https://t.co/DCKgSTnMVO

[Casey Taylor @casatay]

🚨 Bybit just delivered a masterclass in crisis communications after experiencing the largest hack in crypto history. The situation is still live, but they’ve already succeeded in calming markets.

It’s a teachable moment for the rest of us. Here’s what they did right—and why it matters. 🧵👇

[Conor @jconorgrogan]

Binance and Bitget just deposited 50k+ ETH directly into Bybit's cold wallets. Bitget's deposits are especially interesting; its 1/4 of all of the exchange's ETH! (that I can see)

Since they skipped a deposit address, these funds were coordinated directly by Bybit themselves

[Ben Zhou @benbybit]

Bybit is Solvent even if this hack loss is not recovered, all of clients assets are 1 to 1 backed, we can cover the loss.

[Conor @jconorgrogan]

Bybit appears to be processing withdrawals just fine after their hack

They have $20B+ in assets on platform and their cold wallets are untouched. Given the isolated nature of the signing hack, and how well capitalized Bybit is, I don't expect there to be contagion

[Crypto.com Exchange @Cryptocom_Exch]

Fartcoin ($FARTCOIN) is now listed in the https://t.co/A7lhUEyoao Exchange!

💰Trade easily with USD and deposit seamlessly via Solana

Sign up to the Exchange 👉 https://t.co/GBTPzwV3F0

@FartCoinOfSOL

[Moes @GemsByMoes]

One of my favorite long-term holds is $PALM | @palmaierc.

It's very affordable at the moment, so I decided to add more to my position.

Keep in mind that this is the #AI cycle, and $PALM is poised to demonstrate true #AI strength.

In my opinion, it’s undervalued and we will see new all-time highs soon.

[lynk @lynk0x]

Holy fck.

[:) @smileycapital]

honestly impressive

[DEGEN NEWS @DegenerateNews]

BREAKING: @realDonaldTrump SAYS BITCOIN HAS SHATTERED ONE RECORD HIGH AFTER ANOTHER - “THE TRUMP EFFECT”

[dogwifcoin @dogwifcoin]

the dog has landed

[Carl ₿ MENGER ⚡️🇸🇻 @CarlBMenger]

BREAKING: #Bitcoin just reached a new ATH in the Shitcoin called EURO.

[👾 @degentral]

Fartcoin is flipping major memecoins without any CEX listings.

Can you imagine how ridiculous it gets when the taxi drivers get their hands on it?

[DEGEN NEWS @DegenerateNews]

BREAKING: $FARTCOIN (@FartCoinOfSOL) BECOMES THE 4TH LARGEST SOLANA MEMECOIN BY MARKET CAP