Entering a more dangerous phase of the war as Iran begins to directly target energy infrastructure
Hormuz stoppage is like a kinked garden hose—you can unkink it and flow will resume
Hitting infra is like taking a shotgun & blowing off the faucet to which that hose is attached
@Rory_Johnston If the US takes Kharg, Iran could bomb every oil refinery and pipeline in the region, setting the whole region on fire. For that reason, I doubt they'll actually do it.
‼️Dubai Physical crude is trading at around $45 premium to Brent (as flagged by @ryanlemand) on our show today - with futures not necessarily reflecting the tightness in physical markets
Kirill Dmitriev just posted "paper will catch up to physical"
Keep an eye on the physical market
✨🇨🇳This is a high-speed charging station built by BYD in China. It can charge a car from 10% to 70% in just 5 minutes, and from 10% to 97% in 9 minutes, with a range of 1,000 kilometers.
Crude futures aren't telling the full story.
See Dubai physical swaps (white, balance of the month) vs Brent prompt futures (blue) below.
Normally they're pretty close, but right now there's a MAD bid for physical crude in the region—$100/bbl futs, $140/bbl physical barrels.
Crude prices aren't what will ultimately drive the necessary demand destruction should the Strait of Hormuz remain closed.
That job will fall to refined product prices, the things we as consumers actually consume.
Singapore spot jet fuel prices are there already, over $200/bbl
BREAKING: The world is now experiencing its largest oil supply shock in history, losing nearly 20 million barrels of oil supply per day.
Top oil supply shocks:
1. Hormuz Closure (NOW): -20 million b/d
2. Iranian Revolution (1978): -5.5 million b/d
3. Yom Kippur War (1973): -4.5 million b/d
4. Iraq-Kuwait War (1990): -4.3 million b/d
5. Iran-Iraq War (1980): -4.0 million b/d
6. Russia-Ukraine War (2022): -2.0 million b/d
The current supply shock is roughly the same size as the top 2-6 COMBINED.
At birth, success is being alive
At age 3, success is not pooping your pants
At age 10, success is having friends
At age 16, success is having a driver's license
At age 20, success is having sex
At age 30, success is having money.
At age 40, success is having money
At age 55, success is having sex
At age 70, success is having a driver's license
At age 75, success is having friends
At age 80, success is not pooping your pants
At age 90, success is being alive
We all start somewhere and finish where we start, time is the real success so use it wisely
🔥CITIGROUP FORECASTS $150 #SILVER WITHIN 3 MONTHS🔥
🚨Meanwhile, the 5th-largest bank in the US is still forecasting $100 silver by March & a further move up to $150 w/in 3 months, citing an acute shortage of physical silver & increased industrial demand. 🚀🚀
BREAKING: President Trump announces that US-Japan trade deal has officially launched, which includes:
1. $550 billion investment by Japan in the US
2. Funding an LNG facility in Texas
3. Funding a gas power plant in Ohio
4. Funding a critical minerals plant in Georgia