Crypto ₿ULL God, FSA, MAAA

Extremely Avid Crypto Investor ₿ 𐤊 | Logical TA to help others | Youtuber | Credentialed Actuary (FSA) | Passionate Power Bodybuilder | #CBG

[Crypto ₿ULL God, FSA, MAAA @CryptoBullGod]

Executive Summary

Actuarial Perspective on the Bitcoin & Cryptocurrency Market (as of November 22, 2025)

1. Framing the Approach

As a practicing actuary for 21 years, I approach markets the same way I approach mortality, risk, and uncertainty — through a blend of data-driven objectivity and professional judgment. Actuarial science is a balance of art and science, and the cryptocurrency market demands that same equilibrium.

This outlook reflects probabilities, not certainties, and is shared purely for educational purposes — not financial advice.

2. Probabilistic Thinking in Market Evaluation

Whether assessing mortality data or chart structures, every outcome in crypto is probabilistic, never absolute.
The goal is to evaluate the most relevant charts, derive probable outcomes, and stay disciplined against emotional narratives.
Many fail to grasp this nuance — mistaking conviction for certainty.
Objectivity and humility are vital in a market defined by limited historical sample size and immense volatility.

3. The Broader Business Cycle — Not the Halving — Drives Bitcoin

Bitcoin’s market structure aligns far more closely with the macroeconomic business cycle than with its four-year halving schedule.
Key economic levers — Quantitative Easing (QE), Quantitative Tightening (QT), interest rate policy, and the ISM index — are what truly govern liquidity and sentiment.
Historically, halving cycles merely coincided with these macro cycles, giving the illusion of causation.
The current business cycle has extended, breaking the historical four-year rhythm — meaning this crypto cycle will not mirror previous ones.

4. The Data Tells Us the Cycle Has Shifted

For the first time ever, Bitcoin made a new all-time high before its halving — something deemed impossible by those fixated on old models.
This highlights a crucial actuarial concept: sample size limitation. Crypto data is too young to draw definitive cyclical conclusions.
Many analysts mistake correlation for causation, attributing cycles to halving dates rather than macroeconomic liquidity shifts.
The extended business cycle explains these deviations, and this cycle is once again throwing the market a curveball.

5. Three Most Probable Market Scenarios

Scenario 1: Traditional Bear Market

Bitcoin corrects ~50%, dropping to the low $40Ks, with a prolonged year-long drawdown.
Altcoins collapse more severely, with many wiped out.
The market re-enters a new bull phase heading into 2027.
Probability: low to moderate.

Scenario 2: V-Shaped Recovery

Bitcoin quickly rebounds to new all-time highs.
Altcoins explode in a sharp altseason, peaking early 2026.
This mirrors 2020’s “black swan” recovery, but such rapid rebounds are rare and not supported by current data.
Probability: low.

Scenario 3: Extended Cycle Consolidation (Base Case)

Bitcoin corrects and consolidates between $70K–$80K, forming a higher low relative to April 2025.
Altcoins bleed and move sideways.
The market resumes its uptrend as the business cycle reaccelerates — likely Q2 2026.
Probability: high — this is my primary thesis.

6. Technical & Macro Supporting Evidence

Bitcoin Dominance: Broke down from an ascending channel and looks bearish on the monthly. Never before has a four-year cycle ended with dominance this overextended (~59%). This suggests a coming rotation into altcoins.
Total, Total2, Total3, and “Others vs BTC” charts: All in massive bullish formations on higher timeframes, inconsistent with an imminent full-blown bear market.
Bearish warning signs:
Weekly Gaussian channel entry — historically precedes deep corrections.
Breakdown below 125 SMA (3-day) — your custom indicator signaling possible downside.

These mixed signals highlight the tension between data and judgment — objectively bearish signals versus the unique extended nature of this macro cycle.

7. Balancing Objectivity with Professional Judgment

Objectively, traditional indicators argue the bull market is over.
Professionally, judgment suggests this is an elongated mid-cycle correction, not a terminal top.
The key is to remain adaptive, data-driven, and probabilistically humble — not anchored to past cycles.

8. Recommended Outlook & Risk Management Mindset

Expect a strong bounce in the near term.
Use that opportunity to take partial profits — “chips off the table” — as an insurance policy against uncertainty.
Don’t exit the market entirely; rather, reassess as conditions evolve:
Is Scenario 1 (bear market) unfolding?
Is Scenario 2 (V-shape) gaining traction?
Is Scenario 3 (consolidation) confirming?

I personally favor Scenario 3 but act with prudence, not presumption — because even the best analysis operates in probabilities, not absolutes.

9. Final Thoughts

This analysis isn’t about predictions — it’s about discipline in uncertainty.

Actuaries deal in probabilities, not promises. The same principle applies here.

Whether Bitcoin is at $40K, $80K, or $200K, the key remains the same:

Evaluate objectively. Interpret probabilistically. Act prudently.

#Bitcoin #Kaspa #Ethereum $KAS $BTC $ETH

[Crypto ₿ULL God, FSA, MAAA @CryptoBullGod]

@blackwidowbtc Yup

And given the move up, several green weeks, now that it has confirmed a break down, the snap back down will be pretty violent

[Crypto ₿ULL God, FSA, MAAA @CryptoBullGod]

Coming across my feed, I see several things.

I see people wanting to be first in line calling a bottom who will more than likely be proven wrong.

I see people searching for bullish interpretations of every drop in price.

I see people desperately trying to find any chart that suggests anything remotely bullish.

But here’s what I’m not seeing enough of:

Maybe we should just be patient here and allow price action to develop before concluding what’s most likely to happen next.

The biggest thing this space suffers from is impatience.

Whether people recognize it or not, many are heavily biased in their views. They are not objectively evaluating data. They already have a primary thesis, and then they search for information that supports it.

I’ve said for months now what I believed was most probable, while also acknowledging what was certainly possible. There’s still a wide range of possibilities at this moment.

If you’d like to hear my broader thoughts on what I think is most probable, I’ll provide a link below to a video I made several weeks back. I’d suggest watching it at 1.4x to 1.5x speed. In my opinion, it’s still a very good listen.

Now that price is beginning to accelerate to the downside on both $BTC and $ETH, largely as expected, I think the best thing we can do is simple:

Be patient.

Allow price to develop over the coming handful of weeks before becoming overly confident in any one direction.

You are not going to miss anything meaningful by exercising patience throughout the month of June.

In fact, patience this month could potentially create a very large opportunity for those willing to wait.

That’s my suggestion.

#Bitcoin #ETH
$KAS #Kaspa

https://t.co/kshnQJMEik

[Crypto ₿ULL God, FSA, MAAA @CryptoBullGod]

Captain squiggles didn’t like hearing the truth

Anyone listening to this clown deserves what they get

No logic

No education

Farming engagement

$btc #bitcoin

[Crypto ₿ULL God, FSA, MAAA @CryptoBullGod]

$NOCK has been accumulating for several days now…

[Crypto ₿ULL God, FSA, MAAA @CryptoBullGod]

Give this vide a watch/listen at 1.4-1.5x

As price continues to develop, I’ll likely look to put something new out late june/early July

Subscribe for education, authenticity, objective analysis, and my own personal brand of humor

$btc $kas
#bitcoin #kaspa

[Crypto ₿ULL God, FSA, MAAA @CryptoBullGod]

To those who continue denying there was a $btc bear flag

And we’re now accelerating down bc it broke👇🏽

[Crypto ₿ULL God, FSA, MAAA @CryptoBullGod]

@KevinSvenson_ Kevin 😂😂😂

That lasted all of 2 hours

[Crypto ₿ULL God, FSA, MAAA @CryptoBullGod]

@KevinSvenson_ 👇🏽

[Kevin Svenson @KevinSvenson_]

Bottom is in.

[Crypto ₿ULL God, FSA, MAAA @CryptoBullGod]

1 thing you can blindly do with confidence $BTC conception to date:

BUY #BITCOIN anywhere at/near 200-SMA on the weekly

It may not bottom there

But historically speaking a VERY good long term entry point

[Crypto ₿ULL God, FSA, MAAA @CryptoBullGod]

Welcome to “hope”

$ETH has not bottomed yet

$BTC has not bottomed yet

[CryptosRus @CryptosR_Us]

MARK CUBAN DUMPED BITCOIN -- TOM LEE THINKS THAT’S A SIGNAL.

Tom Lee says crypto has disappointed lately, but the future of $BTC and $ETH hasn’t changed.

In his view, the “rage quitting” happening now looks a lot like the final stage of crypto winter. 👀

[Crypto ₿ULL God, FSA, MAAA @CryptoBullGod]

If you believe this then you deserve to roundtrip to learn a life lesson: commonsense

$xrp #xrpcommunity #xrp

[Crypto ₿ULL God, FSA, MAAA @CryptoBullGod]

This was my original background for livestreams

Why? I loved the contradiction of supporting both $xrp and $btc

They were so different, and my argument was owning both provided strong diversification

Now, they are both banker coins
Quite blown away from recent developments

If only there was a grassroots POW project that stayed true to Satoshi’s vision….

$KAS #KASPA #KAS

[Crypto ₿ULL God, FSA, MAAA @CryptoBullGod]

Very few

[Crypto ₿ULL God, FSA, MAAA @CryptoBullGod]

At the start of the year, my outlook was the $BTC bottom would come sooner than most thought, stating sometime between March to May

Looks like it will be June

Of course, we need to allow price to develop, but that weekly divergence that has followed every cycle bottom could very well play out this month, providing some much needed confirmation that bottom is likely in

Stay patient, grounded, and convicted to your game plan

#Bitcoin

[Crypto ₿ULL God, FSA, MAAA @CryptoBullGod]

I am very open to final cycle low coming 4th quarter

However, I currently believe there will be acceleration to the downside now that the bear flag very continue to accept has broken, which IMO will lead to prices entering the $50k-$40k zone which is my personal bottoming zone

[Crypto ₿ULL God, FSA, MAAA @CryptoBullGod]

Stop making excuses

We all could make them if we wanted to

If you want something bad enough, you get it done😤🏋🏽

Nuff said

[Crypto ₿ULL God, FSA, MAAA @CryptoBullGod]

I still altseason calls😂😂😂

These people are unreal

[Crypto ₿ULL God, FSA, MAAA @CryptoBullGod]

😂😂😂😂😂

Oh Petey @PeterSchiff

We are not going to $20K

I have lost track how many horrible $btc calls you’ve had

[Cointelegraph @Cointelegraph]

🚨 NOW: Peter Schiff warns that once Bitcoin breaks below $50K, a swift drop under $20K could follow, enough to shake long-term HODLers into finally selling.

[Watcher.Guru @WatcherGuru]

JUST IN: Tom Lee's 'Bitmine' $ETH investment is currently at a $8,700,000,000 unrealized loss.