cryptocapo

[il Capo @CryptoCapo_]

#Oil update

Idea from a month ago.

[InterServer @interserver]

Interserver VPS Hosting

[Ted @TedPillows]

$BTC is back above the $75,000 level.

The key zone for Bitcoin here is $76,000 and a reclaim could push BTC towards the $78,000-$80,000 zone.

This is where I'll go short on Bitcoin.

[The Kobeissi Letter @KobeissiLetter]

BREAKING: Bitcoin rises above $76,000 and hits its highest level in 10 weeks.

[Crypto Rover @cryptorover]

BOOM 🚀 BITCOIN HITS $76,000

[Bitcoin Junkies @BitcoinJunkies]

BITCOIN JUST FLIPPED BULLISH 🚀

$80k is imminent

[il Capo @CryptoCapo_]

No changes, still bearish and expecting a capitulation event before any real altseason. Risk remains high despite the overall bullish sentiment.

Positioned in stablecoins and swing short positions with low leverage.

For more updates: https://t.co/lGkE8yqmkk

[il Capo @CryptoCapo_]

“If you want to find the secrets of the cryptoverse, think in terms of liquidity, fuckery and manipulation.”

[il Capo @CryptoCapo_]

It doesn’t really matter if I’m right or wrong.

What matters is the message, and that message has helped many avoid losses during the biggest liquidation event in crypto history.

This wasn’t a one-time call. I’ve stood by this view since May, through every wave of criticism, and I still do.

Some point out that $BTC is higher than it was in May, missing the point entirely. The warnings were never just about Bitcoin, but about the entire market.

Bitcoin’s relative strength is only delaying the inevitable. It will eventually reach its fair value too. With a few isolated exceptions, most altcoins have shown weakness for months, and this event simply confirmed the fragility of liquidity and structure underneath.

And this was probably just the beginning.

The main event, most likely global, hasn’t happened yet...

[il Capo @CryptoCapo_]

Yes.

[il Capo @CryptoCapo_]

My thoughts for the rest of 2025 and 2026

Lately, I’ve been less vocal about my mid and long-term predictions. I’ve mostly focused on the short-term. That’s because, over the years, I’ve come to believe that the best approach is to focus on current data and the next moves. To stay flexible. It’s all about forecasts vs. adaptability [https://t.co/0nmQyLlPpE]

But like everything in life, extremes rarely work. It can’t be 100% predictions, nor 0%. Same goes for adaptability. You need both. The key is finding the balance.

Still, this time it feels even more important to have some perspective about what could be coming next. Because if you’re not mentally or strategically prepared, the scale of what might unfold could truly catch you off guard.

Some of you will remember what I said back in 2023 and 2024. While my timing was off, the core thesis hasn’t changed. Let me explain:

During the 2020 COVID era, the Fed printed over 4 trillion USD to inject into the economy. It delayed the collapse, but didn’t solve anything. This was the start of a massive QE (Quantitative Easing) phase. Then, inflation hit, and the Fed had to reverse course. QT began (Quantitative Tightening), rates went up, and liquidity was pulled out. That’s been slowing down the economy for months.

Despite that, both #stocks and #BTC hit new highs. But now, interest rates are starting to come down. And historically, that’s been a sign that recession is on the way. I said this several times back in 2023 and 2024 [https://t.co/XCTSHoX6xw], [https://t.co/9UUlG20Nxd]

And this is what I mean when I say the inevitable is just being delayed: a major global reset. Not just any correction, but something comparable to 1929. A true depression. What many call “The Great Reset.” A shift towards a new system: digital economy, ISO 20022 standard, CBDCs… all of it. Estimated to unfold between late 2025 and early 2026.

Tariffs are just noise in the bigger picture. As Ray Dalio said a few days ago, they’re a distraction from what really matters [https://t.co/SODTk2zvQa]. And in my view, stronger events are coming that will bring sharper corrections.

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With that said, here’s how I see things across different timeframes:

Very short-term (next few days):

As I said recently, a rebound was expected, and we’re getting it. After the 90-day pause on tariffs, the market is reacting well. $BTC could move towards the $92k–$98k zone. Many altcoins could bounce 50%–100%.

Short-term (next few weeks):

Once resistance is hit, there’s a decent chance we’ll see another capitulation. Whether triggered by renewed tariff talk or something else (another pandemic scare, or escalating conflict), we’ll need to adapt as things develop. But the probability is high.

Medium-term (next few months, probably until September):

Overall, I expect a bullish trend. Whether after a potential shakeout event or directly from here, we could see some sort of altseason. Not as crazy as 2021, and definitely not like 2017. That won't happen until strong QE (probably 2027-2030).

Some alts might break highs, others won’t. But prices are now very oversold, and returns could be very good. Even if a black swan hits, that would only improve the accumulation zones forming since late March.

Mid / Long-term (late 2025 and 2026):

This is where things could get really ugly. Like I’ve said before, this “bull market” never felt like a real bull market. $BTC was pushed up artificially by ETFs and USDT/USDC minting. Meanwhile, many alts are still near their lows. This disconnect is concerning.

September might be a key pivot. If you look at the 2021 cycle, it’s very similar:

April–July 2021 = current February-April 2025

July–November 2021 = potentially late April to September 2025

November 2021 = bear market begins. Same could happen from September 2025 onward.

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We’ve never seen how #Bitcoin behaves during a real crisis, especially not a global recession/depression. If that happens, expect extreme volatility, and probably the worst part of the cycle.

This isn’t meant to discourage anyone. There will be opportunities, especially in the next few months. But it’s better to be ready than caught off guard. Most importantly: stay flexible.

I’ll be expanding on all this in the coming weeks. Breaking it down point by point, adding charts and deeper context.

Important: This is just my opinion. None of this is financial advice. Always do your own research.

[il Capo @CryptoCapo_]

Higher, especially for alts.

[il Capo @CryptoCapo_]

$BTC

⌛️

[il Capo @CryptoCapo_]

To be honest, this looks like a bear trap.

Keep calm.

[il Capo @CryptoCapo_]

In any case, we do really live in the Truman Show.

We are ruled by people whose egos just look for power and don't care about any human lives. Main goal is to try to keep us in a fear state. Don't let them.

Stay updated, but also stay grounded.

[il Capo @CryptoCapo_]

Market went up until the Fed interest rate decision yesterday, and started retracing right after.

The targets I mentioned weren't reached, but they still remain likely.

I will update here if invalidation or targets are hit.

[il Capo @CryptoCapo_]

Very bullish on privacy coins over the coming months.

[il Capo @CryptoCapo_]

$XMR just reached a new ATH.

Such a strong breakout with volume.

Same as with #Gold and #Silver, short-term corrections can happen, but this should go much higher.

[il Capo @CryptoCapo_]

Often, this is where the majority panics and turns bearish, and the market finds a local bottom.

[il Capo @CryptoCapo_]

My Thesis for the Privacy Narrative

For the better part of a decade, the prevailing narrative in both traditional finance and crypto was that ''transparency is a virtue''. We were conditioned to believe radical openness is the default state of the future, and that only those with something to hide (criminals, tax evaders, paranoiacs) would ever demand privacy.

I think that era is ending.

As we enter 2026, the market is already showing a rotation that most people are still ignoring.

Take this chart as an example:

$ZEC printed an 18x to 20x move in roughly 3 months (Aug to Nov 2025), and is now consolidating. $XMR has also doubled in price in the same timeframe. All of this while #Bitcoin has retraced from the all-time high of $125k to a local low of $81k. This means money has been rotating, and it’s a clear sign of strength for privacy coins.

But… why is this happening?

Privacy is no longer a luxury. The social contract regarding money is being broken. Money is transitioning from being a tool of freedom to becoming a tool of surveillance.

Money is constantly evolving. Now digital money is becoming more integrated, more automated, and more connected to rules and systems. That trend is largely unavoidable.

CBDCs are part of that conversation. With 137 jurisdictions, representing 98% of global GDP, exploring Central Bank Digital Currencies (#CBDCs), the debate is no longer if they will arrive, but when and how. While CBDCs offer some benefits, like offering clear efficiency gains for central banks, their underlying programmable nature introduces the structural capacity for unprecedented oversight.

The design specifications of many pilot programs include features that could theoretically allow for expiration dates on funds, negative interest rates to enforce spending, or spending limits based on social metrics (social credit score). Even the potential for such control is altering the risk profile of holding cash within the traditional system. As these architectures get closer, the market is beginning to price in the demand for alternatives where money cannot be programmed or restricted by a central issuer. Not predicting a dystopian future, but hedging about the technological capabilities of it is always a smart choice.

This is also being accelerated by the systematic ‘’War on Cash’’. As governments eliminate physical cash, through withdrawal limits and the stigmatization of paper money, a massive vacuum is created. We already saw in Canada that a supposedly democratic government was willing to freeze the bank accounts of citizens for peaceful protest.

However, the argument for privacy extends far beyond that. There is a fatal flaw in the ''transparency'' narrative that the crypto community is only now starting to price in: security. Living in a ''Glass House'' is dangerous. With the advent of AI and advanced chain analysis, ‘’transparency’’ is a synonym for vulnerability. For example, if you pay for a coffee with Bitcoin on a public ledger, the barista can theoretically see your entire net worth, your income, and your home address. High net-worth individuals are realizing that total transparency makes them targets.

This is amplified by the reality of corporate espionage. Major corporations are less likely to move their supply chains to a public blockchain like Ethereum or Solana. Why? Because they cannot afford to have their competitors see exactly who they pay, how much they pay, and when their supply chains falter.

The market data confirms this rotation. We are seeing the DEX/CEX ratio hitting all-time highs as users seek non-custodial, private ways to trade.

Not to forget the technicals, which I consider even more important than fundamentals. #Monero remains the main privacy coin. There’s probably better privacy tech out there, but there are other factors that make it number one by market cap (though temporarily slightly surpassed by ZEC).

As I’ve been posting these last weeks, $XMR chart is one of a kind. With a massive bullish pattern that resembles similarities with the silver chart just before the breakout.

If we get a clean breakout, I see $1,000 as a minimum target. And if that happens, it likely pulls the entire privacy narrative with it.

Here's the bottom line:

-Privacy is being repriced as infrastructure, not just ideology.

-The world is building more digital control surfaces, whether people admit it or not.

-Cash is fading, reporting is expanding, and on-chain transparency is becoming a liability for both individuals and businesses.

-When a narrative concentrates into a small group of assets, moves can be violent.

I think 2026 is a year where the privacy theme can dominate for months, and potentially longer.

Security. Fairness. Sovereignty. Resilience.

And one last reminder: none of this is a call to live in fear. Privacy is a tool, not a lifestyle. Protect your optionality, but don’t forget to disconnect sometimes. Touch grass. Keep your mind clear. That’s an edge too.

Disclaimer: This is just my opinion and does not constitute financial advice.