il Capo

Independent market analyst, trader, and investor. Crypto since Feb 2017.
Passionate about what I do.

Not financial advice.

"Know thyself. Kingdom awaits."

[il Capo @CryptoCapo_]

$BTC

Main support zone reached. Confluence of OB + 2021 ATHs (November and April) + 2024 ATH. Most alts also at HTF support.

Lots of liquidity above, and shorts are aggressive here. Sentiment can't be more negative.

There's no better time for a strong bounce (short squeeze)

[il Capo @CryptoCapo_]

Not necessarily. It may be evolving.

My view is that BTC could be in a broader macro bearish phase, with strong rallies in between (like the one I'm expecting now). But if 2026-2028 remains mostly bearish and real recovery starts around the next halving, I'd see that as a distorted cycle.

Kind of like music: you can still have a 4-beat rhythm, but every few bars the structure can shift.

[il Capo @CryptoCapo_]

$BTC is back at $60k levels.

The analysis is not playing out yet, thus I'm wrong so far. High time frame (HTF) analyses take time to play out. Timing matters, but getting the perfect timing is never easy. As long as you catch the main idea and the macro move, that's what truly matters.

However, my thesis is and remains:

-This is an HTF strong support zone, same as in February.

-Sentiment is now even more negative, with many expecting lower.

-Several reasons to think the Middle East conflict shouldn't escalate further and have a proper temporary ceasefire ($Oil chart looking bearish short/mid-term, football World Cup, summer…)

-Stocks could have been leading these past months with those strong rallies, and I believe rotation can happen from stocks to crypto in the last stages before a major bear market (will expand further on this)

-Altcoins have been holding much better than $BTC, which is a sign of strength.

-Many altcoins are 90%-99% down, without proper DCBs. This is not time to sell, but to buy.

-I think regulations will bring more focus to digital money, especially ISO 20022 coins, which could benefit from it ($XRP, $XLM, $QNT, $HBAR…). So in parallel, privacy coins should also perform well as it’s the counter narrative ($XMR, $ZEC ...)

Important to say I don't expect this rally to be a new bull market… I just think this could be the last rally before a proper bear market across most assets, including crypto, stock market, housing market… with some categories diverging (precious metals, rare earths…)

Why?

I will expand further on this, but as you might know, I'm bearish for the coming years. There might be some catalyst, apart from the Middle East war which should be reactivated later, that will trigger an economic crisis. Many pay attention to the Strait of Hormuz, but few do pay attention to the Strait of Taiwan. In my opinion, that will be the main trigger of the crisis and it will come as a domino effect, unveiling the underlying fragility of the current system. Eyes on China-Taiwan for later this year / next year.

But for now, and focusing on what matters (the present moment), I believe we are in an accumulation phase for crypto. The move up could last some weeks/months, and it would be one of the most hated rallies.

So basically my plan remains the same. I’m bullish and accumulating solid altcoins for the next few weeks/months, for the first time in years.

Time will tell.

[il Capo @CryptoCapo_]

@Hawk_Finance @XdBadem17683 Yes.

[il Capo @CryptoCapo_]

@seth_fin It's a customized indicator.

And yes, agreed on that range.

[il Capo @CryptoCapo_]

You might be a new follower.

2023 and 2024 weren't my best years and I was mostly wrong on timing, especially for BTC, though the macro view on alts held. But the overall track record is public and verifiable:

2017: rode the entire bull market, my start on crypto.

2018: Nailed the bear market and the exact bear market bottom (posted on TradingView).

2019-2020: Called the 2019 local top and the 2020 Covid crash.

2021-2022: Nailed the bull market with several 5x-20x calls, and the 2022 bear market (including LUNA and FTX collapses).

2025: Called the Oct 10th black swan (https://t.co/VOx0wzOK5W) and the cycle top at 115k (https://t.co/MDhCElRgeu).

2026: Flipped bullish at 60k-80k and we are still navigating this zone.

Nobody is right 100% of the time. Analysts have cycles, just like the markets.

If you are too lazy to scroll back and verify by yourself, you can literally just ask Grok.

[il Capo @CryptoCapo_]

$BTC

Confirmations needed, but the cycle top could be in.

Loss of momentum, good news not having impact anymore, and a potential financial crisis incoming.

Reminder: Not financial advice. Just my opinion and observation.

[il Capo @CryptoCapo_]

@Hawk_Finance Yes, that's the idea.

And likely a bearish continuation from August-September.

[il Capo @CryptoCapo_]

It's true the last weeks haven't been the best PA wise, and a bounce was (and is) expected.

But also, let's not forget this is a clear HTF S/R flip and that the worst is over.

Not concerned. I think the real move is still ahead.

[Vax Merstappen @Raduk1610]

@CryptoCapo_ Yo @CryptoCapo_ aren’t you concerned by the weekly close?

[il Capo @CryptoCapo_]

@bitcoin_qw Yes. If $BTC moves up from here, which is likely, alts should outperform.

In fact, they are starting to hold better during this move down, which is a good sign.

https://t.co/1GWHfSrwyS

[il Capo @CryptoCapo_]

The next leg up is when altcoins should really start outperforming.

[il Capo @CryptoCapo_]

@AMervjak Could be, but it seems too long to be a valid continuation pattern. And most are eyeing that.

We'll see.

[il Capo @CryptoCapo_]

@SrAlbertou Even more clear accumulation range. The wick shows the way.

[il Capo @CryptoCapo_]

@Intern_Leverup Lol. I've been bullish from 60ks though.

[il Capo @CryptoCapo_]

$XLM - HTF view

[il Capo @CryptoCapo_]

"Silence reveals what noise hides"

[il Capo @CryptoCapo_]

@ryuki_nohara It literally takes 1 minute to overlay the $BTC and #gold charts and see that they are far from being inversely correlated all the time.

[il Capo @CryptoCapo_]

#Gold could be starting a hyperwave with $4500 as long term target.

[il Capo @CryptoCapo_]

Good bounce so far for both #Gold and #Silver, since the local bottom call.

Bullish setups.

[il Capo @CryptoCapo_]

#Gold and #Silver just had their short-term corrections, exactly as expected.

Local bottom is likely in, and new highs should be next.

[il Capo @CryptoCapo_]

@trader1sz Good one, and happy birthday!

[il Capo @CryptoCapo_]

@FesCrypto 🤝

[il Capo @CryptoCapo_]

The next leg up is when altcoins should really start outperforming.

[il Capo @CryptoCapo_]

@CryptoChihiro Likely.

[il Capo @CryptoCapo_]

78k-80k reached.

Bullish continuation soon, imo.

[il Capo @CryptoCapo_]

Potential quick pullback to 78k-80k, to shakeout late longs.

Then bullish continuation to 85k-90k.

Let's see.

[il Capo @CryptoCapo_]

@NoseCucumber Yes. I'm bearish mid-term, probably from August until 2028 or more.

But step by step.