Chiviada

— NFA. Just crypto material.

[Markie Wagner @markiewagner]

Stepping outside my Stanford/Google/Waymo research bubble and sitting with real American companies made me realize why the bulk of the economy was not automatable by software or AI.

We needed something new that is neither strictly code or AI, something that can flex but deliver reliable and affordable results to the biggest companies in the world.

@tbpn @PoeticHQ

[Peter / 1k(x) @pet3rpan_]

A directional view of where we are excited to continue investing in over the next few years at @1kxnetwork

[Blockstream @Blockstream]

Liquid Network has been producing a block every minute since 2018.

Now transaction volume is up 15x. The market is paying attention.

Give your business real-time insight into Bitcoin's financial layer with the Blockstream Explorer API.

🔗 https://t.co/nhLUzivHb0

[Gavin Andresen @gavinandresen]

I learned a lot about fertility and birth control working on the RiskiPedia pregnancy page. Three things I didn't know that surprised me:

1. Unprotected sex between two young, fertile people at the peak of the women's cycle has about a 1 in 3 chance of resulting in pregnancy. Lower than I expected!

2. Unprotected sex outside about a two-week window has a very low chance of pregnancy. The "rhythm method" of birth control works if you and your partner have inhuman levels of self-discipline.

3. "Pulling out" as a birth control method is much more effective than your 7th grade health teacher told you.

Explore the data at: https://t.co/5m1JR3PQ0q

[Cathie Wood @CathieDWood]

We loved our time with you in St. Petersburg, @realBobbyHealy ! Thank you for bringing your wisdom and wit to ARK’s Big Ideas Summit at spARK LABS. We are a proud investor in Manna, a drone company revolutionizing the transportation of goods and services in the US and Europe!

[H.E. Justin Sun 👨‍🚀 🌞 @justinsuntron]

From a visionary to a global force — honored to be featured on Forbes as Crypto’s Billionaire Barker. TRON’s journey continues, powering a global payment system with 300 million users and counting. Decentralization will prevail.

[Nikil Viswanathan @nikil]

$4T in market cap, $5T in assets, 1 room.

11 takeaways from the execs transforming finance x AI at our first dev conference (@alchemy CoBuild) 👇

[James Wang @WBJcrypto]

POV: Conference At Trump's Mar-A-Lago

[Market Bubble @MarketBubble]

Ansem reveals he bought $RKLB at $6 and $7 😭😭

[Lunar @LunarResearcher]

A 27-year-old in Chengdu has been pretending to go to work for 11 months. His mother irons the shirt every morning. Last Tuesday his Polymarket wallet crossed $69,800.

He goes by kingofcoinflips.

Huawei cut him in June along with the rest of the cloud team. Two months of severance, a stack of recommendation letters nobody opens, and a non-disclosure he keeps in the same drawer as his diploma.

He never said a word at home. Every morning he pulls on the same shirt, takes the metro three stops past the Huawei tower, and sits in a co-working desk above a dumpling shop in Chunxi Lu. Six other guys in the same row are running the same routine. Nobody asks.

What he brought to the table was 3,400 logged setups since August and a highlighted photocopy of a 1948 Bell Labs paper.

Claude Shannon. The MIT professor who quietly compounded 28% a year for three decades and edged out Buffett in the process. He didn't pick stocks. He measured how much information his bets contained, in bits.

This kid does the same thing on daily Bitcoin price markets.

Every contract gets one number before he touches it:

D_KL(P‖Q) = Σ p(x) · log2[p(x)/q(x)]

Under 0.05 bits and the fees swallow you. Past 0.10 it's real signal. Past 0.30 your model is broken.

Last Tuesday's hit: a BTC Above $80,000 contract quoted at 26.8¢ at sunrise. Order flow on Binance over the prior two hours gave his calculator 0.31 bits. True probability sat closer to 71%. The bot loaded half Kelly. Eight hours later the contract settled at a dollar. +$2,264 on a single click.

He stacks a second number on top of every market. How much the Binance tape actually tells him about where Polymarket is heading:

I(X;Y) = H(X) - H(X|Y)

Under 0.10 bits and the noise wins. Past 0.18 the channel is open.

A third loop measures the sharpness of every estimate before sizing:

J(θ) = E[(∂/∂θ log f(x|θ))²]

When Fisher climbs while mutual information falls, the market is sharpening on noise. He calls it the trap zone. Cost him $9,000 in the first six weeks before he started logging it. Hasn't lost there since.

The whole thing exists because Polymarket's daily crypto markets trail the spot tape by roughly forty minutes on slow Asian sessions. Forty minutes is forever for a script and impossible for a person.

Out of 3,400 entries, the calculator killed 89% before they ever reached the order book. The 11% that survived built the $69,800 position stack and the $27,500 cumulative since August.

His mother sent him a picture of a suit yesterday. Said it's for the family dinner next month. He told her he'd wear it.

Plans to tell her the truth at $100,000.

His wallet: https://t.co/xS8DE7So64

99.9% scroll past and call it luck. 0.01% count bits.

[raul0ligma.eth @raul0ligma]

higher fees have been sort of a friction point for hip3 markets since launch, it was fixed at the 2x validator perps with a 50-50 split.
there's now an update (on testnet). deployers can set a scale parameter.

eg. setting scale=0 makes trading hip3 perps equivalent to validator perps, making it easier to bootstrap new markets and more cost effective for users depending on the deployer's config

[aa-roo-shi @aarushiftw]

Onwards and upwards!

[Kreo @kreoapp]

Trading made even easier ☄️

1️⃣ Candlesticks on Crypto Charts
2️⃣ Timeframe Options on Up/Down Charts
3️⃣ Transfer Funds Between Kreo Wallets with Ease
4️⃣ Select Different PNL Images/Videos for Different Tasks
5️⃣ In-Depth Wallet Analysis
6️⃣ Rename Autotrade Tasks
7️⃣ Share Your Suggestions to Improve Kreo
8️⃣ Limit Buy Offset Mode Now Available in Cents

Building the experience you deserve. 🌤️

[Jake Nomada 🌎 @JakeNomada]

Expecting to see these cities get more and more expats over the next few years...

→ Panama City 🇵🇦
→ Montevideo 🇺🇾
→ Punta del Este 🇺🇾
→ Asuncion 🇵🇾

All offer massive tax benefits for Europeans, Canadians, and Australians

All offer easy residency programs and visa options

All offer reasonable cost of living

All livable and comfortable in their own ways

[PredictFolio @PredictFolio]

We just launched the biggest update ever!

Our new website https://t.co/lnEn638GwN is now a must for EVERY prediction market user:

- PnL & Performance PER market
- Near real time trade activity
- See your counter parties in EVERY trade
- Combined PnL for events with multiple markets
- View your 24H PnL changes PER market
- Analyze your total trade history

Next up: markets 😛

[Car @CarOnPolymarket]

This is how much I spend as a professional Polymarket trader:

- $2,080/month Bloomberg Terminal
- $40/month WSJ
- $70/month Financial Times
~ $120/month Red Bull Sugar Free
~ $4,000/month Uber Eats
- $2,100/month Rent
- $200/month ChatGPT

https://t.co/DfwNYFAIem

[Aave @aave]

Aave LLC has filed an emergency motion to vacate a restraining notice served on Arbitrum DAO on May 1, 2026 that attempts to seize approximately $71 million in ETH belonging to victims of the April 18 exploit.

A thief does not gain lawful ownership of stolen property simply by taking it, and the law is clear on this. Those assets were recovered to be returned to users victimized in the April 18, 2026 exploit. Freezing them harms the very people this recovery effort is designed to protect.

We’ve asked the court for an expedited hearing and a temporary vacatur, and we are continuing to work alongside the Arbitrum community and DeFi United to make affected users whole.

[Route 2 FI @Route2FI]

Trying a bet on MegaETH below $1,5b FDV one day after launch.

I already have a bet on above $800m FDV from 2 months back, so ideally the launch will be in this interval so that I win on both bets.

Expecting a little sell off from ICO participants on the first day, and with a semi bearish market sentiment atm, I don't think we'll be too far from 1,5b FDV. But as the odds indicates (40c), it's not a sure win :)

[Novig @Novig]

Shipper is IN STUDIO on Inside Prediction Markets

@ShipTheJustice joins @BigBuckHunterrr & @Flupnolide

0:00 The Soldier Who Bet $400K on Maduro
2:30 Trump Calls the World a Casino
3:00 A Major Platform Lobbies the CFTC
5:05 Introducing Shipper (@Ship_the_Justice)
6:00 From NZ Bookmaker to Full-Time Sharp
14:00 Getting Picked Off on Injury News
20:00 How Sharps Approach Prediction Markets
28:00 The Viral Half Million Contract Order
38:00 How Much of His PNL Is on PMs
48:27 The Most Expensive Lesson Shipper Has Learned

[Chris @Flupnolide]

This is an excellent and fair article. Isaac used a little click baity headline, but he does admit that PMs are more “fair” and better for the consumer than sportsbooks. It’s important to acknowledge the majority of what Isaac is saying is truthful even if some are slightly exaggerated. Well done. If only you could play poker as well as you wrote.