When the market turns like this, there’s usually a pretty straightforward playbook for the aftermath.
1) Market bleeds out and MMs are offline and start refilling by first taking out big spot and perp arbs on assets.
2) Once exchanges and API feeds are back online, market makers and big traders start biting on big orders to bring the market back to equilibrium.
This is met with liquidation orders being processed. Liquidation orders are processed at the top of the exchange order queue so it’s very juicy to pick off if you have balance sheet.
Given the size of this liquidation (~$25-$40bn) it will take a while to chew through this.
3) Once dealers fill long they will start unwinding spot and perp when the market is back to equilibrium. This is when the market hits a local maxima and the Dalai Lama chart starts hitting.
Some assets that have tighter supply will look better than others.
4) Dealers unwind over the next 24-72 hours depending on the liquidations and the market absorption. This is generally harder on weekends because no ETFs.
5) Market finds a natural floor and ceiling and starts a new anchor
Note: this is assuming that the market’s headline risk has mostly subsided. In the case this isn’t true, there is a lot more room for pain depending on leverage ratios.
This is a trader’s market for the time being.
Good luck and good night 💤
@Tradermayne Great stream, was a great listen while zenning out in the sauna, reflecting on the day
I hope people take your advice to touch grass and reset
🚨BREAKING: Crypto liquidations soar to $9.4 BILLION in 24 hours – the LARGEST single-day event ever.
Bigger than LUNA. Bigger than COVID. Bigger than FTX.
We just witnessed history.