Case in point
The strongest narratives last around 3 months, but most do last a few weeks or even less.
A very strong coin will get back up after 1 month or relief, for example $SOL underperformed BTC in Jan-Feb and then pumped in March
When a coin reaches close to $20bn FDV, the r/r of your long dramatically decreases
Look at the local top FDV of a few s-tier coins :
$STRK : $26bn
$ARB : $24bn
$APT : $22bn
$TIA : $21bn
$SUI : $21bn
$OP : $21bn
Even the tops of $APE and $GMT back in 2022 were $26bn and $24bn
While the minnows were selling their coins
Larger players entered aggressively at market on this up move
Very interesting insights to be gleaned when you stat to aggregate delta by order lot
#BTC
if we are in strong bullish trend, the lows set by ~700M in long liquidations typically wont get broken in short term bc its unlikely that you will have that much forced selling again soon w/ out OI building up first - esp if strong spot bid persists
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Here's the result of two recent CPI's and the accompanying data.
If CPI comes in "cooler" / lower than forecast = short-term pump.
If CPI comes in "hot" / higher than forecast = short-term dump.
Sometimes the moves have legs, sometimes not. This is more to help you w/ lingo.
When $BTC is actually bullish, you usually get one chance to buy a dip (prob right now from the FUD), and local support levels hold. You don't get major sweeps of liquidity or retests like 31.5K retest etc. Price SHOULD hold around here if bullish (in my strong opinion).
This week, the "MA compressions" which I teach in the Haven and use as a signal for volatility to time continuations/reversals worked even better than usual
When these MAs tighten you know it's time.
They prevent you from entering too early in the consolidation and get chopped.