Beginner Mistakes That Are Bleeding Most New LP Farmers on Polymarket
LP rewards are gonna weigh heavy on the future distributions, but newcomers are torching their deposits left and right chasing them
here’s exactly what’s wrecking beginners:
1. Jumping into brand new markets
small competition and fat reward pool drop and they FOMO in immediately
reality: probabilities aren’t set yet, prices are full chaos, orders fill instantly and you eat the full mispricing
2. Farming esports markets without knowing the games
biggest rewards available, but highest risk
spreads get paper thin. One tiny momentum swing and your order fills 99% of the time right before it reverses on you
3. Chasing "easy" low-competition markets with huge spreads outside the reward zone
looks like chill farming with no competition
truth: a small group is running both sides. They pull out and you’re trapped. Can’t exit at breakeven because the real spread is brutal
What actually works:
> medium competition markets
> tight spreads all the way down
> low volatility
slower grind, but you don’t get randomly rekt - farm smart or don’t farm
what’s one LP mistake you’ve made or seen on Polymarket?
drop ur advice below
Why will liquidity rewards be a critical factor in $POLY distribution?
Liquidity providers are incredibly important to the project’s growth, and LP rewards reflect their actual contribution
Anyone can trade, but not everyone can act as a market maker and provide liquidity to the markets
Just compare the numbers:
> total number of traders - over 2.7m
> avg number of active addresses per month - 320k
> total number of users with LP Rewards - just 146k
If that still seems like a lot to you, only about 30k have earned more than $10
Polymarket is expanding every day, with the number of traders and markets growing rapidly, and it's the liquidity providers who are beginning to play a crucial role
Many people understand this, but they lose a lot of money trying to profit from providing liquidity
This process has become much more complicated than it was in the early days, and you can see that in my earnings chart
That’s why I don’t think this should be your main focus, but rather an extra source of earnings for your contribution and trading
Next time, I’ll tell you about the main mistakes I’ve encountered while farming LP Rewards
@KyleDeWriter I had a situation where I entered a trade with a probability of about 60c, then it dropped to 1–2c, and then shot back up to 100c
all of this happened in just a couple of hours
@klimonchain the rule worked perfectly here: never trade against the whales
I really hope Polymarket will resolve this issue and we won't see any more cases like this
This case will remain fresh in the minds of many Polymarket traders for a long time
first, I feel very sorry for this guy who was robbed
second, I completely agree with all the arguments he made in his post
the rules were clear and transparent, and Yes Holders were supposed to win 100 out of 100 times
I genuinely love this platform, and I’ve made about 1000 predictions so far which I consider a significant achievement, but cases like this are bound to be disappointing
Polymarket needs to change its resolution system, refine the rules to perfection, and enforce them strictly
otherwise, cases like this will keep happening
the problem is that Polymarket has become a platform not for everyone, but for whales who, in order to save their funds, completely flip the most obvious market outcome in their favor
afterward, all these whales come to the replies and start saying that yes, it’s unfair, how sorry they are, and all that sort of thing, even though just yesterday they were foaming at the mouth arguing that it was definitely NO, citing thin air
it makes you wonder which direction we’re heading in, and as a retail trader, I don’t really like it
many whales argued that the market was supposed to be closed by June 1 and that information received on June 1 should not be taken into account
but in reality:
> the rules do not mention the announcement, only the fact of the sale
> the market was supposed to remain open until July 1, and there was a dispute (which, moreover, was justified)
> the information was confirmed by numerous authoritative sources
> an onchain transaction was even found, which serves as confirmation
@willo2_Poly i'm so sorry, man
the rules were completely transparent, and Y holders should have won this without any trouble, but the whales banded together again to protect their money
There was absolutely no reason for this MicroStrategy market to close as a NO
but the whales protected their bags once again, while retail traders lost millions yet again
by the rules, YES should have won hands down, but apparently Polymarket has a different opinion
I'm disappointed
MicroStrategy sold 32 BTC at the end of May, but Polymarket still puts the probability of this event at 70%
the reports have already been published and the data is known
is this an easy 30% profit off other traders’ doubts, or a trap with a sensational headline?
let's figure this out
the market has already risen from 10% to 80% and dropped back to 70%
the largest NO holders continue to accumulate their positions:
> strike123 holds over $350k in NO shares with an open loss of $84k
> aenews2 is also continuing to buy NO shares from the dip
but the other 2 markets with later dates have already been resolved as 100%
this market will resolve to "Yes" if MicroStrategy sells any of its Bitcoin by 11:59 PM ET on the date specified in the title
the rules specifically refer to the actual sale by the specified date, not to announcements
theoretically, there is no reason to resolve this market as NO, but as long as UMA is managing the resolution, it is worth being extremely cautious
my choice is holding YES before the resolution
@KyleDeWriter come on, even the clarification itself sounds like a joke
I’ll never accept this outcome because it’s absurd.
market rules clearly governed it, but many whales started bonding this market, which led to all this incomprehensible nonsense
> all major media outlets have confirmed the sale during the specified period
> the data can be verified in the report
> there is no mention of the announcement in the market rules
are we building a prediction market for everyone, or just for whales?
@0xd1namit@Poly_Helper the biggest crime is coming
whales will once again defend their bags, even though the rules clearly state that there is only one correct outcome here - YES
@KyleDeWriter Polymarket is for everyone, not just the big players who can manipulate the market to their own advantage and line their own pockets
if the decision on this market is NO, I’m out