CryptoFiend🦇🔊

“And those who were seen dancing were thought to be insane by those who could not hear the music”

-Friedrich Nietzsche

[CryptoFiend🦇🔊 @CryptoFiend373]

@Kev_Capital_TA That's because this is more likely a mid cycle correction for our current bull run that started in 2019. We haven't had a parabolic blowoff top on BTC since our 2017 cycle top.

[CryptoFiend🦇🔊 @CryptoFiend373]

@KillaXBT Funny part is that healthy LTF drawdowns precede some of the best HTF moves.

[CryptoFiend🦇🔊 @CryptoFiend373]

@Nicholasedxc @Sykodelic_ How is this delusional? We pulled the same move from 1.8k to 3.5k in less than 3 months a year ago and it went on to break ATH.

[Oz @AskCryptoWealth]

When people realise this was a mid cycle correction it’ll be too late..

And when it stops earlier than the perceived next 4 year cycle top they will be doubly shocked 😳

[CryptoFiend🦇🔊 @CryptoFiend373]

@DonnyDicey Hop on some osrs fr

[CryptoFiend🦇🔊 @CryptoFiend373]

@CredibleCrypto Sounds like a good idea to me.

[CryptoFiend🦇🔊 @CryptoFiend373]

@KillaXBT The type of post you see before a generational run on OTHERS.

[CryptoFiend🦇🔊 @CryptoFiend373]

@aroogle Ngl bro if you're debating on selling here your thesis must not have been that strong in the first place. Why are you considering dumping in a HTF accumulation zone just because you're salty about price action? Imo just chill and allocate new capital elsewhere if it bothers you.

[CryptoFiend🦇🔊 @CryptoFiend373]

@Stefan_B_Trades @JackMarketMind Would your bias not tell you whether you're more likely to breakout of or breadown from the range instead of deviate though? I guess it's irrelevant if you deem the probability of staying within the range to be greater anyways?

[CryptoFiend🦇🔊 @CryptoFiend373]

@CredibleCrypto Cred, is there a way we can estimate the likelyhood of a reclaim of ATHs on the CRV/ETH and CVX/ETH pairings?

[CryptoFiend🦇🔊 @CryptoFiend373]

@CredibleCrypto @Krusty_spaces Also I think it should be reiterated that BTC dominance can still meaningfully fall before the top during the later stages of the final leg up. It's not like BTC.D can only fall when BTC peaks. It's just that it's the most aggressive drop after it peaks.

[CryptoFiend🦇🔊 @CryptoFiend373]

@escape2defi Something else interesting to note that I just checked:
If CRV and CVX reclaim their prior ATH on their respective ETH pairings while ETH is exactly $20k, they would be $40 and $360 respectively.

[CryptoFiend🦇🔊 @CryptoFiend373]

@escape2defi I'd like to think $20 CRV implies quite a bit higher than $100 CVX, as a very rough baseline estimate $180-200 ($20 CRV is nearly 3x prior ATH, $100 CVX is like 1.66x), and so $40 CRV would imply nearly $400 CVX in that case.

[CrediBULL Crypto @CredibleCrypto]

Ethereum to $20,000+.

If you're holding ANY alt-coins, this video is probably the single most important piece of content you can watch right now,

The focus is on $ETH, but understanding the implications of what is being said here is important because it will affect the ENTIRE alt-coin market as a whole.

There is a lot here, but stick through it till the end and I know you will not be disappointed, trust me.

Likes/shares appreciated, enjoy! 👇

https://t.co/EPRuD2Cibf

[CryptoFiend🦇🔊 @CryptoFiend373]

@DukeBlade @MichaelXBT BTC dominance usually starts breaking down on the larger moves towards the end of the cycle, and keeps going down after BTC peaks and begins its descent. Price action at current levels is more indicative of a large correction before further expansion, not a prolonged bottom.

[CryptoFiend🦇🔊 @CryptoFiend373]

@CredibleCrypto @dedraadnl I can only imagine where CVX might be as well if CRV ever hits $40. Been using a 1 : 10 ratio as a super basic baseline estimate ($10 CRV implies $100 CVX, etc.).

[CryptoFiend🦇🔊 @CryptoFiend373]

@CredibleCrypto Would sub for sure

[CryptoFiend🦇🔊 @CryptoFiend373]

@junky4783837 @CredibleCrypto @newfinance24 You're probably thinking of CRV.

[CrediBULL Crypto @CredibleCrypto]

The post in the quoted tweet was from when Bitcoin was trading at ~$27,000, before our run to 100k+.

At the time, many were adamant that due to the "4 year halving cycle" we would not see new all time highs (65k+) until AFTER the halving in April of '24.

The consensus at the time was that we should expect chop/sideways action until the halving, and then a post-halving run up to new all time highs after (like "every time before").

At the time I was confident we would see new all time highs SOONER than most were expecting, that the "5th wave" to 100k+ would occur BEFORE the halving, not after.

Part of the reason for this was market structure based, but I also noted that LTHS (long term holder supply) had reached record levels at 70+%, and I explained why this would lead to a price rise higher and faster than most were expecting.

Fast forward a few months and the aggressive/impulsive rise was well under way leading to new all time highs BEFORE the halving leaving many in disbelief during the rise along the way.

Today, LTHS has hit NEW record highs, with 16.6M Bitcoin being HODL'd, accounting for nearly ~80% of total supply. If we consider that around 1M Bitcoin have yet to be mined, this 16.6M figure amounts to around ~83% of all circulating Bitcoin. Again, the HIGHEST recorded amount of Bitcoin being HODL'd in history.

This is very similar to the situation that we had at 27k- panic sellers had dumped all they could from the prior highs at 65k, forced sellers sold all that they could, a new cohort of buyers accumulated all that dumped Bitcoin, and Bitcoin supply became the most constrained it had ever been before.

This meant that when buyers did finally actively step in, we shot back up to prior ATH much faster than most were expecting.

There is no doubt in my mind that we are preparing for something similar now.

This does not mean we can't go lower, theoretically if we were to get another LUNA/3AC situation where a portion of these HODL'ers become forced sellers more supply could technically come onto the market- but this would be an exception to the rule (HODL'ers typically sell into price rises, not dips) not something we would expect is most probable but rather least likely. And even if this were to occur- it would only just delay the inevitable rise, the same way our breakdown from 30k in 2022 due to forced selling from LUNA/3AC/FTX did not derail (but only delayed) the rise to 100k+.

Ultimately, a secular (think 5-10 year) bear market does not occur when 80% of supply is being diamond-handed. It occurs when long term HODL'ers have sold much of their supply to short term speculators (typically as price goes parabolic) who panic sell (rather than buy) to other "weak hands" as price collapses in on itself- leading to a long, drawn out "death spiral" after which point long term holders once again step in at a deep discount to absorb all the supply they sold much, much higher.

In other words, odds are that a bottom is closer than most think, and barring a black swan event that forces the hands of some HODL'ers, price will recover faster from this point than most are expecting- just like we saw in '23/'24 when conditions were similar.

$BTC

[CryptoFiend🦇🔊 @CryptoFiend373]

@CredibleCrypto I would assume they increase now that we're less than 5% inflation rate, but I guess my question is moreso directed at the years of inflation we had prior and how you specify to take a more conservative estimate of $2 for hbar now for this reason.

[CryptoFiend🦇🔊 @CryptoFiend373]

@CredibleCrypto Cred, given that how far we expand past ATH on CRV is relative to the time spent accumulating as well as the circulating supply, do our post ATH price targets increase or decrease over time with current inflation rate in mind? Thanks.