what a nice week, publicly shorting $BTC for 6R, then switching long to catch a 5% increase (and more loading) on $ETH
⚡️⚡️
thanks for the support 🫶🏻, a like and RT would be appreciated on my content if you find it helpful
$TAO [SPOT UPDATE]🎯
Bottom in?
Keep an eye out for a MTF BOS. There is no point getting bullish just yet. It's very important to stay reasonable with your gains in the next bullish leg.
Before and after results speak! Well done to those who scaled in at the bullish KL on TAO 🥂👏
$ETH macro update
1930/1800 is the level i'm interested in trading if given.... confluence between the cycle golden pocket + VAH 22-23'
not holding that level would get our eyes lower towards the 1200's, but for now big support at those levels marked
backside interested only upom reclaim 2400/2250
$TAO one of the coins where you don't want to miss out on the mean reversion....
a liquidity move below 160's to print a momentary bottom somewhere there would be of interest
#TAOBTC tells us that a bigger scale move is yet to come in 2026....
$DASH
"update"
After my analysis on DASH on November 25, it dropped by +20%.
I believe the correction will end around $43.50, and the uptrend will begin from there.
https://t.co/X6M4KSB6eA
$USDT.D, a Thesis and potential scenario.
I like this as a favourite scenario, includes a Bullish December, a +$100k $BTC...
A potential major, macro top opportunity to short on 22nd December for a intra-month position, and a powerful rally on 11th December into the highs.
This potential scenario front runs entirely $72k liquidity pocket for the next 2 months, that most traders are waiting on for confirmations and will include a lot of non-action, chop days throughout January, lacking major moves with a steady bleed.
For $BTC, I'm looking for a rejection over the coming days, probabilistically $93k BTC before a pullback to $88k region, perhaps $85k-$86k depending on new liquidity, that low potentially to be put in 4th-5th December.
A rough thesis, 93.8-87-104-67
I'm seeing a split of interpretation of what Moneytaur means by "🇨🇳NY'26 🔼side 93/07" in the MT community. Some ppl seem to think he means this will be the top. In what world does "upside" mean "top"? It's driving me mildly bananas, so lets analyze it...
Look at the clues Moneytaur has been dropping:
🧩- "🇨🇳NY'26 🔼side 93/07"
(93% probability of upside on Chinese New Year 2026, which is in late Feb. Specifically, CNY is on Feb 17th, but the festival celebrations lasts for 2 weeks after that. If you think back to when MT was dropping clues about the Titanic narrative when he said "71/29", well he later explicitly told us that it meant "71% probability for a bullish reversal". So 93/07 means 93% probability of bullish reversal. Still don't believe it? He literally says "upside" in the post too!)
🧩- "The kangaroo is still in the house."
(he said this right after the 10/10 crash. It's a reference to "kangaroo market", which means it'll bounce between range highs & lows, like ping-pong, not a classic bull or bear market)
🧩- "Fastest altcoins crash of all time in 2025." (arguably happened on Oct 10th ✅)
"Fastest altcoins pump of all time in 2026."
(yet to happen, could align with CNY pump ⌛)
🧩- "Less than 1,000 coins in the market by late 2026. The purge will come."
(implying a massive crash will come by late 2026. He has also referenced an eventual "coup de grâce" many times over the past 2 years)
🧩- "Near perfect replica in the first half of 2026."
(he said this straight after the 10/10 scam wick / crash, implying that that PA will repeat. What if it repeats but as a larger fractal?)
(I'll put links to all these tweets in the thread below)
Now obviously MT doesn't have a crystal ball, and it's all just probabilities and educated guessing, but his track record is pretty damn great, so decoding him is worthwhile, and fading him is high-risk.
If we put all those pieces together, a bigger picture starts to emerge...
Here's the scenario i have playing in my head right now:
1) 🏓 Bounce around in big range for a few months until CNY pump, with sentiment always flipping from "omg altseason!" when it gets to range highs and "omg bear market!" when it gets to range lows, over and over)
2) 💥 Blow off top from CNY'26, but it's very fast and nobody catches it (like the scam wick of 10/10 but in reverse). Exchanges freeze as they allow whales to sell their final bags. BTC maybe tops out at 135k - 140k.
3) 🩸 Biblical crash after that. Total crypto purge. Only 1000 altcoins remain (MT's preciction).
🤷♂️ Maybe something like this:
Moneytaur study blueprint 🗺️
The process I used to go from not knowing what an order block is to pulling cash from the crypto markets in under 6 months using @Moneytaur_ concepts.
Proof of performance, past 120 days👇
Start date: 09/03/2025 https://t.co/YFgNq5yJ9N
Requirements:
- A PC/laptop
- Wifi
- A basic understanding of trading. ( What candlesticks are, how to actually place trades , etc )
- A free mind
- Time or the ability to free up time.
Starting:
- Structure and routine
- Stick to that routine + Pre mortem plan.
- Notion / Obsidian setup.
The first thing you need to create is a clear routine moulded around how you intend to approach this very large and complex task. This will not be linear and you will naturally adapt it as you progress but especially in the beginning some resemblance of structure each day is vital.
This is an individual process but it is important to understand from the beginning that this will require a majority of your free time assuming you work a full time Job or study as a student. For me in the beginning this looked like:
- Wake up at 6:30.
- Shower
- Study/work for 1h 45m before leaving for work.
- 09:00 -> 17:00 work
- 17:30 Exercise / Train
- Eat
- 19:00 resume study/work
- 22:30 Start to wind down and get ready to sleep.
It changed several times over the months and especially now I am full time but this is irrelevant, the only thing that matters is sticking with what you choose.
Whatever your own routine may look like, it is important to understand it will inevitably require sacrifice.
---
The next thing once you have established a draft framework of your routine is ensuring you will actually stick to that routine. Something I implemented which I found particularly beneficial was the concept of a Pre-Mortem plan. This involves creating several scenarios of a future in which you have failed and working backwards from each of these to find where it went wrong. Here is a video which explains it fully: https://t.co/QGPyfrgrPK
When I did this I came up with 3 scenarios as well as prevention and cure for each. In the 6 months that followed each scenario presented at some point but I was able to catch them early due to having done this.
The last thing is to not over complicate this, don't hyper focus on systems and loose momentum optimizing each detail. Just ensure you do the fucking work.
I was a little guilty of the above at times, trying to craft the perfect routine. In reality the person who just gets up, drinks too much coffee and works his ass off out performs the workflow perfectionist who visualizes and repeats affirmations, any day of the week.
---
Next you need somewhere to store your notes, journal your trades and build your knowledge.
For me this was Obsidian but I have also used Notion before and it is an equally viable option. Whichever one of these you choose be warned you will inevitably want to bang your head against a wall trying to use them for the first few days, but they will both click pretty quick and are 100% better options the word document or paper alternative.
Here is my full obsidian setup tutorial: https://t.co/7sdsOTQEyE
Here is a link to @studentoffew 's notion Journal: https://t.co/nfFCqFnpsX
Here is how I create "Meta-Notes" using obsidian: https://t.co/WKmYwwWmJu
The process:
- How I did it.
- How I would do it if doing it again.
Now I did things the "hard way" and manually worked my way back through each of MT's tweets starting in 2021, reading every one and logging those that I felt where relevant. You can see in my first post: https://t.co/YFgNq5yJ9N the very first system I used to do this. I quickly adapted though after about a week and focused less on just logging each relevant tweet but trying to find and focusing on those which contained the most information. There where a lot of charts I looked at then skipped over because especially at the start of his timeline they contained little useful information and my time was better spent finding those where there was something to decode. Now this does not mean skip out on "work" just use your time efficiently.
--
If however if I was to start from the beginning again with the goal of levelling up technical understanding as quickly as possible I would take a different approach. To start with I would familiarise myself with all relevant SMC concepts, I have linked the best free recourses for this below 👇
@CryptoChase02 beginner friendly index: https://t.co/j0IDFJzlN1
@barnc0re's "The Moneytaur Way" series: https://t.co/SoHcnsNJcg
@materagian's Trading bootcamp playlist: https://t.co/jdtTOWHEEg
Following this I would then work through all of Taur's subscription posts working backwards, recreating his charts and taking notes on his logic. The subscription feed has the highest value density and least noise.
Video example of my notes from his subscription posts 👇:
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Okay so now once you have a basic understanding of concepts and can re-recreate them on charts of your own it is time to put this in to practice. The next step is vigorous backtesting, you can use the trading view tool but I think trade Zella offers a more use friendly option if you pay for the subscription. Especially as it allows you to change timeframes without skipping ahead to candle close time of the timeframe you change too ( like Trading view does )
*my only note would be that their LTF/Micro TF data feed with be different to brokerage charts you will use on Trading view, to start with though you should not be going low enough that this is an issue.
When you backtest in this context, treat it like real trading. That means journal and logging like you would if real cash was on the line. Take time, do not rush and focus on quality.
Stick to BTC, ETH, Major FX pairs or indices as these assets are less reliant on confluence, backtesting a shitcoin is near useless as whether levels work or not will be highly dependent on Majors PA. Go on HTF, scroll back a couple years and try not too look at chart while doing so and then begin. Start with HTF analysis and work down to 2H or wherever you feel comfortable, chart it fully and then identify setups. Make rough notes / plans and then press play, execute the setups as they hit, log and journal trade management as well as observations and key notes. It is very important to not cheat when you do this, do not skip back and adjust your stoploss because it hit by 0.1%, do not skip back and adjust plan because you missed a block and your TP got frontrun. Instead these are the things you journal, embrace these mistakes because they are the cheapest mistakes you are going to make.
Grind this, do it for hours, put some music on and enjoy. To start with focus on HTF's, as you get better and start netting $ on paper you can drop the timeframes and increase the difficulty. HTF = Normal, MTF = Medium, LTF = Hard. Even if you do not intend to day trade, learning how to read the lower TF's that force you to think faster, harder and prepare you for lower win rates / loss streaks can greatly improve your ability on higher TF's.
While you are doing this as you start to have concepts click you now want to build up your real trading experience, take a sum of money that you care about but will be okay loosing and dedicate this to live trading. Start taking real trades and expect net losses in the beginning. This is where you will make you 2nd cheapest mistakes. This is also where you can begin to learn about your psychology. You may encounter some elements already in backtesting but the real market is where true colours really start to show.
Mental issues are inevitable and part of the game, get used to them and start working to identify and fix them. Reading and applying books like Trading in the Zone and Mental Game of Trading are important and will help a lot but there is no easy fix, for some stuff you I believe you just have to get used to it and it goes away with experience. Losses suck at the beginning but after you loose 100 times you starting getting pretty numb to it, same goes for the winners.
To accelerate the learning process, build connections and get advice there is also always the option of private groups, while I never personally chose this route and committed to learning everything through my own endeavours there is no denying that having nearly all the information you need structured and compiled in one place is valuable and can save time. Beyond this having access to real time thoughts and opinions of profitable traders can accelerate performance, however it carries the risk of being a double edged sword if not used properly, if relying on it like a crutch and using it as a substitute for real work you will not succeed. With that said if you take it for what it is, a learning opportunity then I believe it can be very beneficial. I am not a member of, nor affiliated with any paid group.
There are now many options available within the community, all run by different people with different styles, tailored to different needs. If I was to make a recommendation though, as a non-member, it would be @Albert_618 & Co's 618'ers simply due to the diversity in styles of the traders running it and results I have seen from members I know personally.
It is important that as you start to trade with real capital you reduce noise in your social feeds or eliminate it all together. You do not need 5 different opinions, you also do not need 2 people telling you the same thing in their own way so you feel re-assured. What you do need is to develop your independent thinking as a trader and be comfortable making different decisions to others, even traders ahead of yourself if it fits with your system or understanding of market. Taur here is perhaps an exception as this is who you are learning from but down the line a real test of your own ability and independence will be being able to stick with your own plan even when it differs from his. Don't get me wrong, counter trading him is retarded but you must learn to adapt his gift to your own style. This will make sense at some point.
The next stage is taking your understanding of specific concepts to higher level as you simultaneously snowball experience. Look back through your journal and review where you lost money and made money, do not over extrapolate from a small sample but start to take notes and observe if trends in performance emerge. This is the beginning of the transition to self reliance, you now understand the strategy but must learn for yourself when and where it works.
Here you can also learn more nuanced secondary concepts such as VSA, orderflow etc and add these to your game where appropriate. Do NOT get lost in the sauce though and remember mastery of basics is key. IMO a big focus should be understanding correlation thoroughly but especially on HTF's this is the most important thing and what triggers the majority of large swings where most of your cash will be made and losses recovered.
Some people will disagree with me here but IMO you should also not be *focusing* on Odd TF's. These are secondary at best and most people overweight their significance leading to avoidable losses while wondering why price did not care about their 327minute Breaker Block which they think is the key to the market. Study Taurs feed and take note of how he mostly uses: 3M, 1M, 3W, 2W, 1W, 5D, 4D, 3D, 2D, 1D, 12H, 8H, 6H, 4H, 2H, 1H, 30m, 15m + micro time frames.
The only thing left is time and repetition, you must show up each day and really do this, for months. Maybe you start to see result's, you catch your first key swing and where able to trade where others froze. Congratulations. Learn from these winners and repeat the actions. Find what assets work best for you, find your style, refine and grow.
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The last thing I will include is a short list of tools or links that can be helpful.
- Trading view tutorial: https://t.co/YduNlFTYXw
- Dictionary: https://t.co/668NUwodj2
- Market news Calendar: https://t.co/YE22AWAdKt
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Thank you too all those who have read this, I hope this has been helpful for the beginners who want to start but are just not sure how. 🫶
Don't just bookmark this and move on, start 🙃
2 patterns that matter which show market maker's true intentions:
1) head & shoulders (and inverse)
2) three drives pattern
Everything else, is to keep retail blind from the truth on the charts (whales footprints)
EW is not useless, and even though is more powerful than lagging indicators, is nowhere close how powerful these 2 are.
Ücretsiz indikatör;
Daha önceden lisans ile kullanıma açılan iki indikatörümü ücretsiz kullanıma açtım. kullanmak isteyenler aşağıdaki linki okusunlar.
Nagants Block V2 linki;
https://t.co/2IRa0MugTi
İzci Coin indicatör linki
https://t.co/l7EuxHQS6x
Different magnitudes of events are needed for different markets
MT:
"If it's small caps, a "hack" will do.
If it's Bitcoin, FUD as we're seeing this week will do.
If it's the Stock market and currencies, events like a Pandemic or War will do.
The stronger the financial instrument, the bigger the "event" must be (whether is to pump it or dump it)"
$BTC, my favourite scenario moving forward; the coup' de grace. Currently this projection aligns nicely with a lot of data and pattern probabilities.
Will come back to this post in time and update, but scenario has a 70/30 probability.
When you feel you will make a lot of $ by holding, it is close to the top. When you feel you will lose all your $ by holding, it is close to the bottom.
Your own fear & greed emotions are two of the most powerful indicators you will ever find.
My 4 Fibonacci settings: (fast recap)
👁️Complete (the setting I use the most):
1
0.236
0.382
0.5
0.618
0.705
0.786
0
1.272
1.454
1.618
👁️ Negative (the setting I use in confluence with the 1.272/1.454/1.618):
- 0.5
- 0.618
- 0.705
- 0.786
The -0.5 & -0.618 are pretty much aligned with the 1.454 & 1.618 -> extra confluence together.
👁️ OTE (Optimal trading entry, used with confluence coming from OBs/HOBs):
0
1
- 1
- 0.62
- 0.27
0.62
0.705
0.79
👁️ Percentages (the one I use for optimal retracement levels)
100%
88.60%
78.60%
70.50%
61.80%
50.00%
38.20%
23.60%
0%
Save each setting on your TV with these different names so you'll be able to quickly switch from one to another when you're charting.
Almost everything you need.