Crypto is Finance + Social.
We've mostly solved the finance part. TradFi on crypto rails is accelerating fast. But we haven't cracked the social part, which baffles me because social is crypto's biggest unique feature and we all know it.
It's why we stay in this space despite better opportunities in AI and equities. Why we buy coins just because some CT guy we respect shilled it. The idea of aping together is uniquely crypto - it makes the W more glorious and the L less painful.
Yet despite all the signs pointing to this, no product has captured this zeitgeist and worse, everyone has already written off experiments in this sector as doomed.
Instead we're busy trying to out-Robinhood Robinhood when we're ignoring the biggest opportunity staring us in the face: social-first finance.
The first person to build this won't just conquer crypto- they'll own the future of finance and make crypto the envy of the world again.
This whole “community is the product” mantra we chant endlessly came about during the NFT era.
Before then, we just built cool products and communities naturally followed.
Even after NFTs died, we forgot that products solving real problems should be the only reason we build.
The $NEAR turnaround is a great case study in building for actual use cases instead of a die-hard community.
In other words, community is very overrated.
Open Sourcing Centaur: Multiplayer, self-hosted, secure agents for Slack.
Centaur has been transforming how @paradigm and @tempo invest, build and research.
Now you can run it yourself on infrastructure you control. Instructions below.
Now's the best time to look at problems outside crypto and see how blockchain can make them more efficient, instead of inventing crypto-native use cases from scratch and chasing the mythical "PMF".
Prediction markets pros and cons
Pros:
- PvE, not PvP
- Less about speed, more about being right
Cons:
- Hard to bootstrap liquidity
- Doesn't scale well
- Nearly impossible to hit 100x+
Solana Foundation will look back and realise Toly's political preaching did nothing but stroke his ego and create enemies.
The tipping point was trying to start a fight with Hyperliquid to create a David vs Goliath narrative, which only works if David has a chance. We're talking about the 40th ranked perp DEX trying to beat number 1.
A chain of bizarre marketing missteps from a team usually spot-on with marketing.
Hot take:
Toly's non-stop geopolitical takes for the past few months has done more damage to Solana than people think.
Phoenix could be 10x better than alternatives. Doesn't matter. People reject it not because Toly's takes suggest bad judgment, but because using the product feels like endorsing him as a person - irrational, but true.
When an audience finds you repulsive, everything you create becomes repulsive by association.
your uber driver has a thesis on tesla stock
your barber knows the fed is cutting
your cousin called bitcoin at 20K
none of them have a brokerage account
none of them understand options chains
none of them will ever use polymarket
but all of them would put $10 behind their opinion if it was one tap
this is what consumer looks like today
@MisterAccord Crypto ppl are funny because they're antisocial folks who love arguging and dunking on people for clout but deep down inside they also yearn to belong to a group
Crypto is Finance + Social.
We've mostly solved the finance part. TradFi on crypto rails is accelerating fast. But we haven't cracked the social part, which baffles me because social is crypto's biggest unique feature and we all know it.
It's why we stay in this space despite better opportunities in AI and equities. Why we buy coins just because some CT guy we respect shilled it. The idea of aping together is uniquely crypto - it makes the W more glorious and the L less painful.
Yet despite all the signs pointing to this, no product has captured this zeitgeist and worse, everyone has already written off experiments in this sector as doomed.
Instead we're busy trying to out-Robinhood Robinhood when we're ignoring the biggest opportunity staring us in the face: social-first finance.
The first person to build this won't just conquer crypto- they'll own the future of finance and make crypto the envy of the world again.
Something about the current state of prediction markets feels off.
Marketing-wise, they're everywhere. But do you know anyone trading massive volume on them like they would on perps or memecoins?
Because I sure don't.
That said, I like PMs as a category. I just think vanilla prediction markets like Kalshi and Polymarket are pretty bland and we've barely scratched the surface of what's actually interesting.
Branding your product as an <insert L1> app feels like suicide in 2026.
You immediately limit yourself to a crypto-only crowd half of whom will write you off because they hate your L1 for silly tribalist reasons.
Better to abstract the blockchain away and don't mention crypto at all (Polymarket).
Blockchain is just a backend at the end of the day. Why we continue marketing our product's backend in this day in age is baffling.
Hot take:
Toly's non-stop geopolitical takes for the past few months has done more damage to Solana than people think.
Phoenix could be 10x better than alternatives. Doesn't matter. People reject it not because Toly's takes suggest bad judgment, but because using the product feels like endorsing him as a person - irrational, but true.
When an audience finds you repulsive, everything you create becomes repulsive by association.
the next social network is a prediction market where your feed is ranked by accuracy not engagement. the person who is right 80% of the time gets seen while the person who is loud gets buried