Luis Fraga - ₿ -

Crypto investor since 2017 · Barcelona

Built @NeverHodlHQ · Don't Trust. Verify

[Luis Fraga - ₿ - @cryptofraga]

SpaceX traded more volume than Bitcoin. $49.88B vs $22.71B. AI tokens explode. NHCI Day 18 BOTTOM. https://t.co/aeIvnWqQdQ a través de @NeverHodlHQ

[Luis Fraga - ₿ - @cryptofraga]

@10xResearch @BITofficial_EN The "final low" question is the only one that matters. F&G stuck at fear for a week is doing the work. Bottoms rarely print on one capitulation candle, they grind. A bounce off fear is normal, but the 200-week MA holding is what tells you if it's structural or just relief.

[Luis Fraga - ₿ - @cryptofraga]

@marvellousdefi The 845K BTC line is the detail that breaks the panic narrative. Everyone's reading the drawdown candle, almost nobody's reading the accumulation print underneath it. On-chain rarely matches the timeline the headlines are selling. Good breakdown.

[Luis Fraga - ₿ - @cryptofraga]

@mikeneder "Crypto winter by textbook definition" is fair, but textbooks describe what already happened. The wick into the 200-week is historically where the label flips from "winter" to "the part nobody screenshots a year later."

[Luis Fraga - ₿ - @cryptofraga]

Hoy en cripto: BTC testeando la media de 200 semanas. Fear & Greed en 12. Todos gritando "invierno cripto".

Y al mismo tiempo, MicroStrategy soltando 101M más. 845.256 BTC en balance.

O saben algo que el resto no quiere ver, o tienen un problema serio. "Comprar cuando todos venden" rara vez es casualidad.

El ruido grita. El balance susurra.

[Luis Fraga - ₿ - @cryptofraga]

El gráfico que casi nadie mira en verde: el de las emociones. BTC tocando la media de 200 semanas no es la señal. La señal es tocarla con el miedo en 12 clavado una semana entera y nadie queriendo ni abrir la app. Precio en suelo + sentimiento capitulado. Esa foto se repite cada ciclo.

[VirtualBacon @virtualbacon]

Bitcoin is sitting right on the 200-week moving average, around $61,300. I want to be precise about why that matters, because most people quote the wrong line.

The 200-week simple moving average, not the exponential one, has marked the cycle bottom in 2015, in 2018 and in 2022. Every major bear in bitcoin's history has bottomed at or just below this line and then turned. It is the closest thing the asset has to a structural floor, because it represents roughly four years of average price, which is one full cycle. We are testing it right now, and bitcoin has already lost the 50-week moving average on weekly closes, which is the line that historically separates a bull market from a bear market. So the structure is bearish, and we are in the part of the cycle where you find out who actually had a plan.

The thing I keep repeating, because it is the thing people get wrong, is that this crash is macro, not crypto. There is no FTX here, no Luna, no single blowup to point at. What happened is the Fed pivoted to hiking, the hottest CPI in three years landed, December hike odds sit near 70%, and nobody serious, not Nomura, not Morgan Stanley, not JPMorgan, is pricing cuts for 2026. A hiking cycle does not change bitcoin's bear structure. The 200-week bottom and the roughly twelve-month bear clock still apply. What the regime changes is the depth. Hawkish macro means the drawdown can go deeper than a clean cycle would suggest before it finds the floor.

So here are the two lanes I'm watching. The bull lane: bitcoin holds $61K, reclaims $69K which was prior-cycle resistance, then $76K as the measured move, then $87K which is the 200-day average. The bear lane: it loses $61K on a weekly close, and the next real floor is $53,600, which is the realized price, the on-chain average cost basis for the entire network. Below that, mid-$40s, which would be roughly 30% under the 200-week line, the same kind of overshoot 2022 produced.

I'm not trying to call the exact bottom, because precision is a trap. But there is a convergence I trust as a signal, and it has marked the last four bottoms: price at the realized cost basis around $53,600, the MVRV-Z score collapsing toward zero, and bitcoin trading about 16% below the 200-week line. When those three line up, that is the zone, historically. On-chain, supply in loss just passed supply in profit for the first time this cycle, with around 8 million coins underwater. That is pain, and pain is what the setup is made of.

None of those triggers are sentiment. They're levels. That's the whole point. In a bear market the edge isn't having a smarter opinion about where price goes. It's deciding your levels in advance and being willing to do nothing until price comes to them.

[Luis Fraga - ₿ - @cryptofraga]

@Cointelegraph "Canary in the macro coal mine" is a generous way of saying BTC sneezes 6 hours before equities catch the cold. The canary's been face down on the floor at Fear and Greed 12 for a week and the miners are still arguing about whether it's napping.

[Luis Fraga - ₿ - @cryptofraga]

@MerlijnTrader Clean framework, but the part nobody likes: stage 4 doesn't ring a bell. It feels like stage 3 forever. Everyone calling "buy zone" still secretly thinks they'll catch a lower wick. Real capitulation is when you stop posting the 4-stage chart and just close the app.

[Luis Fraga - ₿ - @cryptofraga]

@virtualbacon Solid distinction. The simple line printed 2015, 2018 and 2022. Worth adding: each of those bottoms also lined up with single digit Fear and Greed. We're at 12, stuck a full week. Price level plus capitulated sentiment is the combo, not either alone.

[MoneyRadar Crypto @MRadarCrypto]

🚨🇸🇻El Salvador vient de légaliser le hold-up fiscal le plus agressif du siècle. Et les paradis fiscaux traditionnels sont en train de mourir.

Le président Nayib Bukele a activé le décret 531 : il suffit désormais de passer seulement 90 jours par an sur place pour obtenir le statut de résident.

Les avantages pour la communauté crypto sont absolument délirants :

-0 % d'impôt sur le revenu d'origine étrangère.
-0 % de taxe sur les plus-values Bitcoin.
-0 % d'impôt sur la fortune ou les successions.

Pendant que l'Occident asphyxie ses entrepreneurs sous une bureaucratie confiscatoire, Bukele transforme un ancien pays ultra-dangereux en un hub sécurisé fiscal optimal et pour toute la famille, écoles internationnales, système de santé amélioré, plages, climat chaud .☀️

Le piège est pourtant immense. El Salvador n'hésitera pas à céder face au fisc de votre pays d'origine si vous ne coupez pas correctement vos attaches. Le paradis a un prix, et les administrations fiscales occidentales ne vous laisseront pas partir sans un combat féroce...

[Luis Fraga - ₿ - @cryptofraga]

Strategy holds 845,256 BTC. Still +$20B. But $53.5B in gains evaporated since ATH. The NHCI was at 75+ when BTC peaked. https://t.co/2o0xfC83XG a través de @NeverHodlHQ

[Luis Fraga - ₿ - @cryptofraga]

SpaceX IPO tomorrow. Everyone's watching the rocket. 🚀

SPCX $135 · $1.76T market cap · 4× oversubscribed.
Profit margin: -45%. Losses: $9.4B.

Meanwhile, Bitcoin is sitting at a historic cycle BOTTOM.
NHCI 26.2. F&G 12. Same signal as 2018, 2020, 2022.
3 for 3.

Rocket ships are exciting. Cycles are predictable.
Both can win. But only one is at the bottom right now.

📊 NHCI 26.2 BOTTOM | https://t.co/KFY3TeubaM

[Luis Fraga - ₿ - @cryptofraga]

Daily Market Brief — June 11 2026 | NHCI 27.4 (+1.30) | Fear & Greed 12 | PPI Today | SpaceX IPO Tomorrow https://t.co/7sbsmC8FVu a través de @NeverHodlHQ

[Luis Fraga - ₿ - @cryptofraga]

@benjamincowen The -50% from ATH framing is useful but the realized price context matters more imo. 50% of supply underwater at $53.6k changes the liquidation math completely compared to 2022.

[Luis Fraga - ₿ - @cryptofraga]

Para os que querem contexto histórico do que acontece nos extremos de medo — estive a documentar esses padrões em https://t.co/0wbL5gnQdE. O padrão repete-se mais do que as pessoas pensam.

[Luis Fraga - ₿ - @cryptofraga]

El Fear & Greed lleva días en Extreme Fear (12/100 hoy).

Todo el mundo esperando que caiga más.

El mercado rara vez te da lo que esperas cuando lo estás esperando.

No es consejo. Es historia.

[Luis Fraga - ₿ - @cryptofraga]

Daily Market Brief — June 10 2026 | NHCI 25.5 | Fear & Greed 8 | CPI Day | SpaceX IPO in 48h https://t.co/1CBga08eA9 a través de @NeverHodlHQ

[Luis Fraga - ₿ - @cryptofraga]

@cryptogoos Construir durante o bear é fácil de romantizar.

Fazer isso enquanto o portfolio derrete, o F&G marca 9 e todo mundo no seu feed está em pânico — aí é onde você descobre quem realmente gosta do que está fazendo.

[Luis Fraga - ₿ - @cryptofraga]

@TeoMercer "Weak enough to respect the bearish case, strong enough to not ignore the bullish one" — boa forma de colocar.

O que me chama atenção é que o sentiment está em colapso (F&G 9) mas o preço não. Essa divergência costuma resolver de um jeito ou de outro e rápido.

[Luis Fraga - ₿ - @cryptofraga]

"would like to see" é diferente de "está ajudando a subir"

Musk disse o mesmo em 2021. BTC caiu 50% depois.

Palavras são grátis. O mercado cobra em dólar.

[Crypto Rover @cryptorover]

ELON MUSK:

"I would like to see Bitcoin succeed."