Crypto Gator

Just someone interested in crypto and investment opportunities in general. Any information I share is NOT financial advice, and you should always DYOR ✌🏼

[Crypto Gator @cryptogat0r]

“A money that is easy to produce is no money at all, and easy money does not make a society richer; on the contrary, it makes it poorer by placing all its hard-earned wealth for sale in exchange for something easy to produce.” - The Bitcoin Standard

[Crypto Gator @cryptogat0r]

@LawrenceCrypt0 @benjamincowen Yeah, people are euphoric while a macroeconomic storm is forming in the background. It’ll be interesting to see how this plays out in the short term, though.

[Benjamin Cowen @benjamincowen]

A lot of news articles saying that the Sahm Rule Recession indicator triggered.

As far as I can see, that is not the case.

The 3 month average is now at 0.33%, still less than the 0.50% threshold.

I suspect it will trigger in the coming months, but it has not yet.

[Charlie Bilello @charliebilello]

Odds of another Fed rate hike at the July FOMC meeting jumped to 92% after the blowout ADP report (497k new private jobs created vs. 235k expected).

[Benjamin Cowen @benjamincowen]

Many will blame the SEC. Many will think this is the end.

But liquidity has been drying up for a long time.

The altcoin reckoning was always going to happen.

Bitcoin dominance was always going up.

The penultimate stage of the altcoin reckoning has begun.

[Nick Gerli @nickgerli1]

Americans can't afford their mortgages.

Debt to Income Ratio on FHA mortgages hit 44% in 2022.📈

Highest % ever. Even higher than 2007-08 Bubble.

Lots of defaults / foreclosures coming for low-income homeowners.

(Source: Fannie Mae)

[Nick Gerli @nickgerli1]

Investors are freaking out right now. 😬

US Treasury Yields plummet an insane 80bps the last two days. 📉

Biggest drop in yield since 1987 Flash Crash. Bigger than what happened after 9/11 and Lehman Brothers.

Is a market collapse coming?

[Nick Gerli @nickgerli1]

12) Summary continued...

-If history repeats itself, we could be in a "Deflationary Recession/Depression"

-Prices of a lot of things would go down. Houses. Rent. Commodities. Maybe even wages.

-Unemployment Rate would likely skyrocket. Maybe to as high as 10%.

[Nick Gerli @nickgerli1]

11) To summarize this tweet thread:

-The money supply is contracting in early 2023.

-Each time this happened before Deflation/Depression was the result.

-Stubbornly high inflation has made many blind to this risk factor.

-High chance Fed overtightens and causes Recession

[Charlie Bilello @charliebilello]

Asset Class returns since 2011...

[Charlie Bilello @charliebilello]

S&P 500 sales are up 6% year-over-year, the slowest YoY growth rate since Q4 2020. $SPX

[Charlie Bilello @charliebilello]

S&P 500 Q4 GAAP earnings are down 13% year-over-year, the 3rd consecutive quarter of negative YoY growth (note: combination of actual and estimates w/ 13% of companies reported thus far). $SPX

[Charlie Bilello @charliebilello]

The 6-month growth rate in the Leading Economic Index fell further into negative territory in December and is at levels that have signaled a recession in the past (2020, 2008, and 2001)...

https://t.co/Py6ZJpLvNS

[Charlie Bilello @charliebilello]

2022 was the first year since 2008 in which Apple, Amazon, Google, and Microsoft all finished lower AND all underperformed the S&P 500...
$AAPL: -26%
$AMZN: -50%
$GOOGL: -39%
$MSFT: -28%
$SPY: -18%

[Crypto Gator @cryptogat0r]

@cotepat @charliebilello Wouldn’t cutting rates lead to more demand? An increase in demand would lead to significantly more competition and higher prices.

[Charlie Bilello @charliebilello]

The median American household would need to spend 46.4% of their income to afford payments on a median-priced home in the US, the highest % on record with data going back to 2006.

[Charlie Bilello @charliebilello]

The US Strategic Petroleum Reserve moved down for the 70th consecutive week to its lowest level since 1983. The 37% decline in reserves last year was the largest on record by a wide margin.

[Paul Perry III, KBE @PA_P3RRY]

@WallStreetSilv The FDIC is only capitalized to 1.4% of its potential obligations. Imho there is a sizable risk of bank bail-ins being utilized during our next financial crisis. They were first utilized in Crete in 2011 and legalized in the United States in 2017.

Read: The Lords of Easy Money

[Charlie Bilello @charliebilello]

The 30-year US mortgage rate has moved from 7.08% to 6.49% over the last 3 weeks, the largest 3-week decline (-59 bps) in rates since December 2008.

[Charlie Bilello @charliebilello]

The Savings Rate in the US has moved down to 2.3%, the 2nd lowest level on record with data going back to 1959 (lowest was 2.1% in July 2005).

Charting via @ycharts

[Charlie Bilello @charliebilello]

More evidence of a decline in the US Inflation Rate...

The PCE Price Index moved down to 6%, its lowest level since last December. Peak was 7% in June.

Charting via @ycharts