Just someone interested in crypto and investment opportunities in general. Any information I share is NOT financial advice, and you should always DYOR ✌🏼
“A money that is easy to produce is no money at all, and easy money does not make a society richer; on the contrary, it makes it poorer by placing all its hard-earned wealth for sale in exchange for something easy to produce.” - The Bitcoin Standard
@LawrenceCrypt0 @benjamincowen Yeah, people are euphoric while a macroeconomic storm is forming in the background. It’ll be interesting to see how this plays out in the short term, though.
A lot of news articles saying that the Sahm Rule Recession indicator triggered.
As far as I can see, that is not the case.
The 3 month average is now at 0.33%, still less than the 0.50% threshold.
I suspect it will trigger in the coming months, but it has not yet.
Many will blame the SEC. Many will think this is the end.
But liquidity has been drying up for a long time.
The altcoin reckoning was always going to happen.
Bitcoin dominance was always going up.
The penultimate stage of the altcoin reckoning has begun.
Americans can't afford their mortgages.
Debt to Income Ratio on FHA mortgages hit 44% in 2022.📈
Highest % ever. Even higher than 2007-08 Bubble.
Lots of defaults / foreclosures coming for low-income homeowners.
(Source: Fannie Mae)
Investors are freaking out right now. 😬
US Treasury Yields plummet an insane 80bps the last two days. 📉
Biggest drop in yield since 1987 Flash Crash. Bigger than what happened after 9/11 and Lehman Brothers.
Is a market collapse coming?
12) Summary continued...
-If history repeats itself, we could be in a "Deflationary Recession/Depression"
-Prices of a lot of things would go down. Houses. Rent. Commodities. Maybe even wages.
-Unemployment Rate would likely skyrocket. Maybe to as high as 10%.
11) To summarize this tweet thread:
-The money supply is contracting in early 2023.
-Each time this happened before Deflation/Depression was the result.
-Stubbornly high inflation has made many blind to this risk factor.
-High chance Fed overtightens and causes Recession
S&P 500 Q4 GAAP earnings are down 13% year-over-year, the 3rd consecutive quarter of negative YoY growth (note: combination of actual and estimates w/ 13% of companies reported thus far). $SPX
The 6-month growth rate in the Leading Economic Index fell further into negative territory in December and is at levels that have signaled a recession in the past (2020, 2008, and 2001)...
https://t.co/Py6ZJpLvNS
2022 was the first year since 2008 in which Apple, Amazon, Google, and Microsoft all finished lower AND all underperformed the S&P 500...
$AAPL: -26%
$AMZN: -50%
$GOOGL: -39%
$MSFT: -28%
$SPY: -18%
@cotepat@charliebilello Wouldn’t cutting rates lead to more demand? An increase in demand would lead to significantly more competition and higher prices.
The median American household would need to spend 46.4% of their income to afford payments on a median-priced home in the US, the highest % on record with data going back to 2006.
The US Strategic Petroleum Reserve moved down for the 70th consecutive week to its lowest level since 1983. The 37% decline in reserves last year was the largest on record by a wide margin.
@WallStreetSilv The FDIC is only capitalized to 1.4% of its potential obligations. Imho there is a sizable risk of bank bail-ins being utilized during our next financial crisis. They were first utilized in Crete in 2011 and legalized in the United States in 2017.
Read: The Lords of Easy Money
The Savings Rate in the US has moved down to 2.3%, the 2nd lowest level on record with data going back to 1959 (lowest was 2.1% in July 2005).
Charting via @ycharts
More evidence of a decline in the US Inflation Rate...
The PCE Price Index moved down to 6%, its lowest level since last December. Peak was 7% in June.
Charting via @ycharts