Passionate about crypto. Sharing the best models, on-chain metrics, findings, knowledge & thoughts from the space. Nothing I say/show is financial advice.
Our brains are hardwired for linear expectations. 30 linear steps get you across the room. 30 exponential steps take you 26 times around the planet. The gap between those two numbers is where disruption happens.
BREAKING: BITCOIN TREASURY COMPANY METRICS NOW LIVE!
For the first time ever, track granular analytics on Bitcoin Treasury Companies. Only at Capriole Charts.
Alpha inside. The last charts are insane.
🧵
#btc How it started vs how it's going. Same plot, 5 years later, with new price data in red (the forecast is unmodified). The time-based power-law has held up remarkably well and the price is crossing the trend line once again. Note that I had to extend the x-axis.
In the last bear, one of the reasons @placeholdervc focused on @solana was a belief that it would be the normie-chain w/ its speed, low fees & smooth UX. That's playing out with memecoins & more.
But we've been @ethereum supporters since inception, and that hasn't changed... 🧵
Applications on Ethereum and Solana are on the verge of flipping their underlying infrastructure in revenue.
What does this mean for the future of value capture in the cryptoeconomy?
Famous quote from Dr Puell.
"The best time to buy #Bitcoin is at the bottom, the second best time to buy is at the post halving re-accumulation"
He didn't say it in words, he said it in numbers.
I've cleaned his model up to say it a bit clearer.
426m #Bitcoin holders today.
0.5 billion by Oct.
- All past studies of user count visualised
- Early data via on-chain clustering by @glassnode
- Then add KYC'd exchange users from Cambridge and Crypto·com studies, adjusting for BTC-only
- Then project growth rate forward
#Bitcoin this is the only graph you need to fully understand Bitcoin.
All the info is here.
All the behavior of Bitcoin is explained here (at least on the long and medium range).
Did you sell some of your ETH for SOL AVAX etc, in case they grow faster or even wins?
Did you sell some of your BTC to hodl LTC or XMR in case they win?
Answer that and you’ll know why BTC doesn’t have competition. Also why ETH hasn’t outperformed despite being deflationary.
This is a #Bitcoin long timeframe risk signal I've been working on.
Scale in when risk is low, scale out when risk is high.
It's saying, "enjoy the dip while this consolidation last".
This is not the top, it's simply ATH consolidation.
10 years ago, Bitcoin mining was a hobbyist activity.
Today, it generates more annual revenue than some of the largest publicly traded companies in the world.
Spotify, eBay, Hermes, Chipotle, Hertz, and Hilton all generate less annual revenue than bitcoin miners.
Bitcoin's hash rate hit an all time high 500 exahashes/s this month.
To highlight the enormity of this number:
- For every star in our galaxy, the Bitcoin network is calculating 5 billion computations per second.
- It would take ~2000 years for the entire global population, each performing one hash/second, to match the Bitcoin network's hash rate.
- The Bitcoin network performs ~67 times more hashes per second than there are grains of sand on Earth.
- By number of raw operations/second, Bitcoin is ~500x more performant than the world's most powerful supercomputer.
Yet, there are skeptics out there that still believe "bitcoin is backed by nothing".
One of my favourite on-chain indicators is the increase or decrease in realised cap, which measures the capital being stored by the #Bitcoin network. We are in a region where money is being poured into the network at an increasing rate.
The next chart illustrates this. Adoption curves for internet users and cell phone subscribers look similar, but once they are curve-fitted against Bitcoin’s network, even the smallest change in slope from the exponential phase to the asymptotic phase matters. /9
In April 2024, Bitcoin's Electrical Cost, the raw energy cost of mining Bitcoin, will double overnight. This is a certainty.
Inefficient miners will then start shutting down as the Bitcoin reward Halves.
In the last two Halvings, Electrical Cost bottomed at +65% and +50% of the pre-Halving values.
If Electrical cost bottoms at +50% this time, that means the historic price floor of Bitcoin will be $41.2K in just 5 months time.