![balajis's tweet photo. ALL IT TAKES IS ALL YOU GOT
Wow, I love this so much.
First, the debt didn't matter.
Now, it still doesn't matter...
Because the state can take all your assets to pay it!
Here's the graph Brent cites:
Below is that same graph with titles and labels[1]. See how it says balance sheet of households and nonprofit organizations? So that $177T number isn't really about government assets. It's just everything every American household (and nonprofit, hedge fund, PE fund, and personal trust) owns[2].
And now we're getting down to brass tacks.
See, Keynesianism is like Communism in that it sees no real difference between household and government assets. There is no moral limit on how much they can take from the population via inflation and seizure, only practical limits. So, your household assets can and will be taken to pay for what this failed state owes.
And how much does it owe? Well for that we can go to a recent analysis[3] of the Feb 2024 Financial Report of the United States Government[4].
Here's the table where the US government itself admits that even $37T is an underestimate of the debt. When you include the "social insurance" of Social Security and Medicare it's another $78.4T line item.
But wait, there's more!
Later in the doc Treasury itself admits even *this* is a sharp underestimate of what the US owes in terms of Social Security and Medicare because it's not accounting for future payouts decades from now. Once it does, what does the number get to? Here's the direct quote from them:
"The total...sums to **$175.3 trillion** in PV terms. This need can be satisfied only through increased borrowing, higher taxes, reduced program spending, or some combination."
That $175.3T lines up with the ~$200T number that Druckenmiller[5] has been using for the all-in liabilities of the US government when you take everything into account. And of course, at this point we are in monopoly money territory, because:
a) The entire fedguv only collected $1.86T last year[6]
b) That number is itself juiced by deficit spending
c) The dollar is down ~25% in real terms since 2020[7]
d) And the "177T" in asset value plummets if liquidated
e) ...or if there is a financial crisis, or both
So: no, the US government doesn't have nearly enough to pay for what it owes. It's made promises to everyone, from allies to retirees, that it simply can't keep. To hang on to power amidst that web of broken obligations, it is going to get nasty on a level beyond which most can really comprehend.
I appreciate, however, that we are starting to glimpse the endgame. When a bankrupt state collapses, it's like a black hole. It sucks everything it can into its gaping maw. Everything it can possibly seize, will be seized. Everything it can possibly print, will be printed.
All your assets become its assets.
All it takes...is all you got.](https://pbs.twimg.com/media/GJx7nDdakAEbTfo.jpg)
![balajis's tweet photo. ALL IT TAKES IS ALL YOU GOT
Wow, I love this so much.
First, the debt didn't matter.
Now, it still doesn't matter...
Because the state can take all your assets to pay it!
Here's the graph Brent cites:
Below is that same graph with titles and labels[1]. See how it says balance sheet of households and nonprofit organizations? So that $177T number isn't really about government assets. It's just everything every American household (and nonprofit, hedge fund, PE fund, and personal trust) owns[2].
And now we're getting down to brass tacks.
See, Keynesianism is like Communism in that it sees no real difference between household and government assets. There is no moral limit on how much they can take from the population via inflation and seizure, only practical limits. So, your household assets can and will be taken to pay for what this failed state owes.
And how much does it owe? Well for that we can go to a recent analysis[3] of the Feb 2024 Financial Report of the United States Government[4].
Here's the table where the US government itself admits that even $37T is an underestimate of the debt. When you include the "social insurance" of Social Security and Medicare it's another $78.4T line item.
But wait, there's more!
Later in the doc Treasury itself admits even *this* is a sharp underestimate of what the US owes in terms of Social Security and Medicare because it's not accounting for future payouts decades from now. Once it does, what does the number get to? Here's the direct quote from them:
"The total...sums to **$175.3 trillion** in PV terms. This need can be satisfied only through increased borrowing, higher taxes, reduced program spending, or some combination."
That $175.3T lines up with the ~$200T number that Druckenmiller[5] has been using for the all-in liabilities of the US government when you take everything into account. And of course, at this point we are in monopoly money territory, because:
a) The entire fedguv only collected $1.86T last year[6]
b) That number is itself juiced by deficit spending
c) The dollar is down ~25% in real terms since 2020[7]
d) And the "177T" in asset value plummets if liquidated
e) ...or if there is a financial crisis, or both
So: no, the US government doesn't have nearly enough to pay for what it owes. It's made promises to everyone, from allies to retirees, that it simply can't keep. To hang on to power amidst that web of broken obligations, it is going to get nasty on a level beyond which most can really comprehend.
I appreciate, however, that we are starting to glimpse the endgame. When a bankrupt state collapses, it's like a black hole. It sucks everything it can into its gaping maw. Everything it can possibly seize, will be seized. Everything it can possibly print, will be printed.
All your assets become its assets.
All it takes...is all you got.](https://pbs.twimg.com/media/GJx54doakAEmYXM.png)
![balajis's tweet photo. ALL IT TAKES IS ALL YOU GOT
Wow, I love this so much.
First, the debt didn't matter.
Now, it still doesn't matter...
Because the state can take all your assets to pay it!
Here's the graph Brent cites:
Below is that same graph with titles and labels[1]. See how it says balance sheet of households and nonprofit organizations? So that $177T number isn't really about government assets. It's just everything every American household (and nonprofit, hedge fund, PE fund, and personal trust) owns[2].
And now we're getting down to brass tacks.
See, Keynesianism is like Communism in that it sees no real difference between household and government assets. There is no moral limit on how much they can take from the population via inflation and seizure, only practical limits. So, your household assets can and will be taken to pay for what this failed state owes.
And how much does it owe? Well for that we can go to a recent analysis[3] of the Feb 2024 Financial Report of the United States Government[4].
Here's the table where the US government itself admits that even $37T is an underestimate of the debt. When you include the "social insurance" of Social Security and Medicare it's another $78.4T line item.
But wait, there's more!
Later in the doc Treasury itself admits even *this* is a sharp underestimate of what the US owes in terms of Social Security and Medicare because it's not accounting for future payouts decades from now. Once it does, what does the number get to? Here's the direct quote from them:
"The total...sums to **$175.3 trillion** in PV terms. This need can be satisfied only through increased borrowing, higher taxes, reduced program spending, or some combination."
That $175.3T lines up with the ~$200T number that Druckenmiller[5] has been using for the all-in liabilities of the US government when you take everything into account. And of course, at this point we are in monopoly money territory, because:
a) The entire fedguv only collected $1.86T last year[6]
b) That number is itself juiced by deficit spending
c) The dollar is down ~25% in real terms since 2020[7]
d) And the "177T" in asset value plummets if liquidated
e) ...or if there is a financial crisis, or both
So: no, the US government doesn't have nearly enough to pay for what it owes. It's made promises to everyone, from allies to retirees, that it simply can't keep. To hang on to power amidst that web of broken obligations, it is going to get nasty on a level beyond which most can really comprehend.
I appreciate, however, that we are starting to glimpse the endgame. When a bankrupt state collapses, it's like a black hole. It sucks everything it can into its gaping maw. Everything it can possibly seize, will be seized. Everything it can possibly print, will be printed.
All your assets become its assets.
All it takes...is all you got.](https://pbs.twimg.com/media/GJx4-zEakAA4trz.png)
Olivia
Online
Crypto Angel
@Cryptongel
Carpe Diem
Joined April 2021
511 Following
45 Followers
226 Posts
I'm seeing crypto folk falling into the trough of dispair after an abysmal bull market with mainly losers and BTC outperforming their "beta".
Let me tell you a story that tells you why you got screwed. It starts with the end of FTX.
When the bankruptcy folk came in to liquidate FTX assets their mandate was to sell everything. This included vast quantities of locked SOL.
They inadvertently invented something new, selling an asset that was locked up on-chain through the magic of a legal sale agreement (pay me now, I deliver later).
The deal got passed around the ecosystem, fund managers bought up the locked SOL at more than 60% discount to compensate for being locked up and exposed to the token price.
Many hedge funds bought the deal. They knew they could hedge the token price on futures markets by shorting SOL pocketing 70-80% yield at near zero risk (staking + basis yield + token discount).
They liked it and asked where can we get more of this?
Herein lies your PROBLEM as a crypto investor in 2023-2025.
Every crypto project has backers (and a foundation) who has great wads locked tokens that have been sold to hedge funds and dumped on you immediately through futures markets.
All your alpha went to market neutral hedge funds pocketing risk free yield.
THAT IS WHY CRYPTO IN 2023-2025 UNDER PERFORMED
You got dumped on prematurely.
On the bright side many of these projects, even though they have "locked up tokens ready to dump" on paper, in reality they have been sold already, so they will logically perform without the expected sell pressure in the next bull market given they have effectively been sold.
Not that I recommend buying crypto, you need to be an insider to get an edge, it works like a casino, the house will take your money. The house in 2023-2025 were the people who understood this trade. Just buy BTC and get on with your life.
@RogerDickerman @nodefnd @cryptopunks Wowwww it looks amazing and truly groundbreaking!! Wish I could teleport there right now! Huge respect to the NODE Foundation and to everyone involved for upping the entire level for digital art & NFTs. @cryptopunks @larvalabs @matthall2000 @pents90
I just launched https://t.co/LmQYtej5t2 as a sister site to https://t.co/i9HzLdI9u0 to help keep track of CryptoPunks in Museum collections. Data, lore, links and more. Enjoy!
I just minted "24 Hours of Art: 2026 Subscription" by @24_Hours_Art which is now live on @TransientLabs. Minting now! https://t.co/3NJ32Jjn42
While writing this article, I realized that a far larger % of our space than expected still relies on 2021 mainstream sources (or AI trained on them), rather than immutable blockchain provenance or our own documentation, to understand our ecosystem’s history. This must change.
The four eras of NFT history, their defining events, rarity relative to today’s total estimated supply, and some of their representative assets, projects and artists.
We are excited to celebrate the recent acquisitions of Chromie Squiggles and CryptoPunks into @MuseumModernArt's permanent collection.
We are all profoundly grateful to the artists and collectors who supported this important donation, uniting the collective generosity of this amazing community. MoMA has been championing transformative art of the modern era for nearly a century and remains at the vanguard as we peer into the digital frontier.
Thank you to @ArtOnBlockchain, @CozomoMedici, @gmoneyNFT, @jdh, @judithESSS, @kukulabanze, @larvalabs, @NTmoney, @Rhyd0n, @squiggleDAO, and @VonMises14 for your profound generosity, as well as to MoMA’s Stuart Comer & Michelle Kuo for their extraordinary support and curatorial vision.
Some things I cannot get over from today’s Basel VIP day, I’m just gonna type once and rip bc I’m eager to get these memories out:
Best mic drop moment for digital artists I’ve ever seen. The exhibition looked so damn good, our energy was so high it made the other half of the fair feel vapid. Perennial Basel VIP goers walked a fair booth after booth of what is honestly repetitive “trad” art and then BOOM, they’re instantly stimulated by the masterfully organized Zero to 10 exhibition. They’re hit with the largest crowd they never expected, many of which was anchored by 50-100 crypto friends rekindling, and ready to lend their knowledge to explain the works in front of them like they’re the artists.
Speaking to Scott Winkelmann (@beeple bro) about how incredible it was to see all the smiling faces videotaping Regular Animals. He mentioned 50+ inquiries for buying one (they sold out before i walked in). It will be the most viral piece in all of Art Miami.
Coin Laundry by @XCOPYART with incredible representation and support by @miminguyenmimi and @shape , so busy at times, it was all hands on deck from @bonafidehan @pravijn and anyone who knew what was going on to onboard attendees with their soap.
Sergey Brin was there and seen admiring @dmitricherniak’s Floor Ringer, the booth looked stunning huge congrats @Vince_Van_Dough @anikojay and all who repped.
@ArtOnBlockchain and @jeffgdavis smiling ear to ear, happy to be recounting the story of Art Blocks with a passion no other gallerist has had before. Snowfro, the apex collector turned innovator in the space coming full circle to showcasing and selling AB minted Quines by @larvalabs .
@CaballeroAnaMa reciting her beautiful and poem in front of 100s of fully engaged listeners, a wonderfully intimate break during the day.
The amount of questions and genuine interest I felt from bankers and their groups of clients awing at the method and output @tylerxhobbs works, and seeing @leyla_solos team handle the interest with the perfect tact.
@sofiagarcia_io @micolmicolmicol @fellowship working a central pillar of the fair, selling all the @ix_shells works on display, one of my favorite place to watch reactions from throughout the day.
@jackbutcher crushing it as the labeled “manager” and helped his guests Self Checkout and unknowingly mint their first NFTs. The most engaging of conceptual art many ppl can microbuy ($1, can do online too)
@mpkoz giving the most intricate and interesting of details on the masterful work he produced with @heft_gallery
@eli_schein and @redbeardnft with such hospitable charm working the entire exhibition floor. Making intros and giving full context tours. Truly amazing work my bros, I’m so happy to see the 10/10 execution.
I’ll look to end by saying i don’t care what the culturally deficient say about us, digital art is the artistic movement of our time. I just witnessed the “cool”, elite crowd of society come into our corner of the Art Basel fair and smile with intrigue as they realized why our generation is not going to be buying $60m Rothkos.
Our internet native generation deserves this movement. It’s uniquely ours and it’s real as fuck, in the deepest of bears. It wasn’t passed onto us as inheritance, it grew from twitter telegram and discord. It is extreme ownership of what is truly ours, and these Basel VIPs don’t even know (yet) how based it feels to enjoy the true sovereignty of this movement.
I didn’t plan to go every day, but now i feel a sense of pride i want to enjoy more days of the week so i will happily be there daily. I need to get my time with @yatreda @mayaonthenet @joepease !!
This was a perfect exhibition in my book. 🫡🫡
✅ Nov'22 $15.5k was the bottom
✅ 2024 halving was above $32k
✅ 2025 is above $100k
These Jan 12, 2023 predictions might seem conservative and obvious now, but at the time ($18k) most people thought I was crazy.
So what's next? IMO bitcoin will be >$250k in 2026.
STEVE WOZNIAK: “Bitcoin is the most amazing mathematical miracle. It's better than gold.”
While not confirmed, a little delay isn't that crazy considering Trading & Markets was told 11th hour themselves. (we think it's poss they even had rejection letters prepared). So poss they need to finish writing it. That said, everything we've heard says it will be approved.
ALL IT TAKES IS ALL YOU GOT
Wow, I love this so much.
First, the debt didn't matter.
Now, it still doesn't matter...
Because the state can take all your assets to pay it!
Here's the graph Brent cites:
Below is that same graph with titles and labels[1]. See how it says balance sheet of households and nonprofit organizations? So that $177T number isn't really about government assets. It's just everything every American household (and nonprofit, hedge fund, PE fund, and personal trust) owns[2].
And now we're getting down to brass tacks.
See, Keynesianism is like Communism in that it sees no real difference between household and government assets. There is no moral limit on how much they can take from the population via inflation and seizure, only practical limits. So, your household assets can and will be taken to pay for what this failed state owes.
And how much does it owe? Well for that we can go to a recent analysis[3] of the Feb 2024 Financial Report of the United States Government[4].
Here's the table where the US government itself admits that even $37T is an underestimate of the debt. When you include the "social insurance" of Social Security and Medicare it's another $78.4T line item.
But wait, there's more!
Later in the doc Treasury itself admits even *this* is a sharp underestimate of what the US owes in terms of Social Security and Medicare because it's not accounting for future payouts decades from now. Once it does, what does the number get to? Here's the direct quote from them:
"The total...sums to **$175.3 trillion** in PV terms. This need can be satisfied only through increased borrowing, higher taxes, reduced program spending, or some combination."
That $175.3T lines up with the ~$200T number that Druckenmiller[5] has been using for the all-in liabilities of the US government when you take everything into account. And of course, at this point we are in monopoly money territory, because:
a) The entire fedguv only collected $1.86T last year[6]
b) That number is itself juiced by deficit spending
c) The dollar is down ~25% in real terms since 2020[7]
d) And the "177T" in asset value plummets if liquidated
e) ...or if there is a financial crisis, or both
So: no, the US government doesn't have nearly enough to pay for what it owes. It's made promises to everyone, from allies to retirees, that it simply can't keep. To hang on to power amidst that web of broken obligations, it is going to get nasty on a level beyond which most can really comprehend.
I appreciate, however, that we are starting to glimpse the endgame. When a bankrupt state collapses, it's like a black hole. It sucks everything it can into its gaping maw. Everything it can possibly seize, will be seized. Everything it can possibly print, will be printed.
All your assets become its assets.
All it takes...is all you got.
![balajis's tweet photo. ALL IT TAKES IS ALL YOU GOT
Wow, I love this so much.
First, the debt didn't matter.
Now, it still doesn't matter...
Because the state can take all your assets to pay it!
Here's the graph Brent cites:
Below is that same graph with titles and labels[1]. See how it says balance sheet of households and nonprofit organizations? So that $177T number isn't really about government assets. It's just everything every American household (and nonprofit, hedge fund, PE fund, and personal trust) owns[2].
And now we're getting down to brass tacks.
See, Keynesianism is like Communism in that it sees no real difference between household and government assets. There is no moral limit on how much they can take from the population via inflation and seizure, only practical limits. So, your household assets can and will be taken to pay for what this failed state owes.
And how much does it owe? Well for that we can go to a recent analysis[3] of the Feb 2024 Financial Report of the United States Government[4].
Here's the table where the US government itself admits that even $37T is an underestimate of the debt. When you include the "social insurance" of Social Security and Medicare it's another $78.4T line item.
But wait, there's more!
Later in the doc Treasury itself admits even *this* is a sharp underestimate of what the US owes in terms of Social Security and Medicare because it's not accounting for future payouts decades from now. Once it does, what does the number get to? Here's the direct quote from them:
"The total...sums to **$175.3 trillion** in PV terms. This need can be satisfied only through increased borrowing, higher taxes, reduced program spending, or some combination."
That $175.3T lines up with the ~$200T number that Druckenmiller[5] has been using for the all-in liabilities of the US government when you take everything into account. And of course, at this point we are in monopoly money territory, because:
a) The entire fedguv only collected $1.86T last year[6]
b) That number is itself juiced by deficit spending
c) The dollar is down ~25% in real terms since 2020[7]
d) And the "177T" in asset value plummets if liquidated
e) ...or if there is a financial crisis, or both
So: no, the US government doesn't have nearly enough to pay for what it owes. It's made promises to everyone, from allies to retirees, that it simply can't keep. To hang on to power amidst that web of broken obligations, it is going to get nasty on a level beyond which most can really comprehend.
I appreciate, however, that we are starting to glimpse the endgame. When a bankrupt state collapses, it's like a black hole. It sucks everything it can into its gaping maw. Everything it can possibly seize, will be seized. Everything it can possibly print, will be printed.
All your assets become its assets.
All it takes...is all you got.](https://pbs.twimg.com/media/GJyAQnHbYAAak9h.jpg)
Every halving period (210,000 blocks, ~4y) there is a bull market in which bitcoin price pumps. Now listen carefully: these price pumps are NOT bubbles, but fundamental jumps, structural events, phase changes. You can see it in the realized price, which flattens, until the next jump. Halvings are critically important bitcoin events. S2F model tries to model these jumps as elegant as possible, with only 1 variable and a linear function.
Bitcoin tapped $73k tuesday. No one said anything. Spent much of wednesday above $73k. I think the reason things are muted is that $100k seems way overdue, for a few years now, so there's not much bull market euphoria as the $1-5k green candles scroll by. Just tick tock $100k.
BOOM: ARK just filed for a Spot Ether ETF, the first one.. prob more coming imminent
Listen to The Iliad as an audiobook.
It was meant to be spoken.
NEXT DATES TO WATCH:
Middle of October are the next major days to watch. Namely October 16th. (& @GlobalXETFs' Oct 7)
Also, reminder that we fully expected delays on this round of spot #Bitcoin ETF filings. Would have been a shock if they were approved this week.
Interesting they only delayed Valkyrie, Invesco and WisdomTree (in pretty quick succession). Nothing yet on BlackRock and Fidelity, hmmmm.. (cue the Charlie from It's Always Sunny meme)
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