All good brother, you're one of CT's goats, one of less than probably 5 people on this app who's analysis I stop and look at.
The truth is, CT crucifies TRANSPARENT traders (bullish or bearish, but bears really get slaughtered) while letting the cheerleaders slide and scam in peace. "HIGHER" retards post everyday and build followings off the back of Bitcoin / ETH rallies with the goal of slipping a couple paid memecoin shills into their feed, then go silent during down days, then get right back to it on the first green candle.
There's a lot of love and admiration for the real traders too, but shits definitely backwards a lot of the time. EVERYONE on here should be embracing transparent traders and stop giving attention to people who strictly cheerlead price without charts or plans, full time hindsight traders (and many with the sole purpose of self enrichment without any actual personal PnL to show for it).
My base case for those who don't get the nuanced view:
BTC.D rejected at 0.786 Fib Level (66%) just like it was rejected at 0.618 Fib level (60%) last year.
ALT/BTC is up because ETH/BTC is up
But ALT/ETH is bleeding
So ETH is better than ALTs.
Remember ALT/BTC pairs have found a local low every June from 2022-2025).
ALT/BTC rally will likely end by late August at the latest
BTC.D rally in Sep-Oct
ETH/BTC higher low in Sep/Oct
ALT/BTC pairs lower low in Sep/Oct (could be beginning of Nov).
Hard to know if the next rally by BTC.D leads to a higher high even if ALT/BTC pairs put in a lower low (as it depends on how high the next higher low is for ETH/BTC).
Look at what ALT/BTC pairs did from July-August of 2017 and see how they still dropped to 0.25 by late October.
Look at how while ALT/BTC pairs are up, ALT/ETH pairs are down 40% since ETH "went home."
I could be wrong about any one of these views, but these are my views.
When something I posted above is inevitably wrong, you are welcome to post this receipt and laugh.
Also, I'm not talking about your alt.