The next mega bubbles that will help you escape the underclass:
1. Robotics (producers & picks and shovels — what goes into production?)
2. Space (space n aliens n stuff)
3. Energy (Uranium, battery companies, etc)
4. World financialization (stablecoins)
After that it’s over, you either made it or you didn’t
That’s why there’s a non-trivial chance of a relief rally around end of March, built on headlines from the Trump-Xi summit.
Don’t confuse it with a Hormuz resolution though. Every week that continues the inflation and supply chain implications compound.
Any relief is borrowed time unless the situation changes structurally.
It’s becoming clear that, because of government manipulation of the market and media, and people’s willingness to believe anything they read, it’s going to be a dangerous period to be short
This period will make it obvious who can sort reality from propaganda
Consensus right now is that Bitcoin has no catalysts left. Quantum FUD is mainstream. Gold did 60% last year, silver 120%, BTC ended red - failed us in the exact environment we believed it would outperform.
I think the next thesis is forming right now and it has nothing to do with any of that.
Iranian drones recently hit AWS data centers in the UAE and Bahrain. Two out of three availability zones in the region went down at the same time. Redundancy didn't work. Payment apps and banks across the Gulf just stopped working.
The Strait of Hormuz and Red Sea are both active conflict zones simultaneously. This hasn't happened before. Submarine cables carrying most of the data traffic between Europe, Asia and Africa run through those waters. Meta's undersea cable contractor declared force majeure. Repair ships can't enter either passage.
IRGC published a list of US tech infrastructure it considers fair targets. Told civilians to stay a kilometer from banks.
I don't think this calms down anytime soon. If anything it escalates. And if you look at the pattern — data centers targeted, banking infrastructure disrupted, both major data chokepoints closed, cables at risk — it's not hard to see where this goes over the next year.
The question nobody seems to be asking: what financial network keeps working when your cloud provider gets hit by a drone, your bank app is offline, your government freezes transfers, and the cables connecting your country to the rest of the world are sitting in a war zone?
With Bitcoin, there's no availability zone to bomb. You can carry it across any border on a hardware wallet or in your head with a seed phrase. No bank can block it. No government can freeze it.
Doesn't look like the market has priced any of this in. I'm in no rush to deploy yet, but starting to bid on any further legs lower.
Funny how I was more worried in August when everyone agreed Q4 would be good. Now that so many are scared, I'm more optimistic. If Bitcoin can finish September in the green, history suggests we're in for a good ride in Q4
It's simple: we're index fund for ICM tokens.
We buy and hold good tokens behind good founders and apps.
After that, we advocate those teams to provide benefits to their token holders which would lead to appreciation of those tokens [and our portfolio].