balouthebear

Critical takes on crypto, Web3 & the cult of consensus. Threads on mechanics, narratives, and the stuff we ignore. balouthebear.eth | thinking ≠ following

[balouthebear @Cryptopia13]

List of threads that might be of interest to you.

Crypto valuations - Spoiler: They are basically all the same and none is special. $BTC is NO exception here:

https://t.co/whKLrX8bgj

[balouthebear @Cryptopia13]

Everyone in $BTC, $ETH, $XRP, $DOGE, $SOL (and others) thinks they’re a genius.
Not just for making $ — but because they think they’ve figured out the game (and others haven’t — like a religion, this creates the urge to convert non-believers).

📊🧵👇
#Bitcoin #Ethereum #Crypto

[balouthebear @Cryptopia13]

@BigpictureBTC @saylor Good start in your thread. Kudos for pointing that out.

But $BTC isn’t money either 👇

[balouthebear @Cryptopia13]

5/
“You can’t value money by cashflow. BTC is a monetary good.”

Fine. Then judge it by money’s own job description.

Money has three functions. BTC fails 2.5 of them. 👇

[balouthebear @Cryptopia13]

@ChainlinkLoad stress-test tokens & find weaknesses nobody has found before => in a token-, blockchain world you can’t correct later, the money is already gone then due to the very nature of real chains.

- there are already high incentives to have value accrual on equity level - & these grow

[balouthebear @Cryptopia13]

@ChainlinkLoad I am really worried that the longer it takes to make the token useful, the higher the incentives to just abandon the token.

- the system works fine as is without the token => changing anything introduces uncertainty and risk
- ZEC has shown that AI tools might really…

[balouthebear @Cryptopia13]

@michaellebowitz Exactly my point - $BTC has no floor.

[balouthebear @Cryptopia13]

1/
Bitcoin’s fundamental value is zero.

Not low. Zero.

Five threads to prove it - here’s the whole case in one, and the one test it’s failed for 16 years. 🧵 $BTC

[balouthebear @Cryptopia13]

@scottmelker 3 problems:

- $BTC is not a stock nor does it have any value built in
- It’s definitely not a high-quality asset (it has underperformed for a long time now)
- if we are really honest, it doesn’t have real value at all, since it isn’t money either 👇

[balouthebear @Cryptopia13]

1/
Bitcoin’s fundamental value is zero.

Not low. Zero.

Five threads to prove it - here’s the whole case in one, and the one test it’s failed for 16 years. 🧵 $BTC

[balouthebear @Cryptopia13]

@ChainlinkLoad Nah - their statement is more like growing the CL ecosystem.

There is no mention of value accrual for the token. As always, the token is just a tool and we have 0 clue what they are really going to do with it.

https://t.co/KsDfZpfgNc

[balouthebear @Cryptopia13]

@Neubs15 @DerJbrand With the ICO and with the Economics 2.0 paper and on countless other occasions

[balouthebear @Cryptopia13]

@CredibleCrypto We still have the same problem as last time and we still seem to not be able to get rid of it just yet 👇

(The article is not just click-bait - it’s well crafted)

[balouthebear @Cryptopia13]

1/
Bitcoin’s fundamental value is zero.

Not low. Zero.

Five threads to prove it - here’s the whole case in one, and the one test it’s failed for 16 years. 🧵 $BTC

[balouthebear @Cryptopia13]

@KyleReidhead @MilkRoad It has worked for more ridiculous stuff before 👇

https://t.co/epms6EQXd4

[balouthebear @Cryptopia13]

1/
Bitcoin’s fundamental value is zero.

Not low. Zero.

Five threads to prove it - here’s the whole case in one, and the one test it’s failed for 16 years. 🧵 $BTC

[balouthebear @Cryptopia13]

@InvestorJordan Different topic but the graphical representation is very useful here. Way way less upside than all the previous times and $BTC even going way below the starting point - first time ever.
And there won’t be a Saylor next time.

So no, the question was a completely serious one

[Jesse Olson @JesseOlson]

$BTC has bottomed near 900 days in every cycle.

Day 775, this is what we learned:
Super cycle.❌
5-year cycle ❌
M2 Global Fractal ❌
Talking heads ❌
Business cycle ❌
Banana zone ❌
Saylor will never sell ❌
Jesse Olson Charts ✅

Buy The Right Dip 🤝

[balouthebear @Cryptopia13]

@DocumentingBTC @coinbase @brian_armstrong Can there be a more nonsensical idea than using an asset that has just lost 25% of its value within days as collateral for a loan?

Not everything that can be done (from a technical standpoint) is as good an idea that it should be done.

[balouthebear @Cryptopia13]

@Crypto_BitC For that 👇 to resolve in a positive way for $Link.
Right now basically all you say for $Link is only true for Chainlink labs. And Chainlink labs has not decided yet if $Link will get a piece of the pie or not.

[balouthebear @Cryptopia13]

1/ Is $LINK worth it — or is Chainlink worth it? Not the same question. The network is winning. The token may be a separate, much weaker bet. A thread on how Chainlink’s success and $LINK’s value quietly decoupled 👇 #Chainlink #LINK 🧵

[balouthebear @Cryptopia13]

@LinkBoi777 relevant too. There were already quite high incentives for CL labs to go down the equity route 👇. These incentives might have just increased when tokens and code cannot be assumed to be completely secure anymore.

[balouthebear @Cryptopia13]

1/ Is $LINK worth it — or is Chainlink worth it? Not the same question. The network is winning. The token may be a separate, much weaker bet. A thread on how Chainlink’s success and $LINK’s value quietly decoupled 👇 #Chainlink #LINK 🧵

[balouthebear @Cryptopia13]

@LinkBoi777 Yeah - I‘ve seen the posts too and CLG had it too (least before he joined CL labs).

But they have also published economics 2.0 and they have promised Staking for NOs and V1 and nothing has happened for years now.

The new development with Mythos and bugs in $ZEC might become👇

[balouthebear @Cryptopia13]

@saylor I‘ll start with this one in my thread 👇

[balouthebear @Cryptopia13]

5/
“You can’t value money by cashflow. BTC is a monetary good.”

Fine. Then judge it by money’s own job description.

Money has three functions. BTC fails 2.5 of them. 👇

[balouthebear @Cryptopia13]

@LinkBoi777 Every company has an equity structure and equity holders by law the moment the business is set up.

And do we really know 100% that there are no (electronic) stock option plans for employees?

[balouthebear @Cryptopia13]

@_The_Prophet__ Counter - perspective 👇. And this has a lot of merit too:
- $BTC not performing anymore despite Saylor and ETFs
- $BTC being the only asset that does not work anymore while stocks, liquidity etc are at all-time-highs
- current and all previous rounds of PvP
- etc

[balouthebear @Cryptopia13]

1/
Bitcoin’s real innovation wasn’t money.
It was discovering how to run a Ponzi scheme — fully decentralized, self-organizing, and immune to blame.
A system that extracts value from belief itself.
#Bitcoin #Crypto