@benjamincowen If you add 2 lines, 1 for the tops of % Supply in loss and one for the bottoms of % Supply in Profit for each 'cycle' you will see that we are close to what looks to be a 'bottom' in price.
@fejau_inc Yeah, we kinda in research mode circa 2018/19 IMO. Need some more catalysts. Likely going to be fewer winners, more concentrated bets vs. YOLO whatever lol. We may also just keep going down til October, at this point, who knows. Thinking like June/July may be fun.
@fejau_inc Well, those tokens kinda need some actual usage. If I were to place my bets, ZRO holds value the best. Other two have minimal potential at this point for good tokenomics.
So now the US Gov has reopened, what's next?
Expect a few days for TGA spending to begin to significantly add to liquidity and should persist for several months.
Obviously, QT ends in Dec and the balancesheet will crawl higher.
We should see the dollar begin to weaken again.
The next key step is to avoid a Year End funding squeeze. Expect several "temporary" measures to add liquidity. Term Funding and SRF operations are most likely.
That will eventually morph into the desperately needed changes to the SLR to allow banks to absorb more issuance and re-lever their balance sheets. This is a big liquidity bazooka. Expect in Q1.
SLR should lower rates as banks buy more bonds.
Also expect CLARITY Act for crypto to begin to get finalised.
There will also be stimulus payments and the Big Beautiful Bill fiscal goosing.
China will contonue balance sheet expansion. Europe will add fiscal stimulus or extra spending.
The debts must be rolled and the Gov wants to super heat the economy into the Mid-Terms.
This is the Liquidity Flood.... the spice must flow.
BTC's chart looks bearish but behind the scenes risk is dropping.
i.e. INVESTOR LIQUIDITY IS STRONG.
The underlying bullish structure, while being fragile in recent months, remains intact.