My Weekly Technical Analysis Update on GOLD
Although the overall higher-timeframe bias is still under observation, a few strong confluences are supporting a bullish move across multiple time frames.
Bullish Confluences
1. A daily bullish engulfing candle has formed at weekly support. ✅
2. A 4H CHOCH (Change of Character) has formed from the daily support zone. ✅
3. The daily minor bearish market structure has shifted with a CHOCH, indicating a potential bullish reversal. ✅
Changes From Last Week
1. A daily minor bearish structure CHOCH has formed.
2. Another true daily bullish engulfing candle has formed at the support level.
3. Price rejected the upward trendline and formed a bearish engulfing candle. However, the 4H minor bearish structure later shifted with a bullish CHOCH from the daily support zone. Since horizontal support levels carry more weight than trendlines, I am giving more importance to the bullish bounce from support.
Conclusion
Unless a daily candle closes below $3,942, I remain bullish on GOLD.
My View on Bitcoin
1. The weekly major market structure is bearish.
2. The weekly minor market structure is also bearish.
3. Price retested the weekly trendline and formed a bullish candle after sweeping liquidity, which is a bullish sign.
4. However, a bullish reversal is not yet confirmed because there has been no daily market structure shift (MSS).
Overall, I remain bearish because most of the confluences still favor the downside.
I will turn bullish only after a confirmed daily market structure shift.
My View on Gold
1. The major market structure remains bearish.
2. I have not identified any daily (1D) market structure shift at the weekly support level. Therefore, my higher-timeframe bias remains bearish.
3. About a week ago, sell-side liquidity above a weekly candle high was taken, which further supports the bearish outlook.
4. The weekly trendline was broken four weeks ago, reinforcing the bearish bias.
Overall Outlook
I remain bearish on gold for the upcoming week.
I am closely watching the 3900 level, as it is a significant liquidity area. For me to consider a bullish reversal, I need to see a daily (1D) market structure shift at or around this level. Until that confirmation appears, I will maintain my bearish bias on gold.
All I hold is:
Fiat
Real estate
BTC & ETH (spot / cold storage)
+ small bag of alts: AAVE, HYPE, LINK, etc.. will never sell.
And a fat gold long position with avg entry of $3,898.
And a fat silver long position with avg entry of $59.27.
Oh, and a meme coin called $PENGUIN which I think will run regardless. (As did PEPE in the peak of the bear market when BTC was at its lows).
I’m avoiding leverage w/Bitcoin until I see a capitulation bottom. That’s when I like to strike.
However, I’m being cautious. *A-rotation to some-degree must start at some point with bitcoin. If not, we have all been delusional.
If you’re exiting crypto now, you’ve come all this way to leave at the last hurdle before BTC gets priced in.
I don’t care what anyone says but BTC is massively undervalued. Too many perceive it in dollars vs what it actually is.
It’s digital money freedom scarce, moveable, decentralized from government / bank control and is the future of money.
$WYNN
According to historical facts & my own experience:
1- September is always bad, but it’s the bad before the good.
2- October till February are normally the most bullish months for altcoins. In 2023 & 2024 Previously i gave multiple 50-200x calls during these months (post below👇)
3- $ICE Is launching in the most bullish months confirming the possibility of it going on a 50-100x + uptrend from October till February.
Hold your horses, buy the dips we get & enjoy from October till February.