Olivia
Online
Toma
@CryptoToma22
Joined July 2023
117 Following
81 Followers
755 Posts
Markets dump a little and everyone makes it look like Bitcoin has chosen its direction.
I get it, at first glance it looks similar. The same "bear range" as the previous on.
Early on I was also in the same camp as you follow the trend until proven otherwise.
Yet slowly, that actually happened. The proven otherwise part.
At the end of the day everything each and every one of us does is speculating. So guarantees don't exist.
Yet slowly to me the current pattern has been turning into a bottoming pattern.
1/ Recovered higher than my bear continuation scenario
2/ Not a brutal sell-off at key levels
3/ Longer in length than a quick bear really as well
Then why are we dropping a bit?
(and yes I say a bit as it's really nothing yet).
Simple, we have yet to make a higher low. A correction to even the low-mid 70s is entirely possible if the bottom is already in.
Basically the opposite with what we have been doing in the downtrend for the past 6 months +
For me it's pretty simple:
I've been relatively early on spotting the downtrend/bear market last year.
Then I go back to looking at structure again. Whenever it shows up.
That could have happened as early as the 80-98k range (it wasn't and I've been vocal on this).
It could have also not happened in the current 60-80k range and even lower.
But it did, at least to me. The 60-80k range has proven to be strong enough to turn things around for me.
So with structure changing, it's now adapting from the next correction being a lower low to a higher low and positioning for it.
Trauma makes you put up with a lot of shit you don't deserve because you don't wanna lose people. Healing helps you see your worth and set boundaries so you don't lose yourself. You finally understand that some people shouldn't be around you—no matter how much you love them.
Listen,
You grind for years with nothing to show.
Family thinks you're crazy.
You lose friends.
Then, one year, everything explodes.
All those wasted years suddenly make sense.
Your breakthrough is coming man.
If your young and trying to "make it" the big question is "how do I know what the right thing to do is".
The answer : You don't. Do LOTS of things that MAY work with LOTS of effort. The path will reveal itself and you'll stumble into what you are good at and enjoy.
Then go all in.
Action clears uncertainty.
The best way to ruin and delay your life results is spending time the discomfort of risk and waiting for certainty to just "happen".
It doesn't work like that.
Truly : Just do stuff with max effort till something feels right. Then commit to it. The path will then expand more.
At your peak what you do will likely not look like what you did at the start SO the thing doesn't matter, just the starting.
There have been days and days, and even now, when I have repeated and continue to repeat over and over again how you should behave. Not to lecture you, but to protect you.
In times like these, the priority is not to 'make the big move', but to preserve your capital. Because without capital, there is no second chance.
Take a few stops? Normal. Inevitable. It's part of the game, especially when the market is dirty, manipulated, with no clear direction.
The difference is not made by those who don't take stops. It is made by those who take small, controlled stops, with the right size and calculated risk.
If you trade with your head, with discipline and intelligent exposure, these phases will not devastate you. They will pass you by.
And while 90% burn out due to excessive leverage, overtrading and impulsiveness... you remain clear-headed.
Until the 'easy mode' returns …where structure, liquidity and momentum are aligned ….you have only one task: to stay alive in the market.
Because when the expansionary phase arrives, those who have protected their capital will be relaxed, ready and capitalised.
The others will watch from the sidelines.
Trading is not constant adrenaline. It is management. It is survival.
And those who survive... then print.
The real edge is not entering often, but entering at the right time.
In trading, the number one rule is not to make money, it is to avoid losing it.
If you protect your capital, opportunities will always come back.
Learn this and you will be better than 99% of the people out there.
When the altcoin market lacks volume, the first thing you need to accept is that technical analysis loses much of its reliability.
Volume is the fuel of movement: without real participation, even the cleanest levels — supports, resistances, boxes, 0.75, liquidity — are easily breached or only respected temporarily.
In these phases, the price moves 'empty', with sudden spikes, fake breakouts and continuous deviations that are not followed up.
The result is that setups that, under normal conditions, would have a very high probability of working... are invalidated simply because the mass of capital needed to confirm the movement is lacking.
This is exactly why you have seen me much less active in recent days.
It is not a lack of opportunity — it is risk management.
When there is no volume: the market becomes more manipulable
triggers lose precision
stops are taken more easily
the risk/return ratio deteriorates dramatically
And after years of repeating it, you should know by now:
not being in a position is still a position. And if you want to trade anyway... do so, but with low sizes where your risk is zero or close to zero.
Staying liquid, observing and waiting for real participation to return is often the most professional choice a trader can make.
Capital is defended first, attacked later.
The top is not in.
The market is not over.
Anyone who is parroting this does not understand the macro and global liquidity situation.
We have been in a deep liquidity constricting environment for years, and Crypto has not pushed overall because it is a vehicle of that liquidty we have not had.
BTC has pushed on institutional adoption and global acceptance.
Stocks are only pushing because of AI.
GOLD has been pushing because of financial and trade uncertainty.
There has not been an overall bull market. It is only BTC and a select few others, and the exact same in the stock market.
Most stocks, like most crypto, are under-performing...
And that is because of how the macro has been for years.
BUT that is literally about to change, and we are leaving the liquidity constricting phase and re-entering expansion.
Let me explain guys.
- TGA is at $1tn(the highest in 4 years).
As soon as the US Gov reopens a lot of this will be emptied into the reserves, increasing liquidity and lending, pushing M2 about $1tn, adding large fuel for risk assets. If we were entering a bear market this would be bottoming out, not peaking.
- ON RRP is at near zero
The Overnight Reverse Repo is at near zero which shows us that all money is parked in private markets. If we were entering a bear market and a liquidity constricting environment this would be accelerating aggressively, just like it did in 2021/22, as Money market funds stop fucking with treasuries and seek safe haven from liquidity constriction.
- QT is ending
The FED has been reducing their balance sheet for 4 years, from $9tn to $6.5tn, reducing liquidity and stifling lending, which fucks growth entirely. December 1st this stops and liquidity begins to enter expansion again. $25bn/mo stops falling off the balace sheet/reserves. If we were entering a bear marker this would not be happening.
- Interest rates are coming down
Interest rates coming down makes lending cheaper, promotes business and growth and increases liquidity in risk markets. If we were entering a bear market, rates would not be coming down alongside all these other factors.
- China and Japan stimulating
China have been stimulating all year, and Japan have announced a further $93bn fiscal package and are keeping interest rates at 0.50%. This Yen stimulus enables the Yen carry trade to continue which creates a risk on environment, funelling capital straight into riskier assets.
You CANNOT compare this current market to 2021 in any way shape or form it is worlds apart.
You cannot compare it to 2019 either... the financial landscape was in crisis then and the FED stopped QT because liquidity was getting so low SOFR rates were hitting 10% and the system was cracking.
Right now the financial situation is controlled and easing, and the liquidity is about to flow in a big way.
We literally have a super cocktail of liquidity on the very near horizon, better than anything we have had in years.
The markets are not going to enter a bear market just as they are about to receive huge liquidity injections.
It's impossible.
And this is all happening whilst BTC is about to hit its 1W 50SMA and everyone is capitulating.
Coincidence? No.
Understand where we are, understand the macro, and understand how this game works.
You are being shaken out on the eve of liquidity xmas and no one is looking at it properly.
The ONLY thing that matters for Crypto is liquidity, and we have been in a liquidity starved environment for years.
This is why Alts have suffered so greatly... they are the highest risk asset in the world, and need positive liquidity to run.
This cycle has played out longer because this process has ben delayed and the FED have held rates too high for too long...
But it has to change, and it is about to change.
Don't fuck it up here.
Ok the aim is to explain clearly how the crypto market works today and share my objective view.
I am not speaking from personal convictions or narrative, but by analysing data, cash flows and the behaviour of market players. I want to provide a realistic and up-to-date interpretation of how the sector has evolved, so that everyone can understand the dynamics that drive it today and make informed decisions.
Institutional investors have changed the crypto market and they have also changed the altcoin cycle.
In previous years, the market was driven almost entirely by retail investors: impulsive movements, strong euphoria, predictable cycles (Bitcoin first ,after ETH and then altseason ). Today, this is no longer the case.
With the entry of institutional investors, ETF,funds and quantitative desks, liquidity is no longer spread across the entire market... it is concentrated on asset classes with the best risk/return profile and regulation,
and above all, it follows structured flows, not emotions.
Bitcoin and Ethereum have become institutional assets: managed through ETF
Here, the cycle is no longer 'speculative' but driven by capital flows. Altcoins are the ones that have felt the impact of institutional investors entering the market the most. In the past, after the halving, all you had to do was wait and an 'altseason' would almost automatically arrive. Today, it no longer works that way.
Capital is no longer distributed everywhere: institutional investors choose carefully where to put their liquidity. They only enter projects with a strong narrative, sufficient liquidity and solid tokenomics. Everything else is ignored.
Low-capitalisation altcoins become hunting grounds: they are easier to manipulate, attract liquidations and create extreme movements without continuity. Especially today, with over 26 million tokens and low-quality projects in circulation, selection has become crucial. Supply is virtually infinite, while liquidity is not. In such a saturated environment, institutional capital has no interest in distributing resources across assets lacking fundamentals: it focuses only on those that offer liquidity, structure and sustainability over time.
If you can master this one thing you will make big money, easily.
Because making money in this game is actually very simple...
Yet it is extremely hard to action it.
Here is the hard fact you need to understand.
The more dangerous an entry feels, the safer it actually is.
And the safer an entry feels, the more dangerous it actually is.
99% of market participants get peak bearish after long corrections and peak bullish after long pumps.
This is because the prices going up gradually build confidence until they have gone up so much, bags are pushing, people are shilling their gains hard and everyone is now getting FOMO and feeling confident to buy because of green candles.
Then when prices go down, the exact same thing happens, just in reverse.
But this is literally the single worst way to behave in this market.
What you have to understand is that the longer something has dumped, the closer it is to pumping.
And the closer it has dumped to key HTF levels, the more safe it is to bid because of how likely it is to react positively to that key level.
Which is exactly why sentiment is always the worst before the market reverses.
So... if you have:
1. A long corrective price action
2. Very negative sentiment
3. At a very key support level
Your risk to buy there is SO MUCH lower than if you were to buy after a few days/weeks of pumps.
Yet, everyone does the exact opposite, every single time.
The cold hard fact is this.
The more we have dumped, the more negative the sentiment, and the closer we are to HTF support...
The more bullish you should be and the safer you should feel.
The more we have pumped, the more bullish the sentiment, and the closer we are to HTF resistance...
The more bearish you should be and the more at risk you should feel.
Winning at this game is understanding this paradox, but hardly anyone is capable of transcending their emotions and will continually make the wrong choices.
"Crypto trading and investing is the hardest way to make easy money".
Whatever seems obvious, is not.
When we have:
- Extremely negative sentiment
- Mass liquidations and capitulations
- Crypto holders rotating to pumped up stocks and metals
- Metals holders grave dancing on BTC
- Total beginners telling experienced guys its over
- FUD everywhere and arguing in group chats
- Everyone begging to just break even
At the same time as being right on HTF support, that is a fucking massive bid.
If you cannot understand that, you should give up now because you will always make the wrong choices.
Gold and Bitcoin move extremely close together.
> Same macro structure: Gold prints it first.
> 2020 cycle: Gold cycle top = Bitcoin parabolic start (purple circle)
> On lower timeframes now:
Gold next leg = Bitcoin local top (red circles)
Gold local top = Bitcoin next leg (blue circles)
@Sykodelic_ If you survive this market and come out ahead, you are a true warrior who’s earned his treasure. This is what separates the men from the boys
This market has been death by a 1000 cuts.
No sugar coating it whatsoever, this shit has been very hard to navigate.
And unless you have been early to new rotations, you have been chopped up, rugged, or held things to near dust.
Even the best projects have really struggled.
The main difference to this cycle hasn't been the dilution...
It's been the time.
The time it's taken for the market to move higher creates fear.
Fear creates doubt.
Doubt creates jeetery and jeetery destroys bags.
Everyone knows that no matter how good something is, its pump will not sustain.
By this point in every previous cycle the market has experienced a parabolic advance that creates the highest bullish sentiment...
But this cycle that has not happened yet.
But the main thing I want to put across is just because this hasn't happened yet, does not mean it wont.
The main issue we have had is that it HAS NOT happened, not that it has happened and everything is dead anyway.
BITCOIN has not yet entered true price discovery
TOTAL has not yet entered true price discovery
TOTAL2 + TOTAL3 have not yet broken out
OTHERS is not even near ATHs
All whilst every other market in the world is experiencing new highs after new highs.
Crypto is not dead it is simply lagging behind.
And with equities and Gold coming close at least a local top, with QT finishing and financial conditions easing...
Crypto's time will come.
You just need a lot more patience and resilience to make it in this market this time around.
But as I said, it has been very hard.
So you are not the only one not winning constantly...
It is like that for 99% of people.
But you must stay in the game...
Don't quit here.
In any walk of life you should never quit
This game no different, the harder it gets the harder you must work
Nobody is going to hand anything to you
So you can sit at home feeling a victim, or you can lock in & keep working
Generational opportunities are in front of u
instead of researching who caused the nuke (couldn’t care less)
figure out how you’ll position after the biggest alt wipeout ever and make some money
If you take profit and later see price run, you will regret it
If you hold the trade, and price retraces, you will regret it
Bank it or hold it, there will always be regret
But having one of those regrets is better than having the other
Take notes for the final phase of this bull market
1/ Don’t DCA in.
Dollar-cost-averaging works early in a cycle. At the end, time is against you. If you’re late, you need conviction bets.
2/ DCA out.
On the way up, scale out. Don’t dream about selling the exact top — nobody times it perfectly. Secure wins instead.
3/ Focus on winners.
Cut dead weight. Don’t waste emotional energy on bags that never recovered. Winners compound. Losers drain you.
4/ Don’t lock tokens.
Staking rewards look good until your tokens are stuck while the bull ends. Flexibility is worth far more than a few extra percent of yield. Liquidity is freedom.
5/ Rotate less.
This late in the game, chasing every narrative leads to overtrading. Sit on your hands. You can’t catch them all. Accept missing some.
6/ This is a marathon, not a sprint.
The people who make life-changing gains are the ones who preserve capital into the next cycle. Survive first. Wealth is built over multiple cycles.
7/ Don’t baghold exit coins.
When it’s time to leave, don’t wait for tokens that “didn’t pump yet.” Some coins never pump again. Hope is not a strategy.
8/ Cash out regularly.
Don’t wait for “the big exit.” Take profits steadily. Build trust with your bank — you’ll need them for bigger moves outside of crypto.
9/ Concentrate your bets.
Over-diversification kills upside. A 100x on $5 won’t change your life. Position sizing matters. Focus on high-conviction plays.
10/ Remember volatility.
Near the top, swings are violent. Don’t let green candles make you greedy or red candles shake you out. Stick to your plan.
11/ Narratives move fast.
AI, gaming, RWA, memecoins — narratives rotate weekly. Don’t chase them all. Stick to a few strong themes and ride them with discipline.
12/ Think outside crypto.
Use this cycle to set up for the next phase of your life. Real estate, businesses, equities — crypto should fund your future, not be your only future.
13/ Know when enough is enough.
Greed kills more than fear. Have a number where you’ll say “I made it” and commit to it.
14/ This isn’t your last shot.
Cycles repeat. If you miss this one, there will be another. Stay liquid, stay disciplined, stay alive.
15/ The bull makes you rich. The bear keeps you rich.
Don’t blow it all just because the market feels invincible right now. Discipline is more powerful than luck.
Let’s make the best out of it🫡
This is a ruthless game man
They liquidated everyone in September and now running it back up in October Q4
This game is not for the faint hearted
When those people win big as traders and people call them lucky they could never do what we do
Respect to the survivors
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