Cryptowriter

💍❤️ @0xWands Founder @LumoraMarketing The Trader SCUBA Diver

[Cryptowriter @cryptowriter]

My thoughts currently:

- Macro is extremely terrible. You can delay a recession/crash but at this point it’s unavoidable.

- US government wants you believing Iran conflict is the reason for the current inflation + yields spike. This is not true. It’s adding fuel to the fire but the main culprit is AI capex crowding out government bonds. For the first time in history the private sector is crowding out the public sector for investor’s money.

- Interest rates are hence going so much higher than anyone expects but will probably not cause the shock everyone is thinking they would cause by spiking up.

- Although I said recession is possible I don’t believe a 2008 scenario is possible due to the simple fact that the banking sector is solid AF. So yes, the AI trade will blow up big and bad but banks are fine and no systemic issues will follow that collapse. Job losses could spike and an ugly stagflation environment could persist for a while but by no means will there be any systemic risk or massive collapse or any bear porn doomposting. It will be a huge buy the dip opportunity.

- The era of the fed holding money hose aka QE and firing it at everybody is over. From now on, QE’s only job will either be to bail out the banking sector or stabilize it. Internal plumbing within the financial sector will be the move forward. Sound money isn’t coming back as governments have to fund ridiculously overblown budgets but neither will the free QE era of 2009-2022.

- A massive energy shock is in the making and nobody has any idea how bad it will get or when it will end. That’s the biggest tailwind now.

- AI capex is reaching its limits for now. This is wave 1 of early companies and 90% of them won’t survive to reap the rewards just like what happened with the dotcom bubble. All the AI is dangerous and will destroy us all advocates are a bunch of clowns.

- Massive massive rehiring will come again in a couple of years tops. The biggest losers will be the companies who rushed to lay off their staff early on. They destroyed their public picture forever.

- All markets are at a coinflip right now and the direction is 50/50 at best but considering all what I said and all this bearishness, tbh it makes sense that shitcoins pop like popcorn. The only counter argument I have here is what if they already had their scam pump and oblivion is upon us? I will play any dips we get but at best with 25% of my portfolio and will be happy with whatever 50-100% profit I make if any.

- Unfollow the crypto will decouple a pump on its own crowd. Your better off without unless you wanna test losing all of your money before the real BTFD moment. Any bets here should never be made with 100% size neither on the bullish or bearish sides.

- Shorting right now is dangerously destructive despite it being the best R/R in almost all markets except energy.

- Key is to survive, make monthly income and stack $$$ as I believe whatever is coming will make plenty of new millionaires.

- Finally, for freaking God’s sake ditch the fucking meme platforms before you lose everything you have you psychotic stupid fucks.

Over and out.

[Cryptowriter @cryptowriter]

Overnight bros futuring around $SPX

[Cryptowriter @cryptowriter]

71-65k dump followed by a rally to new local hihs or even 100k followed by a dump to 50k min

Lemme tell you CT ain't ready for that AT ALL. But it aligns well with how the US stock market bubble could pop.

Lots of respected traders were expecting Q1 2027 to be the painful one for stocks and subsequently crypto. This move could be the canary in the coal mine and not necessarily the beginning of the end. Think of last week as the equivalent of what happened in mid december 2024. It was the early warning sign after which new highs were reached but a few months later NDQ was down 30% and BTC was down 35%.

It's definitely not a buy & hold market but a trader's market. You will regret not selling/being passive more than selling/being active.

[Cryptowriter @cryptowriter]

Let me tell you the best crypto contracts i got actually the only ones i got never needed a test or a preview or whatever. They checked my profile, liked my work and offered money.

Not a single test needing job be it paid or unpaid led to anything good for me. If there is a need for a test it means you’re not a fit.

[Cryptowriter @cryptowriter]

@DeItaone He lasted almost a week lol

[Cryptowriter @cryptowriter]

@DeItaone Complete bs

[Stefan @Stefan_B_Trades]

Gm

Congrats if you’re still here, just a little bit lower

[Cryptowriter @cryptowriter]

@sue_xbt Sorry for the annoying answer but ppl asking that question is the biggest sign the bottom isnt in. Then how do you know? When the account owner stops posting for months on end 🤷‍♂️ because they gave up rage quit and sold everything

[Cryptowriter @cryptowriter]

@SMtrades_ You got balls to do what I can’t

At least not with real size

Gl man i need to learn to grow the balls to do that kind of trades

[Cryptowriter @cryptowriter]

I think whatever off market hours bounce will be wiped out by us market open.

I really don’t know what to expect as everyone was waiting to buy the dip including me and across all risk on.

Max pain scenario is down only as it should be never forget that:

[Cryptowriter @cryptowriter]

@edzitron ikr

[Cryptowriter @cryptowriter]

@AriaLikesStocks Are you new here or smth? Real reactions happen on market open... This is all just BS reactions. Wait for market open at least

[Cryptowriter @cryptowriter]

The problem with the latest drop in btc is that it happened in the last hour of the weekly and 2W close, manipulating it to close BELOW the previous body candle and avoiding a SFP by a small margin. The close now looks ugly. Period. This didn’t happen in summer 2023 nor march 2023. The caveat or glimmer of hope is that usdt dom closed below and made sfp. They really don’t wanna giveaway their intentions. Meanwhile total1/2/3 and others all look uglier than btc not to mention the horrendous behavior on eth has no beautiful/positive way to look at it.

One data point (usdt) looks optimistic and the rest look ugly AF. Dead cat bounce imo and we head lower. Got a long though so will eat a stop if wrong.

[Frank Curzio @FrankCurzio]

It looks like the AI layoff boom has started to backfire.

I was just going through a Reuters investigation on Meta, and holy shit...

They drew up plans to cut some teams by as much as 60% and let AI agents do the work. THEN Zuckerberg called off the next round of layoffs hours before the first one even started.

And when you look at the numbers... they tell you why.

Engineers were pushing out 220% more code, BUT major technical and security incidents jumped 40%.

So people spent 70% more time putting out fires.

AI cranked out way more work, and humans spent way more time cleaning it up.

A different report I saw this week showed something similar.

32% of hiring managers said they brought back the exact jobs they cut for AI.

Think about how dumb that is. You fire people, pay a fortune for AI, then pay again to hire the same people back.

Look, I’m no AI bear. I use AI every single day.

It saves me a shit ton of time and I’m not going back. It’s an incredible tool.

But market forces are still market forces.

Every boom in history has been overhyped, and every CEO wanted to stand up and tell Wall Street he could do more with half the people.

Now from what I’m seeing, reality is kicking in.

It costs way more than they thought, it breaks shit, and you still need people who know what the hell they’re doing.

Even the AI companies are feeling it. Elon just cut Grok’s usage limits and admitted it costs more to run than it brings in.

I still think AI is a great bet, and I’m still buying the companies building the data centers. But you need balance, and the guys who went all in on firing everyone are learning that the hard way.

Be careful out there.

[Cryptowriter @cryptowriter]

Not that institutions don’t fomo or get wiped out but until march 2025 the majority of these etf buyers were retail i think north of 70%

[Cryptowriter @cryptowriter]

Crypto is still so ignorant that ETF flows are being pictured as institutional demand. These are retail guys. They fomo just as you and even worse. Look at ETF inflows//outflows near the lows and highs and you will see. It’s not always telling but many times you will see large etf outflow near the bottom or large inflow near the highs. Pure fomo behavior!

[Stefan @Stefan_B_Trades]

Watching up only traders turning into investors 🌊

[Cryptowriter @cryptowriter]

This guy gets it lol

[Mehdi Hasan @mehdirhasan]

“If he wants to pass Trumpcare-for-All, I'm ok with it.. Donald, if you're watching, we'll put your name on it. You get to be the American president who finally guaranteed health care for every single American."

@AbdulElSayed to me today, lol.

Full intv: https://t.co/W8g8V0efSF

[Cryptowriter @cryptowriter]

I said the fed will hike in September, we won’t get clarity act and that alts will correct as back then they were topping. I said a black swan event ill happen soon in tradfi and a major crypto hack will happen too and that AI is in big danger.

Their content the last two months was the exact opposite of what i wrote. Even when i had a second interview they didn’t mention that i was right about what i predicted because of a very simple fact. THEY HAVE NO CLUE WTF IS GOING ON. They don’t make money from trading or they do but only when easy mode is on and everything goes up other than that it’s all paid groups and paid ads. 0 skills and lots of attitude and ego

[Cryptowriter @cryptowriter]

You know i interviewed for a position in crypto banter in late august early September. Did a test and gave them a fucking playbook of how exactly last 2 months will play out. It got followed to a T and i still got ghosted 😂

I was never gonna accept but I was curious to see what they had to offer.

[Cryptowriter @cryptowriter]

@StockShark16 Let’s use past data to analyze what has been widely agreed upon as the most strangest and weirdest market conditions in human history after a 17 years old bull market. I mean what’s the worst that could happen?shit goes up all the time and the stock market can’t crash anymore :)