Christopher Smart, PhD CFA

Managing Partner, Arbroath Group, the geopolitical strategy firm. Fmr US Treasury & White House.

[Christopher Smart, PhD CFA @csmart]

But the real risk isn't the headline crises. It's the slow burn: ballooning debt, sticky inflation, and political gridlock. Moody's downgraded the US for exactly this reason. That's the story markets will be watching most closely. 5/5

[Christopher Smart, PhD CFA @csmart]

Everyone says geopolitical risk is at historic highs. Markets just hit fresh highs anyway. But investors don't always understand how #geopolitics and #markets interact. 1/5

[Christopher Smart, PhD CFA @csmart]

Globalization is also a shock absorber. Chinese tariffs? Southeast Asia fills the gap. US tears up trade deals? UK and EU accelerate talks with India and LatAm. Even a Hormuz closure triggers a scramble for Canadian, Brazilian and US supply. 4/5

[Christopher Smart, PhD CFA @csmart]

Following the dizzying shifts in Asian security concerns laid out at the Shangrila Dialogue this weekend, it was great to think through the implications for defense ministers and investors with @cherykang @mandycnbc on @asiasquawkbox

https://t.co/sLZmPalCI5

[Christopher Smart, PhD CFA @csmart]

Consider the geopolitical challenges of today’s European leader. A Middle East war you believe to be a mistake is sending another energy shock through your economy. A flood of subsidized manufactured goods from China continues to undermine what’s left of your industrial base. And any future national security plans are caught between a menacing Vladimir Putin and a mercurial Donald Trump.

Then, if you are UK Prime Minister Keir Starmer, the floor beneath your feet collapses. If you invest in gilts or sterling, so does your portfolio...

[Christopher Smart, PhD CFA @csmart]

Always good to finish a busy news week with @jmathieureports @kaileyleinz https://t.co/ftltEt92lC

[Christopher Smart, PhD CFA @csmart]

This was after a trick question from @JMathieuReports …

[Bloomberg TV @BloombergTV]

Incoming Fed Chair Kevin Warsh cannot "credibly" argue for rate cuts "at this stage," says Christopher Smart, managing partner and founder of the Arbroath Group https://t.co/6nWNulJ1zj

[Christopher Smart, PhD CFA @csmart]

@Brad_Setser If it’s not profitable for them to make them here, then they won’t? But why wouldn’t they want to try with the same domestic content requirements they impose on foreign carmakers in China?

[Christopher Smart, PhD CFA @csmart]

What say you, @Brad_Setser? And to be clear, they would not be allowed to import battery kits.

[Christopher Smart, PhD CFA @csmart]

Shocking proposal in my latest @barronsonline:

If Trump wants to stabilize the relationship with China, relieve the affordability squeeze, and re-energize his electoral base, he should surprise Xi with an offer to open the U.S. market to Chinese cars. The fact is he can either watch as Chinese cars are sold everywhere except America, or he can allow them to be made in America, by Americans.

#Trump #Xi #China

https://t.co/B3UDjCCxjm

[Christopher Smart, PhD CFA @csmart]

@matthewswspence Absolutely. It has to be more than assembling kits to make sense.

[Christopher Smart, PhD CFA @csmart]

Shocking proposal in my latest @barronsonline:

If Trump wants to stabilize the relationship with China, relieve the affordability squeeze, and re-energize his electoral base, he should surprise Xi with an offer to open the U.S. market to Chinese cars. The fact is he can either watch as Chinese cars are sold everywhere except America, or he can allow them to be made in America, by Americans.

#Trump #Xi #China

https://t.co/B3UDjCCxjm

[Christopher Smart, PhD CFA @csmart]

Not Everyone Loves a Parade! https://t.co/3PlfY3XTkZ

[Christopher Smart, PhD CFA @csmart]

Not Everyone Loves a Parade!

Ten weeks into the Iran War, the conventional wisdom argues that Putin’s Russia is an unintended winner. But the oil spike only exposed the weakness of the Russian economic engine. The Gulf turmoil has turned into an unexpected boon for Ukrainian diplomacy. And the war’s geopolitical shifts will only drive Putin into even deeper dependence on China’s Xi Jinping.
https://t.co/iJNWQnYLEz

[Christopher Smart, PhD CFA @csmart]

#Geopolitics #Markets #IranWar‌
My latest at https://t.co/4jSufjdfem

[Christopher Smart, PhD CFA @csmart]

In the Strait, What If Neither Side Blinks? https://t.co/gxSOd1twJd via @BarronsOnline

In @barronsonline 's today, I describe what we might see when we stare into the abyss.

[Christopher Smart, PhD CFA @csmart]

If the White House uses dollar swaps lines to bail out favored allies or attaches geopolitical strings to the loans, it will damage a backstop that has headed off disaster in the last two global crises, says @csmart

https://t.co/NbW4RjWOVf

[Christopher Smart, PhD CFA @csmart]

@Brad_Setser Excellent news, indeed.

[Christopher Smart, PhD CFA @csmart]

When passengers across the aisle ask to borrow your life jacket as the flight gets bumpy, you will wonder what they know that you don’t. It’s the same when one of the richest Gulf states asks the US for a backup credit line. My latest in ⁦@opinion⁩ https://t.co/Sn8kaVm5I4