CT Election Guide

Connecticut elections made simple: local, legislative, and statewide races—all the info in one place.
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[CT Election Guide @ctelectionguide]

SD-35 has been fairly inelastic, but it's hard to ignore the narrow margins seen in this district in previous cycles, as only a narrow shift can move this seat towards the Democrats.

In 2018, 2020 (Sen. Dan Champagne) and 2022 (Sen. Jeff Gordon) won this district by only 1-2 points under similar lines. In 2024, Gordon did better winning by 6

This is a Harris +3 seat and Gordon hasn't overperformed the partisan leans of this district as much as other GOP incumbent.

[CT Election Guide @ctelectionguide]

Connecticut State Senate Ratings Update

5 GOP-held seats shift toward Dems amid a bluer national environment and Gov. Lamont’s strong polling, putting a 28D-8R majority in play.

SD-28, SD-36: Lean D -> Likely D
SD-35 -> Toss-Up -> Lean D
SD-7, SD-30 -> Likely R -> Lean R

[CT Election Guide @ctelectionguide]

An odd race in CT-HD-31, moderate Democratic incumbent Jill Barry lost the party convention to Moise Carelus in May, then skipped the primary.

Barry is running as an independent with GOP support in the general election against Carelus. Carelus is favored in this Harris +25 seat.

[CT Election Guide @ctelectionguide]

@bayshore_beagle In Connecticut

[CT Election Guide @ctelectionguide]

State Rep. Tracy Marra (R-Darien) is running unopposed in HD-141, the bluest seat in the state held by a Republican legislator.

Marra won by 16 points in 2024, despite Kamala Harris winning her seat by a large 61-38 margin, the largest overperformance of any legislator in 2024.

[CT Election Guide @ctelectionguide]

@CoreyWFrate It would have definitely been closer in this environment no matter what if contested.

It would still prob be a Likely R if contested cause I do think there will be less ticket splitting in a lot of districts this year. 40 points in this political environment would be absurd.

[CT Election Guide @ctelectionguide]

3 Republican legislators in seats won by Kamala Harris are unopposed. Rep. Tracy Marra in Harris +22, HD-141, Rep. Christine Carpino in Harris +8, HD-32, and Rep. Jason Buchsbaum in Harris +3, HD-69.

Carpino notably has been unopposed in 3 of the last 4 cycles.

[CT Election Guide @ctelectionguide]

State Rep. Tracy Marra (R-Darien) is running unopposed in HD-141, the bluest seat in the state held by a Republican legislator.

Marra won by 16 points in 2024, despite Kamala Harris winning her seat by a large 61-38 margin, the largest overperformance of any legislator in 2024.

[CT Election Guide @ctelectionguide]

Republican Chris Shea released an internal poll from OnMessage Inc. showing him down only 6 to incumbent Rep. Jahana Hayes in CT-05, 45-51.

With the race not expected to be competitive, national groups have stayed out. Shea hopes to show others the race is close.

[Chris Shea @SheaforCongress]

NEW Poll shows CT-05 is the CLOSEST race in Connecticut!

And when voters hear about Chris’ background and Jahana Hayes radical record in Congress, her numbers plummet!

Our movement has brought together Republicans, Democrats, and Independents, because they’re sick of DC politicians only out for themselves.

Less than two weeks to go until Election Day, let’s win this!

[CT Election Guide @ctelectionguide]

@KaneHisKnee hmm that's weird. I see that on the sample ballot. He's not on the ballot in Putnam or Thompson which is most of the district. Since Cournoyer removed his name from the ballot, I would think if votes for him wouldn't count.

[CT Election Guide @ctelectionguide]

Connecticut State House Ratings 2026

Democrats are poised to expand their supermajorities in two weeks, targeting open seats and GOP-held Harris-won districts.

Republicans hope to avoid disaster, as losses in marginal seats could leave them with fewer than 35 of 151 seats.

[CT Election Guide @ctelectionguide]

@americanrobinct A variety of factors including 2024 presidential results, candidate overperformance, strengths of challengers, previous results in the district, location, etc

[CT Election Guide @ctelectionguide]

@KaneHisKnee The other Republican candidate (Ryan Cournoyer), removed his name from the ballot or else yeah I would have it closer.

it was an open seat in 2024, and Stewart isn't the strongest incumbent but it's also the 4th most Republican seat in the state at Trump +19 but fair point

[CT Election Guide @ctelectionguide]

@rosatijohn Yes

[WTNH News 8 @WTNH]

New early voting numbers have been released for the state of Connecticut, showing that more than 170,000 votes have been cast as of Thursday!

Click the link below for the full breakdown of the numbers.

https://t.co/WctWnpIQ5i

[Hartford Courant @hartfordcourant]

From the opening statements, Gov. Ned Lamont and Republican challenger Ryan Fazio came out swinging in their first debate Thursday night as they clashed on everything from taxes and electric rates to President Donald Trump’s policies.… https://t.co/tGD9QgVEcP

[WTNH News 8 @WTNH]

The state has released data revealing that more than 100,000 votes have been cast in the first two days of Connecticut's early voting, with Democrats making up a large majority.

Click the link here for the full data:

https://t.co/WctWnpIifK

[John Craven @johncraven1]

NEW: 80,076 people have already cast ballots in the first 2 days of Early Voting, according to @CTSotS -- plus an additional 25,458 absentee ballots

Biggest turnout in West Hartford, Milford, Stratford, Fairfield, Norwalk, and Stamford

[John Craven @johncraven1]

UPDATE: 42,241 people voted early on the first day yesterday, according to @CTSotS

59% Democrats
15% Republican
26% Unaffiliated/Other

[CT Election Guide @ctelectionguide]

Sacred Heart/WFSB/CT Insider Poll
2026 Connecticut Governor General Election
Digital Survey
10/6-10/12 | 1000 RV | MOE +/- 3.1

🔵Ned Lamont - 53%
🔴Ryan Fazio - 31%
🟡Undecided - 15%

Sept Poll - Lamont 48-34

Likely Voters

🔵Ned Lamont - 59%
🔴Ryan Fazio - 33%